How a “super El Niño” could create record-breaking warming

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🗞️ Driving the news: Scientists are warning that a potential “super El Niño” could amplify global warming and trigger long-lasting climate disruptions across ecosystems, economies and societies worldwide

🔭 The context: El Niño is the warm phase of a natural Pacific Ocean climate cycle that releases huge amounts of stored ocean heat into the atmosphere
• Researchers say the next 12 to 18 months could see a particularly strong event, potentially pushing global average temperatures beyond the critical 1.5°C threshold
• A recent study also suggests that “super El Niños” can trigger persistent climate regime shifts, including drought, marine heatwaves and altered rainfall patterns lasting years or decades

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: A stronger El Niño in an already overheated world could accelerate coral bleaching, intensify wildfires, disrupt fisheries, worsen droughts and floods, and push ecosystems beyond recovery thresholds
• Scientists also warn that repeated climate shocks may permanently alter forests, oceans and water systems that billions of people and countless species depend on

⏭️ What’s next: Governments and scientists are closely monitoring Pacific Ocean temperatures while adaptation efforts face a massive financing gap
• Experts increasingly warn that societies must prepare not for temporary climate anomalies, but for a permanently more volatile climate baseline

💬 One quote: “Super El Niño may not just cause a one-time extreme event. It can shift the background climate conditions that people and ecosystems rely on.” — Jong-Seong Kug, Seoul National University

📈 One stat: Developing countries are estimated to need between $310 billion and $365 billion annually by 2035 to adapt to worsening climate impacts

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