"Refine baby, refine"

"Drill baby, drill," said NJ Ayuk, executive chairman of the African Energy Chamber in April. He was speaking in Cape Town at the African Refiners & Distributors Association Week, where he also said "Refine baby, refine."

The conflict in the Gulf is inspiring new debate on energy transitions and energy dependency across Africa. Within a few months of the disruption in the global energy market, economic uncertainty triggered unrest in several African countries, including violent protests in Kenya and strikes in Mozambique.

Now an unexpected crisis is turning into a new normal. Recent days have seen renewed US strikes on Iran, strikes by Iran on oil-producing neighbours and LNG vessels, and new threats to impose shipping tolls in the Strait of Hormuz.

Energy importers are particularly vulnerable. Kenya, for example, which is 100% reliant on imports for petroleum products, saw the price of diesel increase nearly 25% in April and then again in May.

Eight out of the twelve countries worldwide whose fossil-fuel imports cost more than 10% of their gross domestic product (GDP) are in Africa, finds a recent report from Power Shift Africa, an NGO. But the situation is not limited to energy importers. Low refining capacity on the continent has meant that African oil producers export most of their oil in crude form and are therefore more vulnerable to price rises, hence Ayuk's call to "refine."

As the crisis exposes fault lines in the continent's energy landscape, there is a growing confidence in some countries that local oil and gas production and refining is necessary to end dependency on imports from high-risk sources. This is also taking place, however, in the context of an accelerating renewable-energy roll-out across the continent, marked by record low costs for new renewables.

Doubling down on oil and gas

East African countries, which are some of the hardest hit by the war's impact on oil markets, are discussing setting up a joint oil refinery in Tanga, Tanzania. The port city will form the end point and export hub for the controversial East African Crude Oil Pipeline from Uganda.

Ghana also has plans for a "Petroleum Hub" to refine up to 900,000 barrels per day. Geopolitical developments have strengthened opinions regarding the project's "strategic importance."

While these projects have been in the works for a number of years, the current crisis has prompted politicians and industry leaders to emphasise their importance and urgency.

In Nigeria, Africa's largest oil producer, increasing local production and refining is a priority of the government, oil and gas expert Dayo Adeshina told Dialogue Earth. Adeshina was a special adviser to former Nigerian Vice President Yemi Osibanjo.

The situation has revealed a need to diversify, says Fikayo Akeredolu, a senior research associate in Climate Policy and Justice at the University of Bristol. "African countries are asking what else they can do investment-wise to buffer themselves from geopolitical uncertainty," she says.

The war in the Gulf has also increased interest in African oil and gas in the global market. Demand is coming from Asia, said Wale Tinubu, group chief executive of Nigerian oil and gas company Oando, in May 2026. India, for example, has increased imports from Nigeria, Angola and Latin American sources. African sources have also become more attractive for some consumers like Chinese companies seeking to buy from non-sanctioned sources as opposed to Iran. Additionally, there has been increased inter-African trade in oil, says Adeshina, particularly to countries like South Africa.

In response, crude oil output in some African countries has increased, reports the International Energy Agency. Although it notes that these increases are marginal compared to the loss of Gulf oil in the global market.

Some governments are reaping the financial rewards. This is the case for Angola, Africa's second largest oil exporter, says Flavio Inocencio, a lecturer at Angola's Agostinho Neto University. He highlights the country's dependence on oil exports, which contribute in excess of 60% of the state budget and 30% of total GDP. Most of Angola's exports go to Asian markets like China, India, Japan and South Korea, all of which have historically been highly dependent on Middle Eastern sources. Many of those countries are now looking to Africa to diversify their imports.

Oil and gas risks

"While higher oil prices can provide short-term fiscal benefits for some African producers, they also increase energy and transport costs for many African consumers and import-dependent economies," Akeredolu told Dialogue Earth.

The current energy crisis has exposed economic vulnerabilities in oil and gas dependence. Yet several countries are still moving forward with multi-billion-dollar gas-to-power projects. These include Nigeria, Senegal, Mozambique and Tanzania, the latter three being new producers.

Several African countries, including Mozambique and Tanzania, are dependent on gas imports from Qatar, whose LNG infrastructure was attacked and partially damaged in March. While no recorded government statements link these countries' continued commitment to their LNG projects to the attacks, the crisis can make a case for domestic production, especially in countries with low energy-access rates. "Most African countries have an energy access problem," says Akeredolu. Giving the example of Nigeria, she highlights that "the immediate challenge is providing reliable and affordable energy to millions of people who currently lack access."

Another side of the gas conversation is exports. All four countries are located to bypass disruptions that have made exports from the Gulf highly risky. This is attractive to markets such as ones in Asia and Europe.

An analysis by the Centre for Energy, Finance and Development cautions against betting on overly ambitious and risky projects, especially export-oriented projects, as the accelerating clean-energy transition may reduce demand in target markets. This risks creating "stranded assets" in African oil and gas sectors, the report authors warn.

The current rush for oil and gas in the continent predates the war in the Gulf. But demand in major markets might be inspiring a push to capture presumed economic benefits before the energy transition completely changes the global energy landscape.

Africa's oil and gas debate

Africa has contributed little to manmade climate change, accounting for about 3% of historical emissions as of 2024. This has made the idea of fossil-fuel phase-outs controversial. The current energy crisis has added to this by strengthening pro-fossil-fuel narratives. There is also an expectation that these projects will contribute to development through employment and public revenues.

However, evidence from decades of fossil fuels in the continent does not always support this assumption.

Power Shift Africa's report argues that instead of development, fossil fuels have "contributed to economic vulnerability, inequality, and structural constraints on growth" in the 13 African countries examined.

The authors note that in Africa's two largest oil producers, Nigeria and Angola, 40% of the population still live in extreme poverty on less than USD 3 per day. They also argue that fossil-fuel production is directly linked to high levels of corruption and environmental harm.

Inocencio from Angola's Agostinho Neto University says that the trends identified in the report are symptoms of "extractivism," that is, exploiting natural resources for export.

To Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa and one of the report's authors, there is "a danger in Africa becoming locked into another generation of extractive relationships that export wealth while leaving people behind." He adds that fossil fuels keep African countries tied to global instability.

In contrast, he says, renewables offer a path to energy independence. This may already be beginning to take off. Data from 2025 shows that the continent imported 15 GW of solar panels from China.

The African Union (AU) sees the issue differently, however. Through the African Energy Commission, the AU aims to expand refining and oil products markets across Africa, and positions gas as a means to "advance long-term welfare in relation to … addressing the global threat of climate change and energy transition." Adeshina echoes this position, labelling gas a "transition fuel."

The oil and gas crisis triggered by the war on Iran has exposed once again Africa's vulnerability to global energy shocks. At the same time, the global scramble to identify new sources of oil and gas and the persistently high oil prices have strengthened some of the arguments made for African producer countries to double down on fossil fuels. At stake is the future direction of African development.

"Africa has a right to sustainable development," says Adow. "[But] not a right to repeat the dirty development pathways that created the climate crisis."

This article is also published on Dialogue Earth. illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the opinions of leading Sustainability Thought Leaders, their views do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.

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