How can we create a decarbonization plan that can withstand uncertainties and adverse events?

Elena

<p id="e2b0" class="pw-post-body-paragraph lx ly fo lz b ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk ml mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu fh bj" data-selectable-paragraph="">In 1989, Robert A. Frosch and Nicholas E. Gallopoulos wrote an article for the Scientific American magazine that still resonates. They said: &ldquo;Some of the old solutions to industrial pollution and everyday waste no longer work. There is often no &lsquo;other side of town&rsquo; where the modern equivalents of tanneries can be put&hellip;&rdquo; They suggested an industrial ecosystem where &ldquo;the consumption of energy and materials is optimized, waste generation is minimized, and the effluents of one process serve as the raw material for another process&rdquo;. Basically, they applied the&nbsp;<strong class="lz fp">biological ecosystem to the manufacturing</strong>; ideally, it worked just fine. But it was on paper.</p>
<p id="0b83" class="pw-post-body-paragraph lx ly fo lz b ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk ml mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu fh bj" data-selectable-paragraph="">As is often the case, turbulent and entropic times lead to&nbsp;<strong class="lz fp">innovation and improvement</strong>, and&nbsp;<strong class="lz fp">the call to think and act differently</strong>&nbsp;by adopting a new disruptive mindset becomes paramount. As it is today.</p>
<p id="8cfc" class="pw-post-body-paragraph lx ly fo lz b ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk ml mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu fh bj" data-selectable-paragraph="">If the Paris Agreement numbers are to be respected, the next two decades will see a 40% growth in copper and rare earth elements demand. Specifically, a 60&ndash;70% growth in demand for cobalt and a 90% growth in demand for lithium. Overall,&nbsp;<strong class="lz fp">the need for critical, rare or conflictive minerals deployed for green technologies would quadruple</strong>.</p>
<p id="8767" class="pw-post-body-paragraph lx ly fo lz b ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk ml mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu fh bj" data-selectable-paragraph="">Mobile phones, laptops, e-bikes and scooters all the way to electric toothbrushes: our reliance on rechargeable batteries has skyrocketed, hence the dependence on rare elements or minerals. With the boost of EVs on roads of every geography, demand for batteries is THE topic.&nbsp;<strong class="lz fp">They are essential&nbsp;</strong>for green energy transitions&nbsp;<strong class="lz fp">but could become a divisive factor in a sustainable future</strong>. Since 2011, the European Commission has assessed every 3 year a list of Critical Raw Materials for the EU economy within its Raw Materials Initiative. To date, 14 CRMs were identified in 2011, 20 in 2014, 27 in 2017 and 30 in 2020. These materials are mainly used in energy transition and digital technologies.</p>
<p id="ab34" class="pw-post-body-paragraph lx ly fo lz b ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk ml mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu fh bj" data-selectable-paragraph="">When used responsibly, natural elements in the form of mineral resources can bring in public revenue and support the economic livelihoods of many. Conversely,<strong class="lz fp">&nbsp;many negative externalities arise if poorly managed</strong>: significant GHG emissions are linked to energy-intensive unsustainable mining and processing activities, whereas also severe social impacts in the form of corruption and misuse of public resources, human rights abuses and child labour and unequal impacts on women and girls constantly occur.</p>
<p id="b1bf" class="pw-post-body-paragraph lx ly fo lz b ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk ml mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu fh bj" data-selectable-paragraph=""><strong class="lz fp">Critical minerals are essential for clean energy transitions and digital reinvention,</strong>&nbsp;yet they pose a burden. For the vital use of these minerals, companies and governments must&nbsp;<strong class="lz fp">address their impacts and disrupt unsustainable practices.&nbsp;</strong>The question is how to accomplish this.</p>
<p class="pw-post-body-paragraph lx ly fo lz b ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk ml mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu fh bj" data-selectable-paragraph=""><strong class="lz fp" style="font-family: Inter, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol', serif;">Is it even feasible?</strong></p>
<p id="a57d" class="pw-post-body-paragraph lx ly fo lz b ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk ml mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu fh bj" data-selectable-paragraph="">There are at least two types of responses to the rarity or scarcity as well as to the sustainability impact: a circular and regenerative one and an artificial one, possibly even more sustainable in the long term.</p>
<p id="e759" class="pw-post-body-paragraph lx ly fo lz b ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk ml mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu fh bj" data-selectable-paragraph="">First:&nbsp;<strong class="lz fp">these metals can be recycled almost infinitely</strong>&nbsp;as metal atoms don&rsquo;t change or degrade, so old devices can become new EVs without any performance or battery life trade-offs. Yet, only 17% of e-waste and less than 5% of lithium-ion battery-containing devices get recycled today because we say circular, but not closed circular. We do not close the loop at 100%. It is a massive&nbsp;<strong class="lz fp">opportunity to &ldquo;urban mine&rdquo; old products and repair, reman or build new</strong>, sustainable ones. Enlightened examples worldwide work in this direction: American&nbsp;<a class="af lw" href="https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener ugc nofollow"><strong class="lz fp">Redwood Materials</strong></a>, led by Tesla co-founder JB Straubel, is an excellency. They recycle, refine and remanufacture to return battery materials to local manufacturers. In practice, end-of-life batteries are&nbsp;<strong class="lz fp">disentangled into their primary metals like nickel, copper, cobalt, and lithium</strong>&nbsp;and into cathode and anode products fed back into production. Already working with Ford, Amazon and Tesla (obviously) to extract materials from batteries and electronic waste, they are trying to close the loop. Another good names are the German&nbsp;<a class="af lw" href="https://www.aurubis.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener ugc nofollow"><strong class="lz fp">Aurubis</strong></a><strong class="lz fp">,&nbsp;</strong>which processes metal concentrates, scrap metals, and metal-bearing recycling materials into metals of the highest purity.</p>
<p id="5864" class="pw-post-body-paragraph lx ly fo lz b ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk ml mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu fh bj" data-selectable-paragraph=""><strong class="lz fp">The circular or spherical economy &mdash;&nbsp;</strong>almost everything is 3d! &mdash; if applied to the full,&nbsp;<strong class="lz fp">is crucial in reducing demand for materials respecting earth&rsquo;s physical limits</strong>; it implies a substantial alteration in the end-to-end economic system. Designing consumer electronics easier to repair and upgrade is a proven way of reducing waste and the need for mining and refining rare elements.</p>
<p id="1323" class="pw-post-body-paragraph lx ly fo lz b ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk ml mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu fh bj" data-selectable-paragraph=""><strong class="lz fp">And the second option?&nbsp;</strong>Reusing and recycling are essential sustainable steps, but more is needed. Can&rsquo;t we invest in&nbsp;<strong class="lz fp">developing methods to synthesize crucial minerals in labs to provide endurable alternatives while creating new brilliant jobs for young researchers?&nbsp;</strong>Ensuring a steady supply of these minerals without touching or mining the planet! In a conversation some years ago with the&nbsp;<a class="af lw" href="https://www.mines.edu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener ugc nofollow"><strong class="lz fp">Colorado School of Mines</strong></a><strong class="lz fp">,&nbsp;</strong>which is close to its 150th birthday, we talked about this. Synthesis of new materials, new and regenerated minerals, all done&hellip; indoors!</p>
<p id="db37" class="pw-post-body-paragraph lx ly fo lz b ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk ml mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu fh bj" data-selectable-paragraph=""><strong class="lz fp">Researchers from the University of Cambridge managed to artificially produce in the lab tetrataenite</strong>&nbsp;(an alloy of iron and nickel arranged in a stacked crystalline structure, which gives it magnetic properties similar to rare earth magnets) by adding phosphorus. Researchers at Rutgers University-New Brunswick and members of the Critical Materials Institute have found a possible new source of rare earth elements recovering them from phosphogypsum &mdash; waste from phosphoric acid production. Some&nbsp;<strong class="lz fp">promising possibilities are already happening in real labs!</strong></p>
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<p id="31e6" class="lx ly ng lz b ma mb mc md me mf mg mh nh mj mk ml ni mn mo mp nj mr ms mt mu fh bj" data-selectable-paragraph="">Developing a well-rounded approach to decarbonization requires a thoughtfully designed strategy incorporating technological, social, and governance innovation.</p>
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<p id="07ca" class="pw-post-body-paragraph lx ly fo lz b ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk ml mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu fh bj" data-selectable-paragraph=""><strong class="lz fp">How can we create a decarbonization plan that can otherwise withstand uncertainties and adverse events?</strong>&nbsp;The key to increasing resilience is reducing the amount needed for the energy transition, which can be achieved through technological innovation in recycling or synthesizing.&nbsp;<strong class="lz fp">Artificial intelligence&nbsp;</strong>has the potential to be an<strong class="lz fp">&nbsp;exceptional resource in this particular scenario.</strong></p>
<p class="pw-post-body-paragraph lx ly fo lz b ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk ml mm mn mo mp mq mr ms mt mu fh bj" data-selectable-paragraph=""><em><span class="lz fp">This article is also published on the <a href="https://medium.com/@elenamorettini/as-many-as-possible-a89929d02eef" target="_blank" rel="noopener">author's blog</a>. </span><span style="font-family: Inter, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol', serif;">illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of leading Sustainability &amp; Energy writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.</span></em></p>

As many as possible

2023 is a turning point. To reduce the negative impacts of climate change, it is paramount to bluntly cut emissions by half before 2030 to reach net zero by 2050 ultimately

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<h2 class="pw-post-body-paragraph lt lu fo lv b lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk ml mm mn mo mp mq fh bj"><strong class="lv fp">The legacy of 2023</strong></h2>
<p id="f94f" class="pw-post-body-paragraph lt lu fo lv b lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk ml mm mn mo mp mq fh bj" data-selectable-paragraph=""><strong class="lv fp">Thinking strategically</strong>, either through the aid of deterministic or probabilistic models, is, above all, planning to&nbsp;<strong class="lv fp">answer the tough questions</strong>.</p>
<p id="1c3a" class="pw-post-body-paragraph lt lu fo lv b lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk ml mm mn mo mp mq fh bj" data-selectable-paragraph="">We no longer have time to use shortcuts, loopholes or miscommunication:&nbsp;<strong class="lv fp">2023 is a turning point.</strong>&nbsp;To reduce the negative impacts of climate change, it is paramount to bluntly cut emissions by half before 2030 to reach net zero by 2050 ultimately.&nbsp;<strong class="lv fp">This is the year that pushes everyone to pass a major milestone</strong>: decarbonise energy, either through fading our dependence on fossil fuels (still 80% of global energy production) or building clean energy solutions, leaving the ground to net-zero energy choices.</p>
<h2 class="pw-post-body-paragraph lt lu fo lv b lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk ml mm mn mo mp mq fh bj"><strong>Renewables are key, but so are minerals</strong></h2>
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<p id="5f18" class="pw-post-body-paragraph lt lu fo lv b lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk ml mm mn mo mp mq fh bj" data-selectable-paragraph="">So, as we accelerate the so-much-needed&nbsp;<strong class="lv fp">low-carbon economy</strong>, investing in alternative sources of energy that are clean, accessible, affordable, sustainable, and reliable, we identify these&nbsp;<strong class="lv fp">renewable energies</strong>&nbsp;as a highly promising alternative to conventional fossil fuels and nuclear. Yet, it remains essential to recognise the big picture.</p>
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<p id="3e99" class="na nb fo be nc nd ne nf ng nh ni mq dv" data-selectable-paragraph="">Here&rsquo;s the first tough question:&nbsp;<strong class="al">are renewables perfect energy sources?</strong> Sadly, no. They&rsquo;re not. Not today.</p>
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<p id="8b9d" class="pw-post-body-paragraph lt lu fo lv b lw nj ly lz ma nk mc md me nl mg mh mi nm mk ml mm nn mo mp mq fh bj" data-selectable-paragraph="">Even if one of the pitfalls of renewable energy production is identified as not being neither programmable nor stackable, or storable, yet most importantly, it is the&nbsp;<strong class="lv fp">energy density</strong>&nbsp;&mdash; much lower than traditional sources where the highest of such density is represented by nuclear &mdash; and the critical or conflict minerals, also known as&nbsp;<strong class="lv fp">rare-earth elements,</strong> scarcity and scattering that dramatically puzzle our minds about the energy transitions dilemmas.</p>
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<p id="5fe6" class="pw-post-body-paragraph lt lu fo lv b lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk ml mm mn mo mp mq fh bj" data-selectable-paragraph="">Critical and conflictive minerals are unsustainably integral to our economy and the energy transitions we are shaping, as they are used every day in the front-running tech solutions of our homes, phones, laptops, and lightning, all the way to the largest green energy infrastructures or pillars from photovoltaic to wind turbines to electric vehicles.</p>
<p id="2ba1" class="pw-post-body-paragraph lt lu fo lv b lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk ml mm mn mo mp mq fh bj" data-selectable-paragraph="">To satisfy these renewable-based energy transitions, by 2040, we will need four times as many critical minerals while we already face enormous capacity shortages to meet current demand.&nbsp;<strong class="lv fp">This opens up two much broader yet essential aspects</strong>: regenerated or recycled and artificial materials as rheological proxies for critical minerals in new and innovative ways.&nbsp;<strong class="lv fp">Why not venture into these amazingly promising untapped sectors to clean the energy value chain from its upstream?</strong></p>
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<p id="7773" class="na nb fo be nc nd ne nf ng nh ni mq dv" data-selectable-paragraph=""><strong class="al">Green energy &mdash; in its renewable meaning &mdash; is part of the solution, not the only solution to energy de-carbonisation.</strong></p>
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<h2 class="pw-post-body-paragraph lt lu fo lv b lw nj ly lz ma nk mc md me nl mg mh mi nm mk ml mm nn mo mp mq fh bj">Relying on numbers</h2>
<p id="23c1" class="pw-post-body-paragraph lt lu fo lv b lw nj ly lz ma nk mc md me nl mg mh mi nm mk ml mm nn mo mp mq fh bj" data-selectable-paragraph="">It may sound provocative, yet I think the numbers and calculations become essential. If we want to establish the greenest parameters and key performance indicators to assess which energy source is the most sustainable,&nbsp;<strong class="lv fp">we must thoroughly perform a life cycle assessment of each</strong>. How? Thoroughly addressing the challenges and accountability for any specific energy source&rsquo;s entire value and supply chain to make responsible and informed decisions to guarantee ourselves a sustainable energy future.</p>
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<p id="6929" class="pw-post-body-paragraph lt lu fo lv b lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk ml mm mn mo mp mq fh bj" data-selectable-paragraph="">When it comes to green energy versus fossil fuels, in particular, when performing&nbsp;<strong class="lv fp">calculations on the impact of renewable and conventional energy on the environment</strong>, there are essential factors that we need to consider, like how much energy is in a specific source and whether we can easily get the materials we need to make it. We must also compare how much negative environmental impact comes from oil and natural gas compared to renewable energy sources.</p>
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<p id="31a0" class="na nb fo be nc nd ne nf ng nh ni mq dv" data-selectable-paragraph="">A&nbsp;<strong class="al">complete life cycle assessment</strong>&nbsp;of both energies must be made for a&nbsp;<strong class="al">correct quantitative evaluation</strong>.</p>
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<p id="9fe6" class="pw-post-body-paragraph lt lu fo lv b lw nj ly lz ma nk mc md me nl mg mh mi nm mk ml mm nn mo mp mq fh bj" data-selectable-paragraph="">Having a thorough understanding is of the greatest importance because, while emissions may be higher in oil-gas production, the renewables value chains may display unsustainable raw materials, disposal segments and energy density.&nbsp;<strong class="lv fp">To properly decarbonise and choose, we must calculate first, so to compare and replace</strong>, rethink and assess, finding alternatives to the whole energy transitions strategy, which means deserving to appropriately reinvent, calculate, produce, distribute, store, sell, legislate and use energy!</p>
<p id="a1af" class="pw-post-body-paragraph lt lu fo lv b lw lx ly lz ma mb mc md me mf mg mh mi mj mk ml mm mn mo mp mq fh bj" data-selectable-paragraph=""><strong class="lv fp">Let&rsquo;s prioritise a quantitative comparison through complete energy life cycle assessments&nbsp;</strong>to integrate and embrace the essential responsibility for the betterment of our planet that comes with it.</p>
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<p><em>This article is also published on the <a href="https://medium.com/@elenamorettini/the-energy-we-deserve-491b0d3e51e0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">author's blog</a>. illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of leading Sustainability &amp; Energy writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.</em></p>
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Elena Morettini

Elena Morettini

As many as possible

The energy we deserve

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