Over the past two decades, an average of 200,000 Ugandans were affected each year by disasters

Tukwatanise

<h2><strong>Uganda climate baseline overview</strong></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Uganda&rsquo;s climate is largely tropical with two rainy seasons per year, March to May and September to December. The northern region, which forms one quarter of the country lies outside the tropical belt and hence experiences only one rainy season from March to October. The rest of Uganda lies within a relatively humid equatorial climate zone, and the topography, prevailing winds, and lakes and rivers cause large differences in rainfall patterns across the country. Its location in the tropics and across the equator results in the country&rsquo;s weather and seasons being determined by the large-scale Indian Monsoon, Congo air mass, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) systems.&nbsp;</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Overall, Uganda experiences moderate temperatures throughout the year. However, the country&rsquo;s diverse topography results in wide-ranging temperature, from 0&deg;C in the ice-capped Rwenzori Mountain Range and Mt. Elgon to 30&deg;C in the north-eastern areas of Gulu, Kitgum and Moroto. The Rwenzori Mountain Range has permanent ice caps. However, due to rising temperatures, the area typically covered by ice reduced by 49% between 1987 to 2003 and is projected to disappear by the 2040s. This has implications for the area&rsquo;s water resources, livelihood activities and is likely to change its epidemiological profile.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) reviewed the state of the global climate systems and their implications on the June, July and August (JJA) 2023 seasonal rainfall over the country. It was observed that the major physical conditions likely to influence the weather conditions for the forecast period are as follows:</span></p>
<ol>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">The Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are currently in a neutral phase with an increased chance of developing El Ni&ntilde;o conditions over the coming months.</span></li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">The current neutral phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to persist.</span></li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">The influence of these ocean processes will interact with regional circulation patterns, especially monsoonal winds, Tropical Easterly Jet, and the Somalia Low-level Jet.</span></li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Their effects are likely to be modulated by features such as topography and large inland water bodies.</span></li>
</ol>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The current status of seasonal forecasting allows for the prediction of spatial and temporal averages over larger areas and may not fully account for all physical and dynamic factors that influence short-term climate variability. The rainfall season of June, July and August (JJA) is generally a dry period over the southern parts of the country, especially in the south-western region, central region, Lake Victoria basin and parts of the eastern region. It also marks the end of the first rainfall season and a harvesting period for seasonal crops over the country. However, over most parts of the northern region, the JJA period is a continuation of the rainfall season.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Overall, there is an increased likelihood of near normal with a tendency to below normal rainfall over most parts of the country as shown by the map below (Figure 1).</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Figure 1. </strong>June to August 2023 rainfall outlook</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><img src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/61d14d3e5e74f91088019b37742d8728d1e19e7c.jpg?" alt="Uganda June to August 2023 Rainfall Outlook" /></span></p>
<h2><strong>Climate related natural hazards</strong></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Uganda is at risk of natural disasters. The country experiences extreme weather events which lead to mudslides, landslides and flooding, particularly for the country&rsquo;s mountain regions and related districts such as Mbale in the Mt. Elgon region. Extreme events leading to disasters such as floods, droughts, and landslides have increased over the last 30 years. Flooding has become more frequent, largely due to more intense rainfall. Over the past two decades, an average of 200,000 Ugandans were affected each year by disasters. The increased intensity of heavy rainfall has led to a greater impact of floods and is causing more damage due to expanded infrastructure, human settlement and general development of the country. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Uganda&rsquo;s vulnerability to extreme weather events is exacerbated due to its high level of poverty and its high dependence on &lsquo;climate sensitive&rsquo; sectors: agriculture, water, fisheries, tourism, and forestry. The country is at high risk of natural disasters such as flooding, drought, and landslides; however, its topographic diversity and highly marginalized segments of the population, make it even more vulnerable. Additionally, non-climate stressors such as inadequate infrastructure to handle the increasing population are also impacting the vulnerability to natural disaster sensitivity and climate change vulnerability. With an urbanization rate of 5.4%, increasing amounts of the population are living in urban areas, putting pressure on existing infrastructure as well as scarce available land, a diminishing natural resource.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">As of 2017, 9.9 million people lived in urban areas of Uganda. This is projected to increase to 19.9 million by 2030 and 31.5 million by 2040, causing increased pressure on urban infrastructure with an increased likelihood of vulnerability for poorer and less-resilient communities. Economic efforts and the development of industry have put additional pressure on the exploitation of forests, lake fisheries, inner-city development, and agricultural lands, which has contributed to deforestation, overfishing, degradation of agriculture areas and forest environments, as well as the pollution and unsustainable use of water resources.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Poverty, land degradation, rapid and unplanned urbanization since the 1960s, and weak enforcement of building codes and zoning regulations, and a lack of coordinated disaster response strategies present additional challenges to the country&rsquo;s adaption and resilience efforts. The country&rsquo;s debt limits available resources and thus its ability to recover from disasters or provide necessary social protection. Environmental degradation, underdeveloped irrigation systems, and the near-absence of disaster preparedness at the community level are contributing factors to increasing drought risk in Uganda.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Figure 2. </strong>Deforestation or trash disposal as most important environmental issue in communities</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/166b7f57f651c1613c3f7404b7e1c3128e5cac0c.jpg?" alt=" Deforestation or trash disposal as most important environmental issue in communities" /></span></p>
<p><strong>Data from the Emergency Event Database</strong><span style="font-weight: 400;">: Presented in the table below, shows the country has endured various natural hazards, including floods, landslides, epidemic diseases, and storms.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Figure 3.</strong> Natural disasters in Uganda 1900-2020</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/ea0bc5587aede6479e01c7de6d1e669988898b48.jpg?" alt="Natural disasters in Uganda 1900-2020" /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Flooding, particularly in low-lying areas of the country, presents the largest risk. Each year, floods impact nearly 50,000 people and cost the country over $62 million. Uganda experiences both flash floods and slow-onset floods, which are common in urban areas, low-lying areas, areas along river banks and swamplands. Areas most prone to floods are the capital city, Kampala, as well as the northern and eastern areas of the country. Heavy rainfall in arid areas has led to flash flooding causing infrastructure damage. Areas such as Gulu District, face large challenges in the rainy seasons as large areas of the district become impassable, often resulting in food shortages and inaccessibility to health facilities and schools due to the destruction of roads and bridges from flooding.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Droughts affected close to 2.4 million people between 2004 and 2013, and drought conditions in 2010 and 2011 caused an estimated loss and damage value of $1.2 billion, equivalent to 7.5% of Uganda&rsquo;s 2010 gross domestic product. Increasing heat conditions in the country are further exacerbating this problem. Severe drought in Uganda can result in human and livestock deaths and impacted areas are also experiencing reduced water tables, diminished water levels in major lakes as well as crop failures. Rapid population growth is also putting additional strain on depleted water resources. The most drought-prone areas in Uganda are the districts in the &lsquo;Cattle Corridor&rsquo;. Extreme drought has been most prevalent in the Karamoja region, which has resulted in frequent agricultural losses and significant food insecurity concerns. Increasing heat risks are expected to occur in areas with decreased water availability.</span></p>
<h2><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Findings from the most recent Afrobarometer survey show that Ugandans who are aware of climate change are solidly behind government action to address the crisis, even at a significant economic cost. They see addressing climate change as a collective responsibility, and they want greater engagement on the issue by the government, business and industry, developed nations, and ordinary citizens.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Figure 4.</strong> Are stakeholders doing enough to limit climate change?</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/5e2290a7467ae5eedcf36cd12663181c6a2d4cd0.jpg?" alt="Natural disasters in Uganda, 1900-2020" /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Like many countries around the world, Uganda is experiencing significant impacts of climate change. Weather patterns are changing, and water levels in several water bodies are dropping. Extreme weather events such as floods, landslides, and prolonged droughts are becoming more frequent in the country, threatening people&rsquo;s livelihoods (Irish Aid, 2016).</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Uganda&rsquo;s economy is heavily reliant on agriculture, making the country highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The government of Uganda has committed itself to the United Nations&rsquo; Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol, and has integrated climate change interventions in its Vision 2040 and five-year National Development Plan (Ministry of Water and Environment, 2015; Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, 2018). But building climate resilience will require concerted efforts from all stakeholders as well as substantial funding (Busby, Smith, White, &amp; Strange, 2012).</span></p>
<h3><strong>References</strong></h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Department of Disaster Preparedness and Management (2011). The National Policy for Disaster Preparedness and Management.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Ministry of Water and Environment (2015). Uganda National Climate Change Policy</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (2015). Uganda Climate Smart Agriculture Country Program 2015&ndash;2025</span></p>
<p>Treescape Planet. <a href="https://treescapeplanet.org/">https://treescapeplanet.org/</a></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">USAID (2014). An overview of climate change and agriculture infrastructure in Uganda.</span></p>
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<p><em>Future Thought Leaders is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of rising Sustainability &amp; Energy writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.</em></p>
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Weather and climate for all

Uganda has lost 41.6% of its forest cover in the last 100 years (1921-2021). In 1900, Uganda’s forest cover stood at 54% and by 2017, it stood at a miserable 12.4%. There is consistent pressure on land for cultivation and settlement and increasing demand for wood fuel.

<p>T<span style="font-weight: 400;">he theme of this year&rsquo;s Earth Day was &ldquo;Invest in our planet&rdquo;</span><span style="font-weight: 400;">. This day was an excellent </span><span style="font-weight: 400;">opportunity to raise awareness and advocate for change around the issues most impacting our planet and celebrate the beauty of Mother Earth. It&rsquo;s important that we confront the realities of the problems we&rsquo;re up against. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, adopted by all United Nations member states in 2015, provides a shared blueprint for peace and prosperity for people and the planet, now and into the future.</span></p>
<h2><strong>The Sustainable Development Goals</strong></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">At its heart are the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which are an urgent call for action by all countries - developed and developing - global partnership. They recognize that ending poverty and other deprivations must go hand in hand with strategies that improve health and education, reduce inequality, and spur economic growth - all while tackling climate change and working to preserve our oceans and forests.&nbsp;</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Sustainable Development Goal 15 advocates protecting, restoring and promoting the sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably managing forests, combating desertification, and halting and reversing land degradation and halting biodiversity loss. In order to mitigate this, Uganda has prioritized forest restoration as envisaged in existing targets provided in Vision 2040, subsequent National Development Plans (I &amp; II), and the National Forestry Plan (2011/12-2021/22), in which the national target is to restore forest cover to 24% (1990 levels). In regard to the National Forestry and Tree Planting Act 2003, it advocates for practicing afforestation and re-afforestation practices for degraded forest resources.&nbsp;</span></p>
<h2><strong>Causes of deforestation in Uganda</strong></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Uganda&rsquo;s forests have been depleted due to subsistence agriculture, charcoal production and poverty. We need to employ local communities to plant, protect, manage, and monitor reforestation on large 1000 ha+ plots of private land that have been leased for restoration purposes from the National Forestry Authority, using a combination of native species for rewilding, intercropping to address food security, and supporting community agroforestry to reduce pressure on existing forests and project future forests. Agro-forestry practices provide importance to the community, among which are the provision of food to homesteads, fodder for livestock, combating climate change through carbon dioxide sequestration and environment conservation.&nbsp;</span></p>
<h2><strong>Consequences of deforestation in Uganda</strong></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Uganda has lost 41.6% of its forest cover in the last 100 years (1921-2021). In 1900, Uganda&rsquo;s forest cover stood at 54% and by 2017, it stood at a miserable 12.4%. There is consistent pressure on land for cultivation and settlement and increasing demand for wood fuel. While efforts have been made to restore the forest cover, the population has not been adequately involved in this restoration process. It is against this background that we address climate change and deforestation as global problems that require a global response.&nbsp;</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">94% of Ugandans rely on unsustainably sourced fuel wood, with gas being prohibitively expensive, the vast majority of Ugandans rely on charcoal or firewood that has been harvested from national forests or the private lands of impoverished farmers. There has been a 180% charcoal price increase in the past six years.&nbsp;</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">As forests disappear, charcoal&ndash;the sole affordable cooking fuel available in urban areas&ndash;has seen prices nearly triple in the last six years. 500,000+ estimated acres of forests are cut annually throughout Uganda, this is equivalent to deforesting 43 football fields every hour. 62.5% of Uganda&rsquo;s forest land has been logged in the last 3 decades, and it is estimated that by 2050, there will be no forests outside of protected areas remaining.&nbsp;</span></p>
<h2><strong>Actions taken</strong></h2>
<p>Regarding the forest sector in Uganda, in the last one or so decades, Uganda has carried out several Policies, Legal and Institutional Reforms aimed at promoting the conservation and sustainable use of the country&rsquo;s forest resources.&nbsp;</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The key reforms include:&nbsp;</span></p>
<ol>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;"> Putting in place of the National Forestry Policy, 2001.&nbsp;</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;"> Enactment of the National Forestry and Tree Planting Act 2003.&nbsp;</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;"> New institutional arrangements including the Forest Sector Support Department, the National Forestry Authority.&nbsp;</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;"> District Forestry Services being made.&nbsp;</span></li>
</ol>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">To address the question of enforcement in the forestry and other environment sub-sectors, the government also established the Environmental Protection Police Unit.&nbsp;</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Despite these interventions, the country continues to lose forest cover at a very alarming rate. It was reported that Uganda was losing approximately 90,000 hectares between 1990 and 2010 of forest cover annually.&nbsp;</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Demand drives supply, according to economics. Thus, the demand for charcoal is driving deforestation across the country. According to Global Forest Watch, an international organization that provides data and tools for monitoring forests, from 2002 to 2019, Uganda lost 64.3kha of humid (rain) forest, making up 7.9% of its total tree cover loss in the same time period. The total area of humid primary forest in Uganda decreased by 13%in this period.&nbsp;</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And from 2001 to 2019, Uganda lost 844kha of tree cover, equivalent to an 11%decrease in tree cover since 2000. Deforestation is more in-tense in areas with high population densities. In districts such as Mukono, Mpigi and Luwero, Mubende, Kyenjojo, Kiboga, Mukono, Hoima, </span><span style="font-weight: 400;">Mbarara, Mpigi and Gulu major tracts of land have been cleared in the last decade, accounting for more than 55% of this loss, according to Global Forest Watch.&nbsp;</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">As districts such as Mukono, Mbarara and Mpigi also rapidly urbanize, trees and forests are cut down to set up houses. Urbanization is a key driver of permanent deforestation, Global Forest Watch data shows. For districts like Luwero, factors such as charcoal burning come into play.&nbsp;</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">A government national charcoal survey in 2016 found districts in the Central region as the leading producers of charcoal (40.9%) followed by northern regions (39.5%). It also revealed that central region districts were the main source of charcoal supplied to Kampala (63.4%). The leading supplier districts of charcoal in the central region of Kampala were Nakasongola, Nakaseke, Luwero and Kyakwanzi. Kampala is the leading charcoal market.&nbsp;</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The survey also revealed that charcoal is the most preferred fuel for heating and cooking in urban areas, both by households and commercial enterprises. It said the annual consumption of charcoal was about 400,000 tonnes, 300,000 tonnes of this being consumed in Kampala.&nbsp;</span></p>
<h2><strong>Recommendations</strong></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Despite the existence of forestry-related policies such as the Uganda forestry policy and the National Environment Management Policy, which was designed to protect and preserve forest ecosystems, there still exists rampant deforestation in Uganda today and the policies that currently exist are part of the problem. These need to be reformed as listed above, and the reform should involve all stakeholders so that implementation is simplified. However, institution irregularities such as corruption need to be given adequate attention for any success of reviewed policies to be achieved.&nbsp;</span></p>
<ol>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;"> Promoting activities that reduce the pressure on the forest like agriculture, butterfly farming, improved beekeeping, development of fodder banks, bio-intensive agriculture and farm forestry. There should be increased activity around the forests' resources to increase per capita income and check on population growth.&nbsp;</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;"> Increasing income and improved literacy levels because with improved standards of living, over-dependence on forest products for example as a source of energy is checked and land-use changes due to literacy.&nbsp;</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;"> Private landowners with natural forest cover on their land should be given direct monetary or other incentives to encourage them to limit deforestation. Forest product and service valuation: monetary digits are more easily understood by the public. Forest goods and services should be explored, and a value attached to them so that a lay-man can understand.&nbsp;</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;"> Investment in research, education and extension services: Educating stakeholders helps them understand how to prevent and reduce adverse environmental effects associated with deforestation. Extension services are also crucial because certain classes of people have the information. However, passing it on to the stakeholders is another challenge that can be addressed through extension.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;"> The government should put in place a regulatory framework, which will create a positive investment climate to encourage private-sector investment in commercial forest plantations. The government should set out priority areas for the development of carbon storage plantations in different areas of Uganda. Through the restoration of degraded Central Forest Reserves (CFRs), the National Forest Authority has encouraged the establishment of forest plantations, opening forest boundaries, community engagements, strict protection, and peaceful removal of encroachers from CFRs among others which has led to increase of forest cover from 9% in 2015 to 12.4%in 2017.&nbsp;</span></li>
</ol>
<h2><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Over 80% of Uganda&rsquo;s population is rural and depends on rain-fed agriculture, which is vulnerable to impacts of adverse effects of climate change.&nbsp;</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">In many districts of Uganda, the declining forest cover has resulted in a fuel wood deficit hence raising costs and increasing the burden on women and children who collect firewood.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Therefore, if the situation is not reversed the knock-on effect will be catastrophic and contribute to exacerbating soil degradation, decline in food security, disease and conflict. There is an opportunity to work with communities and landowners to turn their degraded land into productive forests that sequester carbon, grow crops in the short term, fruit in the long term, and restore microclimates.&nbsp;</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">By partnering with corporations, non-governmental organizations in the environment and investors, we have the opportunity to transform the futures of tens of thousands of farmers and communities by giving access to jobs, supporting education, health care, and wealth generation through environmental projects.&nbsp;</span></p>
<h3><strong>References&nbsp;</strong></h3>
<p>https://treescapeplanet.org/&nbsp;</p>
<p>https://www.mwe.go.ug <span style="font-weight: 400;">- National Forestry Plan, 2011/12 &ndash; 2021/22 </span>https://nema.go.ug <span style="font-weight: 400;">- National State of Environment Report for Uganda, 2020. </span>https://www.nfa.go.ug <span style="font-weight: 400;">- State of Uganda&rsquo;s Forestry Report, 2018.</span></p>
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<p><em>Future Thought Leaders is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of rising Sustainability &amp; Energy writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.</em></p>
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Tukwatanise Bonnita

Tukwatanise Bonnita

Weather and climate for all

Deforestation in Uganda: causes and recommendations

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