Big Oil’s profits are the world’s cost of living crisis

As world leaders prepare to gather in Antalya, Türkiye, for COP31 next week, the climate crisis has been wreaking havoc across the globe. Wildfires are destroying homes, droughts are decimating harvests, and a worsening El Niño exacerbates what was already quite worrying. Researchers estimate that El Niño could contribute to 451,000 additional heat-related deaths between June 2026 and February 2027, and the World Food Programme warns that almost 50 million more people could be thrown into hunger by the end of next year because of it.

And yet, five of the world’s largest oil companies are enjoying a bonanza: they have just reported over $56 billion in combined third-quarter profits, more than double their earnings in the same period last year. These profits are clearly not simply the result of a healthy market. They expose a fundamental imbalance in how we manage the climate and energy crises: private companies can profit from disruption, while the public is left to pick up the bill.

BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell and TotalEnergies shareholders will reap massive gains while families battle rising bills, and cities and countries see their budgets swallowed up by climate disasters. When fossil fuel prices surge, governments step in to protect households. France announced a €450 million fuel-support package this year. Canada estimated an additional C$2.9 billion in costs from extending fuel-excise relief, while Japan approved a reported ¥616 billion top-up for fuel support – and these are just some examples.

These measures provide essential help to people struggling to make ends meet. According to the UNDP if countries hadn’t provided relief measures, an additional 130 million people could have fallen below the poverty line this year. But there is something profoundly wrong with a system in which taxpayers repeatedly spend billions making fossil fuels affordable, while the companies producing them can reap exceptional profits and use their wealth to expand the very dependence that leaves us vulnerable to the next crisis.

The problem is not that governments help people. It is that we keep paying to manage the symptoms while leaving the underlying cause untouched. This is the injustice at the heart of fossil fuel dependence: people and governments face the consequences of a crisis they have little control over, while multinational companies retain the power to decide how much oil and gas to extract, where to invest and how much to return to shareholders.

The companies’ own statements reveal the contradiction. TotalEnergies, for example, has reaffirmed plans to increase oil and gas production by an average of 3% annually between 2025 and 2030. Shell reported $10.8 billion in adjusted profitsfor this quarter, and announced another $3 billion in share buybacks. But they also warned that additional taxes on their profits could threaten investment, energy security or support for consumers.

The most obscene part of this is that the companies knew about the dangers of climate change and actively tried to delay action. And now that the consequences become increasingly visible, they are resisting demands to contribute more towards the costs. We cannot allow this imbalance to continue. Governments must make polluters pay.

That means introducing permanent levies on fossil fuel producers, taxing exceptional profits and ensuring that companies meet their climate and clean-up obligations before rewarding shareholders with dividends and buybacks. It also means putting a clear, just and equitable phase-out of fossil fuels at the heart of international climate negotiations. Governments should commit to national phase-out roadmaps with firm deadlines, credible financing plans and transparent reporting on progress. Workers and communities whose livelihoods depend on fossil fuel industries must receive the investment and support needed to build secure alternatives.

This is why the next UN climate summit matters. COP31 cannot become another gathering where governments acknowledge the scale of the crisis but avoid confronting the industry driving it. The world needs more than promises to expand renewable energy. It needs a credible plan to wind down fossil fuels, finance the transition and ensure that those who profited from the problem contribute to solving it.

The science is clear. The human costs are mounting. And the money exists. As leaders arrive in Antalya, they must decide whose interests climate policy will serve. Will governments continue to use public money to cushion fossil fuel price shocks while allowing producers to profit from the next crisis? Or will they make polluters pay, protect people and invest in a future powered by clean, affordable energy?

We cannot afford another decade of delay. We absorb the shocks while fossil fuel majors invest in the next ones and reward their shareholders. At COP31, it is time to change that.

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