South Africa’s power sector emissions fall 19% as renewables gain ground, says BNEF

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🗞️ Driving the news: South Africa's power-sector emissions fell 19% in 2025 to 148 million tonnes of CO2, the largest annual drop recorded under BloombergNEF's Economic Transition Scenario, according to its South Africa Transition Factbook 2026
• The decline came despite coal output rising about 1%, as newer Kusile units improved fleet efficiency and oil-fired generation at Acacia and Port Rex fell

🔭 The context: Coal still supplied roughly 185 TWh, or 78% of generation, from around 43 GW of the country's 67 GW installed capacity, down from about 90% in 2015
• Solar and wind rose from 2% to 13% of generation over the same decade
• More than 12 GW of coal capacity was over 40 years old in 2025, with a further 16 GW aged 30 to 40 years

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: South Africa runs one of the world's most carbon-intensive electricity systems, so its trajectory carries weight beyond its borders
• BNEF projects a 52% fall from 2025 levels by 2050 under current economics, reaching about 71 MtCO2, but only 1.9 MtCO2 under its Net Zero Scenario
• There is a gap that depends on far faster renewables deployment alongside nuclear, gas, storage and carbon capture

⏭️ What's next: The 2025 Integrated Resource Plan targets retiring around 8 GW of coal by 2030, adding 14 GW of renewables and 6 GW of gas
• Grid capacity is the constraint: BNEF forecasts $63 billion of grid investment between 2026 and 2050, with 58% replacing aging infrastructure
• Corporate PPAs could support 73% of the 2.3 GW of utility-scale solar and wind expected in 2026

📈 One stat: A 19% fall in power-sector emissions to 148 MtCO2 in 2025

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