The Global ESGT Megatrends 2025-2026 | #1 - Geopolitical Tectonic Shifts Rupturing

This article is part of a seven-piece series on the Global ESGT Megatrends 2025-2026. You can find the introductory piece here.

Overview of “geopolitical tectonic shifts rupturing” 

As we mark the 80th anniversary of the end of WW2 and everything it brought into the world in terms of more stable international alliances, financial, economic, health, military, diplomatic norms and other structures, the globe is possibly facing the greatest period of uncertainty, danger, potential and opportunity we have experienced in decades.

Put bluntly, the US led international order may be coming to an end. If so, we may soon discover how unstable, turbulent and dangerous this emerging world order – or disorder – truly is. We may never know whether Trump is the prime instigator of this change or simply a well-timed catalyst for changes rooted in decades past. 

Will the current changes lead to a new world order and, if so, what will it look like and how perilous will it be? We are likely to see a fluid period where the currently most powerful world powers – the US, China and possibly the EU – and emerging influential players like Russia, India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and others, engage in shifting alliances until a clearer, more stable order emerges. The danger? Anything is possible. The upside? Anything is possible.

Whatever the answers may be, we find ourselves at a turning point that has reverberations for us all. And that is why I am calling this year’s forward-looking variation on the geopolitical tectonics theme – “geopolitical tectonic shifts rupturing.” Very simply, we are at a material inflection point in how international relations (diplomacy and conflict) are being carried out by the world’s major and other powers. These ruptures also influence and reflect national politics, affecting the way in which organisations like businesses must make decisions and take actions to survive and thrive in the tumult.

The geopolitical and political landscape

The “shifting”, “catalysing” and “crystallising” we discussed in previous analyses of the “Geopolitical Tectonics” megatrend (see Table 1) have evolved into “rupturing” as we look forward to the next 1-2 years. Whether they are causes or merely catalysts of  this rupture, the Trump administration is testing, breaking, reversing, changing and generally throwing monkey wrenches into the way diplomacy, international relations and conflict resolution have been largely approached over the past few decades – through established norms, protocols, alliances, and negotiations. 

Table 1

An examination of current geopolitical and political developments summarised in Table 2 only underscores how wide open the set of geopolitical and political possibilities might be:

Table 2

Key trends within the “geopolitical tectonic shifts rupturing” megatrend 

In today's world, it is important for decision-makers, policymakers and the average global citizen to consider four critically important sub-trends within this megatrend, occurring simultaneously and frequently intertwining and overlapping with each other. While the future is uncertain, preparation for uncertainty is critically important at every level – individual, organisational, local, community, provincial, state, national and international.

1. Global disruption will continue

Suddenly, international relationships have become downright perilous and deeply dangerous: 

• International economic relations:as seen in the Trump tariff “war” debacles

• International conflict resolution:witness the derailing of Ukraine/Russia peace attempts)

• Heretofore stable diplomatic relations with allies:deterioration of relations with the US’ closest allies – the EU, but also the threat of annexing or invading them – Canada, Greenland and Panama

And witness an even more shocking development: the US apparently becoming more allied to the strongmen, authoritarians and despots around the world – apparently because Trump likes them or what they represent, and feels a sense of kinship with them. I’m thinking of Russia’s Putin, China’s Xi, Turkey’s Erdoğan, Israel’s Netanyahu, a variety of oil rich Middle Eastern leaders, and Trump’s new pal in Central America, El Salvador’s Bukele. 

Not only do many of these leaders have autocratic rule in common, many of them also share what Anne Applebaum, a leading scholar of autocracy and kleptocracy, calls “Autocracy Inc.” and “Kleptocracy Inc.” where corruption, bribery, lavish gifts, with complete disregard to conflicts of interest, laws and norms, are given and received freely with impunity at least for now.

For an overview of top conflict zones around the world, see the map below from the Council on Foreign relations Preventive Conflicts 

Source: The Council on Foreign Relations. Center for Preventive Action. “Preventive Priorities Survey 2025”

2. Internal domestic political disruption will continue

Democracy has been in decline, while autocracy has been on the rise. The general internal polarization within democracies has intensified including in the world’s leading democratic nations such as the UK, the US, France, Germany and others.

According to the Economist Intelligence Unit: “Despite a record election year in 2024 – when more than half of the global population went to the polls – EIU’s Democracy Index recorded another democratic decline. The average score fell to 5.17, its lowest since the index began in 2006, down from 5.23 in 2023. Only 45% of the world’s population lives in a democracy, 39% under authoritarian rule, and 15% in “hybrid regimes” that combine electoral democracy with authoritarian tendencies.”

Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit. “Democracy Index 2024”. 2025

An important note however – it isn’t all gloom and doom on democracy. A counter narrative seems to be emerging, with democracies and democratic forces within fighting back. In recent elections in the UK, Germany, Canada, Australia we have seen a distinct rejection of far right populist alternatives aligned with the US MAGA movement, apparently in direct rejection of Trump and his policies. Even within the US, there appear to be embers of a broader democratic shift following the initial shock and awe of the Trump administration's first few months. Finally, the election of Pope Leo the XIVth – the first American Pope and apparently a deeply progressive individual – could be interpreted as an attempt from the world cardinals to counter the forces of authoritarianism and anti-immigration, that had taken over much of the globe.

3. Exponential technologies will continue to disrupt both internal politics and geopolitics

Exponential technologies – like Generative AI, surveillance drones, frontier computing and communications tech – are taking over every aspect of life including politics and geopolitics. The most disruptive domestic uses are those of the surveillance state and the deployment of weaponised misinformation and disinformation. The most visible signs geopolitically can be seen in the forward deployment of drone warfare and autonomous weapons in warzones – which we have seen in the Ukraine/Russia theatre and extensively in the Middle East.  In the graphic below is a depiction of the many uses of tech to control freedoms around the world.

Source: Freedom on the Net 2024. Freedom House. February 2025.

4. Organisations of all types will be continually challenged by the geopolitical and political disruption 

Organisationally, whether you are a business, nonprofit government agency or university, you need to have a plan to deal with all this political and geopolitical disruption. In the Next Steps section below are five actionable leadership to dos to consider.

Next steps – leadership to do’s

In today’s rapidly changing, increasingly daunting, sometimes exhilarating world, gaining situational awareness of the big multiyear megatrends is absolutely central to decision-making success – whether you are a businessperson, policymaker, board member, running an NGO or a government official. We need leaders, deciders and influencers to be situationally aware. We need our leaders to understand global megatrends.

What are organisational leaders to do under these intense circumstances? Here are a few true and tried to do’s:

1. Adopt geopolitical situational awareness in your executive briefings and board meetings – the times of dismissing geopolitical risk analysis from your business strategy are long gone whether you knew it or not

2. Focus like a laser beam on the intersection of your supply chain and the geoeconomic geostrategic footprint of your organisation – both upstream to your clients and downstream to your suppliers and their suppliers

3. Upgrade your supply chain tech to include whatever level of genAI sophistication may be needed or warranted to protect the business, its stakeholders and offer a competitive advantage

4. Name someone on your executive team to be the geopolitical, political and policy guru to coordinate all necessary information from your various departments – risk, operations, at the country and local levels – and ensure that proper reliable resources, subscriptions, and external experts are available to help in general and in a crisis

5. Integrate geopolitical & political analysis with enterprise risk management & risk governance – better yet ensure ERM has a robust bucket for geopolitics, politics and public policy and make sure both management and the board get periodic reports and updates

Final note: On unpredictability, uncertainty and preparedness 

There is only one thing that is certain today – uncertainty. 

There is only one thing that is predictable today – unpredictability.

And it isn’t all about gloom and doom. Indeed, the beauty of uncertainty and unpredictability is that it can also harbour opportunity for unpredictable good to great things to happen as well.

And preparedness is the key to success in these uncertain and unpredictable times. With preparation comes resilience and with resilience the ability to survive and even thrive through the darkness and back into the light.

This article is part of a seven-piece series on the Global ESGT Megatrends 2025–2026. You can explore all parts of the series, including the next piece, Megatrend #2 – “Exponential Tech Unleashed”.

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