The magnitude 7.7 and 7.6 earthquakes, centered in the Kahramanmaras province, affected more than 13 million people across 11 provinces, including Adana, Adıyaman, Diyarbakır, Gaziantep, Hatay, Kilis, Malatya, Osmaniye, Sanliurfa, and Elazığ.

While we were trying to heal our wounds, the emergency of rebuilding the affected areas and getting ready for other disasters is on Turkey’s agenda. This can only be achieved with new, rational, science-based, regulated, transparent, ethical, and honest systems.

Ilkay Demirdag

The magnitude 7.7 and 7.6 earthquakes, centered in the Kahramanmaras province, affected more than 

13 million people across 11 provinces, including Adana, Adıyaman, Diyarbakır, Gaziantep, Hatay, Kilis, Malatya, Osmaniye, Sanliurfa, and Elazığ.

While we were trying to heal our wounds, the emergency of rebuilding the affected areas and getting ready for other disasters is on Turkey’s agenda. This can only be achieved with new, rational, science-based, regulated, transparent, ethical, and honest systems.

In doing so, let us first evaluate this major disaster's economic, social, environmental, and governance dimensions.

Natural disasters cause adverse economic effects on employment, growth, and inflation in the short term. They also have negative long-term effects, such as reducing property, development, and growth.

Various organizations and economists are calculating the cost of the earthquake to Turkey. Estimates of the earthquake's damage range from 

. Its impact on growth is expected to be between 0.5 and 2 percentage points.

 estimates the direct cost of housing damage at 24 billion USD.

 that direct costs from the physical destruction of structures could reach 25 billion USD (2.5% of GDP). JP Morgan also expects a budget deficit of 4.5% of GDP and a current account deficit of 30 billion USD (3% of GDP).

According to the "2023 Kahramanmaras Earthquake Disaster Situation Report" published by 

the Turkish Enterprise and Business Confederation (TÜRKONFED)

A total of 13.4 million people, or 15.7% of the total population of Turkey, live in the provinces declared disaster areas.

The earthquake-affected provinces' share of the total national income is 9.3%, and the share of the agriculture, industry, and manufacturing sectors is higher than their share in GDP.

While the agricultural sector of 10 provinces accounts for 14.3% of the country's GDP, the finance and insurance sector's share is only 4.4%.

The provinces affected by the earthquake account for:

12% of cereal and other plant production,

16.3% of the small ruminants in the country.

The provinces in the disaster zone account for 8.7% of the country's total exports.

The earthquake is expected to cause a total loss of 84.06 billion USD, including:

10.4 billion USD in national income loss, and;

, based on previous disasters, it is predicted that earthquakes centered in Kahramanmaraş will affect 1% of the national income.

5) The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)

 also argues that the earthquake may cause a loss of up to 1% of GDP. EBRD lowered Turkey's 2023 growth forecast from 3.5% to 3% in this context.

Natural disasters create social disintegration as much as they cause physical destruction. The heavy damage that communities experience after natural disasters disrupts order and routine, and the process of re-establishing social cooperation and solidarity highlights the importance of social integration after the disaster.

As a result of the two earthquakes centered in Kahramanmaraş, there have been significant losses in a large area. Millions of families have lost their homes, jobs, and livelihoods. In addition, it is predicted that a large wave of migration will occur in a wide geography from Adana to Istanbul as a natural consequence of the earthquake. Although no data or official statement is available, experts predict that the demographic structure of cities will change in the coming period.

It is essential to restructure our cities, especially those that have been home to civilizations for centuries, such as Hatay, in a way that preserves their sociological and cultural infrastructure, prevents the population from migrating from the region, and develops sustainable development models in the region. Instead of quickly starting housing construction in the region, city, and regional planning should be done with a multidisciplinary and inclusive approach considering ecology, geology, architecture, and sociology. For this purpose, the state, NGOs, and private sector representatives must create an action plan to provide permanent welfare.

Solving the health and education needs of families who have lost their homes in the earthquake zone and providing psychological support are among the most crucial priority issues.

Due to the vast extent of the geography affected by the earthquake and the impact of winter conditions, the full size of the disaster's impact on rural nature and wildlife has yet to be fully known.

The region affected by the earthquake, especially Hatay, is home to many endemic plant and animal species. Chemical leaks from mines and industrial facilities may occur after the earthquake, and inspections must be urgently carried out in the region.

Experts state that the earthquake zone can generate 100 million tons of debris. This is equivalent to a pile of debris the size of 660 stadiums or Mount Erciyes. Many harmful substances exist for human health and the ecosystem in the debris scattered from the collapsed buildings due to the earthquake. Chemicals in insulation materials, harmful plastic derivatives, and asbestos are among the most important ones. The management of debris waste generated as a result of earthquakes should be carried out in accordance with the "Regulation on the Control of Excavation Soil, Construction, and Demolition Wastes" primarily.

When determining the debris disposal areas for the preservation of biodiversity, attention should be paid to the following issues:

Formation / preference of impermeable grounds,

Prevention of contact with underground and surface water sources,

Preservation of protection areas, wetlands, and wildlife habitats.

In cities affected by earthquakes, the underground infrastructure has suffered significant damage. The possibility of sewage mixing with drinking water is a major risk due to the damage to wastewater and drinking water infrastructure. In addition, the mixing of soil layers in the region due to the earthquake can also lead to the contamination of underground water resources.

Due to the lack of electricity in the disaster area, a lot of food has gone bad. Since the tap water is not usable, water supply is done with plastic bottles, and in the food distribution centers, disposable foam, paper, or plastic utensils are used due to hygiene conditions.

As a result, both organic and packaging waste has started to fill the streets of the cities. Organic waste poses a threat to human life, while other wastes create serious threats to the environment.

Urgent systems must be established to manage organic and inorganic wastes in new living areas such as tent cities or container cities. If the waste disposal problem is not adequately addressed or removed from living areas, serious soil contamination and subsequent groundwater pollution can occur. Rain will accelerate this process and the leaking of wastewater will mix with rainwater and enter nature in unwanted ways.

Another important issue related to the debris that will emerge due to the destruction is the coordination of recycling scrap and materials obtained from the debris. The scrap iron-steel obtained from all buildings is expected to be 1 million 750 thousand tons. The correct separation and coordination of the stages of recycling these materials obtained from the debris is necessary. Minimizing the debris by being separated at the source of debris waste should be the main priority.

From the first day of the disaster, what happened revealed a deep structural dysfunction in many critical institutions and organizations regarding planning, coordination, and communication, which caused disruptions in the processes and prevented aid from reaching its intended recipients.

To fill this gap, individuals, representatives of the private sector, and NGOs made great efforts to launch relief campaigns to reach the affected area. However, due to the lack of coordination in the field, there was significant waste of labor, time, and resources. On the other hand, individual relief efforts in the field also made coordination more difficult.

How should Sustainable Disaster Management be?

Starting from our most basic needs, such as shelter, nutrition, health, energy, transportation, and communication, we need a fair, transparent, sustainable, nature-friendly transformation based on a circular economy in all production and consumption models.

When evaluating the problems experienced in the acute phase, we once again experienced the importance of the following concepts for sustainable disaster management:

 Scientifically based planning should be made at the national and local levels for what to do before, during and after the disaster. The authorities and responsibilities of all institutions and organizations should be determined. City and regional planning should be reviewed according to disasters and necessary changes should be made quickly.

 To reduce disasters and damages, it is necessary to have an approach that prioritizes preparation and reducing risks before disasters occur, rather than using most of the resources during and after disasters. This approach should be sustainable and continuously improving. Reducing disaster risks is the most logical investment for sustainable development. Investments that are not made within the disaster management program result in damage after the disaster. Therefore, identifying, evaluating, and managing risks along with hazard and damage analysis is integral to sustainable development.

Environmental, Social, and Governance Focus:

 Environmental and social factors should be considered in disaster management and reconstruction processes, and appropriate governance structures should be established and their functionality should be tested according to disaster scenarios.

 Disaster awareness should be created in the community during the pre-disaster preparations, and work should be done on possible disasters that could occur in advance to minimize potential damage.

 All personnel involved in search and rescue, disaster management, and coordination should receive relevant training regularly.

 The entire process and coordination for disaster management should be system-designed. Relevant institutions and organizations should conduct disaster drills at regular intervals. All stakeholders actively involved in the field and aid to be directed to the field should be directed according to the needs of the field, in order to prevent losses in resources, time, and labor.

 Correct, clear, and regular information flows should be provided through the identified resources after disasters. In addition, critical infrastructure investments that are necessary to prevent telecommunication channels from being affected by disasters should be urgently completed.

Impact-Focused Philanthropy Models Development:

 Traditional philanthropy models need to change to create impact-focused action and action-oriented awareness. Instead of only providing financial resources, stakeholders need to integrate their knowledge, skills, social and business networks, and workforce into models that will create measurable impact. Impact Circles Foundation, established to develop and disseminate impact-focused philanthropy models, should conduct its work to create a sustainable future and provide development in this regard.

In short, as we prepare for the future, we need collective intelligence and a new thought and action plan. It's time for each of us to become active citizens. That means being aware that we are followers, partners, and stakeholders of every event in our streets, neighborhoods, and cities. We must know and defend our rights as citizens, speak up, stand in solidarity, and take ownership of our future.

*The wide range of estimated costs is due to differences in the studies' scope.

illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of leading Sustainability & Energy writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.

Hatay in the 2023 Gaziantep-Kahramanmaraş earthquakes by

We Need Sustainable Disaster Management

COP27 is essential in terms of being an event where climate change and its consequences are discussed with a global participation and directing countries to act together. COP27 brought together more than 45,000 participants to share ideas, and solutions, and build partnerships and coalitions. Indigenous peoples, local communities, cities, and civil society, including youth and children, showcased how they addressed climate change and shared how it impacts their lives.

The United Nations Climate Change Conference COP27, held in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, from November 6-18, was an important summit where decisions are expected to be taken to avoid the worst impacts of the climate crisis. The Conference brought together all parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). COP27 is essential in terms of being an event where climate change and its consequences are discussed with a global participation and directing countries to act together. COP27 brought together more than 45,000 participants to share ideas, and solutions, and build partnerships and coalitions. Indigenous peoples, local communities, cities, and civil society, including youth and children, showcased how they addressed climate change and shared how it impacts their lives.

Following the “Leaders' Summit” on November 7-8, thematic sessions on “Finance, Science, Youth and Future Generations, Decarbonization, Adaptation, and Agriculture, Gender, Water, Civil Society, Energy, Biodiversity” took place between November 9-16. A " Solutions " session was organized on the summit's last day.

The key agenda items of COP27 have been adaptation, climate crisis mitigation, and loss and damage mechanisms.

 Accelerating transformative action by countries, regions, cities, businesses, investors, and civil society organizations to adapt to the acute climate hazards facing vulnerable communities.

 Strengthen the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) announced by countries to limit the global temperature rise, which is already above 1.1 degrees Celsius, to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

 Compensation for economic losses suffered by developing countries due to the climate crisis by developed countries, which bear the greatest historical responsibility for the climate crisis.

I had a chance to experience the first week of 

 hosting many interesting discussions giving voice to young and 

 hosting the digital trade transformation for efficiency, sustainability, and inclusivity event.

 hosting interesting panels and networking events together with 

“Despite the focus on Loss and Damage, the first week was marked by the participation of more oil and gas lobbyists than delegates from the most vulnerable countries."

The striking data that came to the fore in the first week of the summit are as follows:

According to the World Meteorological Organization, the level of global temperature rose this year compared to the period 1850-1900: 1.15 degrees Celsius

According to the Global Carbon Budget Report, years remaining to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius with a 50 percent chance: 9

Number of countries committed to achieving Net Zero emissions by 2050: 138 (despite accounting for 80 percent of the world's population, these commitments are not yet reflected in emissions data)

According to Climate Action Tracker, an increase in natural gas capacity is expected to come online by 2030: 235%

According to Global Witness, the number of fossil fuel lobbyists at COP27: 636 (more than the total number of delegates from the ten countries most vulnerable to the devastating impacts of the climate crisis)

When I evaluate the dialogues, commitments, and discourses at COP27 in general, I assess the critical topics for the solution to the climate crisis problem as follows:

Creating financial resources for the realization of adaptation plans

Generating solutions with a perspective of Equality and Inclusion

Use of innovation and technology to achieve system changes that will prevent climate change

Developing mixed and new financing models for net zero targets

“Adaptation should not be set aside due to large-scale and non-climatic factors.”

Data on global greenhouse gas emissions released in the first week of the summit show that the emission reduction levels required to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius have not been achieved. On the other hand, natural disasters caused by climate crises seriously affect life worldwide. Many countries are developing adaptation programs to the effects of the climate crisis.

However, current growth patterns make exposure to climate hazards increasingly likely. Recent adaptation actions make a difference in some regions, but most prioritize immediate and near-term risks. This highlights the need for transformative action on adaptation.

According to the UNEP Adaptation Gap 2022 report released at COP27, international adaptation finance flows to developing countries increased by 4% to 29 billion USD in 2020. However, 350 billion USD of adaptation finance is needed annually until 2030. The gap in developing countries is 5 to 10 times larger than current international adaptation finance flows.

The war in Ukraine, global supply shortages, and the COVID-19 pandemic have triggered a global energy and food security crisis. Large-scale, non-climate factors cannot sideline adaptation. Unprecedented political will and many more long-term investments in adaptation are urgently needed.

COP27 saw significant progress on adaptation, with governments agreeing on the way forward for the Global Goals on Adaptation, which will conclude at COP28 and inform the first Global Stocktake, improving resilience among the most vulnerable. New pledges, totaling more than USD 230 million were made to the Adaptation Fund at COP27.

“The transition to net zero has to be fair and inclusive.”

Climate change is daily shaking people's lives in developed and developing countries. It affects everyone from one end of the world to the other, from the richest to the poorest, from children to the elderly. However, climate change only affects some people at different rates. It affects vulnerable groups* more, making them more vulnerable and reducing their resilience. This means deepening existing inequalities. (

*people with disabilities, children, unemployed, homeless, women, the elderly, people living in poverty and deprivation, individuals at high risk of social exclusion and poverty compared to the general population)

Pakistan contributes less than 1% of the fossil fuel emissions that heat the planet today. Still, this summer, it suffered devastating rains exacerbated by climate change, flooding a third of its territory and causing an estimated USD 30 billion in damage.

Negotiations on the climate crisis cannot be conducted with this mindset. Women, who make up half of society, need to be at the forefront of decisions that will shape the planet's future. If the needs of women and girls in the context of climate change are ignored by world leaders, these gender and environmental problems will not be easily solved.

“We need system change, not climate change.”

Despite the efforts of companies and countries to achieve net zero targets, it does not seem possible to prevent global warming quickly. To meet the 2050 net zero targets:

By 2050, the transition to fully renewable energy sources

Exit from coal should be six times faster

Existing agricultural areas should be expanded to cope with the growing population

Water quantity and quality must be protected

Innovation and technology are very critical to achieving these targets. As much as we need innovation in the systems and technologies used to combat the climate crisis, we also need innovation in how we do business and adapt our lifestyles.

On a promising note, COP27 launched a five-year work program to promote climate technology solutions in developing countries.

“Blended and new financing models are needed to achieve net zero targets.”

McKinsey estimates that for a net-zero transition, cumulative capital spending on physical assets such as technology, infrastructure, and natural resources would need to change from today's annual average of USD 5.7 trillion to USD 9.2 trillion by 2050.

It is impossible to meet the financing needs for adaptation and mitigation, as well as the realization of net zero targets, with public resources alone. Encouraging the private sector and developing blended and new financing models is critical. Delivering such funding will require a swift and comprehensive transformation of the financial system and its structures and processes, engaging governments, central banks, commercial banks, institutional investors, and other financial actors.

Another significant financing need is for "loss and damage", which means compensation for the losses of developing countries by developed countries with a high responsibility for climate change.

Although the issue of "loss and damage" was for the first time recognized as an official item on the agenda of a COP, the leaders of developed countries did not address this issue in their opening speeches over two days and the financing commitments in the first week of the summit fell far short of the need.

While the USD 100 billion in climate finance that developed countries have pledged to provide to developing economies starting in 2020 has not yet reached the desired level, leaders of countries such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Barbados, whose lives and property losses are increasing in the face of climate disasters, criticized the current financial system and the inadequacy of climate finance.

Finally, the good news arrived toward the end of the conference, and COP27 reached a breakthrough agreement on the new “Loss and Damage” Fund for Vulnerable Countries. Governments also agreed to establish a ‘transitional committee’ to make recommendations on operationalizing the new funding arrangements and the fund at COP28 next year. The transitional committee's first meeting is expected to occur before the end of March 2023.

 in five key areas: power, road transport, steel, hydrogen, and agriculture.

 to ensure everyone on the planet is protected by early warning systems within the next five years.

High-Level Expert Group on Net-Zero Commitments

 published a report at COP27, serving as a how-to guide to ensure credible, accountable net-zero pledges by industry, financial institutions, cities, and regions.

A G7-led plan called the Global Shield Financing Facility was launched at COP27 to provide funding to countries suffering climate disasters.

Announcing a total of USD 105.6 million in new funding, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Slovenia, Sweden, Switzerland, and the Walloon Region of Belgium, stressed the need for even more support for the Global Environment Facility funds targeting the immediate climate adaptation needs of low-lying and low-income states.

The new Indonesia Just Energy Transition Partnership, announced at the G20 Summit held in parallel with COP27, will mobilize USD 20 billion over the next three to five years to accelerate a just energy transition.

Significant progress was made on forest protection with the launch of the Forest and Climate Leaders’ Partnership, which aims to unite action by governments, businesses, and community leaders to halt forest loss and land degradation by 2030.

COP27 Recap: Strong Political Discourse, Insufficient Funding, Coordination, and Diversity

Ilkay Demirdag is an Investment and Impact Strategist with 24 years of experience working in multinational companies, conglomerates, banks and private equity funds in Turkey, the UK and Bahrain. She leads important initiatives to maximize value creation for all stakeholders, transform responsible and impact investments into the mainstream, and ensure sustainable economic development.

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Ilkay Demirdag

Ilkay Demirdag

COP27 Recap: Strong Political Discourse, Insufficient Funding, Coordination, and Diversity

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