The Global ESGT Megatrends 2026-2027 | #1 – Grinding geopolitical tectonics

This is article 2 of 7 in The Global ESGT Megatrends 2026-2027. Here is article 1.

Source: World Economic Forum, Global Risks Report 2026

Source: GEC Risk Advisory 2026

A few thoughts come to mind:

The US became the unipolar hegemon after the end of the Cold War, the fragmentation of the Soviet Union, and the slow and then fast rise of China and emergence of the EU and NATO.

Then Russia began to meddle in former Soviet Republics, Africa, and especially Ukraine, beginning with the invasion of Crimea and eastern parts of Ukraine in 2014 and, of course, the full-fledged invasion and war there since 2022.

China during this period has become almost, if not already, a co-equal with (or even ahead of) the US on any number of measures: militarily, technologically, diplomatically and in terms of national infrastructure and innovation.

In recent times, under both Trump Administrations, the US has veered to the right on democracy (not supporting it abroad or even at home) and abandoned soft power worldwide (witness the devastating dismantling of USAID).

Indeed, the US has become the aggressor and bellicose on a number of new fronts: Venezuela, Greenland, and most of all the Iran War instigated by/in cooperation with Israel, which has led to global energy instability and other chaos, insecurity and uncertainty.

Beyond the EU, "Middle Powers" (like Canada, Saudi Arabia, India, Brazil, Japan, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Australia, the UK and a number of other nations) are rising, if nothing else, in trying to define their own joint or separate positions on global and regional geopolitical matters.

All of which leads me to posit the question for corporate leaders, boards of directors, academic and research institutions, political entities and NGO leaders to consider – are we headed to:

• A more bipolar world where the US and China battle it out for dominance and/or cooperation on essential global matters (health, AI)?
  
  
• Or is this the beginning of a more fragmented but still predictable multipolar world where Middle Powers assert their positions, often successfully, on international and regional affairs?
  
  
• Or are we heading into a more chaotic and unpredictable time, what I call "Asymmetric Multipolarity," best exemplified by a war-debilitated but still strategic-minded Iranian regime with its power to close the Strait of Hormuz almost at will?

And what does all this mean for corporations, NGOs, government agencies, regional institutions, etc.? I make a few suggestions for practical, proactive things we can all do now, in the closing section of this article and in the closing article of this series.

Sub-trend 2 – worldwide democracy in decline and at risk

2026 is the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence of the United States against its former coloniser, the UK. And yet US democracy is probably at greater risk today than in any of those 250 years (with one or two exceptions). The state of democracy in the US and worldwide is in long-term decline and at risk like never before in this century, as we have learned from a number of reliable research sources like V-Dem, Freedom House and the EIU. What are the implications of declining democracy? Is it on life support or is it regenerating, as several powerful examples (Hungary, Nepal, Guatemala, Poland, South Korea, Senegal) are providing?

As V-Dem describes in its Democracy Report 2026, in what it calls "The Great Reversal: 2000 to 2025", there have been major declines on a number of indicators of democracy worldwide, in freedom of expression, freedom of association, freedom and fairness of elections, and a serious rise in indicators of autocracy, including media censorship, torture and violence. See V-Dem's map below.

Source: V-Dem, Democracy Report 2026

On the other hand, in a more positive report from the EIU, we see a possible uptick in democracy very recently. See graphic below.

Source: EIU Democracy Report 2025

In an important example of the intersection between the democratic decline and the possible rise of autocracy in the US (at least for now), and the interference with or decline of other democracies, below is a graphic from the Eurasia Group's 2026 Top Risks Report showing the spillover of the so-called "Donroe Doctrine" into national and local politics in a number of Latin American countries, in which the report distinguishes several levels of interference or pressure from the US administration: rewards, punishment, mixed and not targeted (yet).

Source: Eurasia Group, Top Risks 2026

Sub-trend 3 – the rise of asymmetric virtual and other weapons and tools

I certainly do not want to paint everything as doom and gloom, but we are living through super trying times globally without the leadership of one or more powerful countries or regional blocs that put a priority on the welfare of nations, peoples, communities and other stakeholders.

This is not to take away from the various international and regional intergovernmental and other efforts that are doing the hard work of preventing violence and war, assisting with humanitarian needs, seeking high-tech guardrails and maintaining economic equilibrium, including at the World Bank, UN, EU, ASEAN, the African Union, the OAS and many others.

However, in addition to the global and national trends examined above, entities and their leaders must also deal with the following inter-related matters:

The rise of weapons of virtual war: hyped-up and AI-infused cyber-weapons, geolocation tech, frontier data platforms (e.g. Palantir), drone, robotic and other bleeding-edge new weapons like exploding pagers (as Israel used against Hamas and Hezbollah). And we haven't seen the biological/synthetic bio aspects of this yet.

The intensification of disinformation, misinformation and the overall weaponisation of data (good, bad, or useless) via increasingly sophisticated AI models and models of social engineering.

Asymmetric capabilities rising: the ability of almost anyone to use these virtual weapons of war, not only nations but organisations and even individuals operating out of their mother's basement (organised around political, criminal, terrorist or anarchist themes).

Convergence of virtual and physical: the dangers of course are not purely virtual, though it is through virtual tools that these entities and people arm themselves. The dangers are very real and very devastating, as the example of drone warfare between Russia and Ukraine has proven.

If we look at but one conflict tracker (produced by the Council on Foreign Relations and centred around what the US national interest is in 2026), we find the following map of global conflict, almost all of which involves advanced virtual/tech components:

Source: Council on Foreign Relations, Global Conflict Tracker 2026

As I said earlier, it doesn't pay to just be gloomy. It is up to each of us, anywhere, anyhow, to work together on converting these asymmetric virtual weapons of destruction into asymmetric tools for construction, invention and care for the most needy stakeholders in our communities, countries and worldwide.

For example, military geolocation tools can also be used for lifesaving purposes (drones carrying food and medicine). The ongoing devastating war, violence, international conflagration, and concomitant humanitarian disaster taking place in Sudan is now turbocharged by advanced virtual and other technologies that could instead be used for good to save people rather than for destruction. The very same tools used to kill soldiers on the battlefield can be used to find people stranded by climate and other catastrophes. And so on. You get the picture.

Leadership to-dos to manage and oversee grinding geopolitical tectonics

We conclude this article (as well as the next four) with a few tactical leadership to-dos that you can implement in your community, organisation or stakeholder relationships right now to deal with this onslaught of risk and opportunity. The version below is a sneak preview of what we will explore in greater detail in the final article in this 7-part series, titled: The Leadership ESGT 2026-2027 Futureproofing Blueprint.

Schedule periodic situational awareness updates. Prepare relevant geopolitical and political situational awareness updates for decision-makers.

Practice scenario planning. Engage in scenario planning exercises gauging best, medium and worst case political and geopolitical outcomes.

Have an executive in charge. Name an executive in charge of pulling together relevant geopolitical analysis and ensure the oversight body (board of directors) is getting regular reports and updates.

Nurture an effective cross-functional team. Have a cross-functional team of internal and external experts tackling implications and making recommendations based on relevant political and geopolitical information.

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