So, where exactly does the US energy transition stand?

illuminem summarises for you the essential news of the day, reviewed by our editorial team. Read the full piece on Canary Media or enjoy below:

🗞️ Driving the news: Analysts are sharply divided over how much President Donald Trump’s policies have slowed the U.S. energy transition, with some modelling substantial power-sector emissions reductions through 2035 and others projecting less than half the economy-wide progress expected under Biden-era policies

🔭 The context: Clean-energy deployment is expected to remain relatively strong through 2030 because many wind and solar projects preserved federal tax incentives, but the outlook beyond that point is far less certain
• Rhodium Group scenarios range from roughly 53GW of annual clean-power additions between 2030 and 2040 to just 3GW under less favourable assumptions
• Rapid growth in data-centre electricity demand could also accelerate construction of new gas-fired power generation

🌍 Why it matters: The debate is increasingly shifting from whether the U.S. transition has been damaged to which policies can best sustain clean energy growth while keeping electricity affordable
• Analysts broadly support faster permitting, but disagree on whether future governments should restore wind and solar tax credits or concentrate support on technologies such as geothermal and advanced nuclear

⏭️ What’s next: The early 2030s are emerging as the critical period for the U.S. transition, with deployment likely to depend on technology costs, natural gas prices, electricity demand and the political direction set by the 2028 presidential election

📈 One stat: Rhodium’s scenarios put annual U.S. clean-power additions after 2030 anywhere between 3GW and 53GW, illustrating the extraordinary uncertainty surrounding the transition’s next phase

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