Realistic hope in a fragmenting world (5): Brutal honesty, resilience and energy transitions

This is article 5 of 5 in Realistic Hope in a Fragmenting World. Here is article 4.

This is the final instalment in a series of articles exploring rational grounds to maintain hopes for a better future in a world that is becoming ever more troubling, and also steps that can be taken to realise such hopes. This piece aims to draw together a few additional threads.

Among multiple areas of concern, the focus has been on two distinct but linked issues that strongly affect and amplify most others. The first of these is the multi-decade march towards serious environmental damages driven by greenhouse gas emissions, and the associated need for energy transitions that dramatically reduce fossil fuel combustion. The second is the ongoing socio-political drift away from processes and choices significantly aimed at generating collective benefits, and towards the self-serving dominance of those able to secure political, financial, or military power.

These matters are linked. For example, the first development drives crop stresses, unrest and population movements that create tensions and fears exploited by those seeking power, and the second allows neglect of energy transitions by those with power. There is a real danger that this combination of issues becomes self-reinforcing.

Honest assessment: where we are today

Global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, albeit finally at a reducing rate, and they may plateau or even begin to fall by the end of this decade. This will not, however, be timely or significant enough for the stretch ambition of the Paris Agreement to be achieved. Surface average temperature rises will exceed 1.5 degrees C, and we need to prepare for the effects of this. We are already experiencing periods of extreme weather that are becoming more intense and/or frequent. I am currently sweltering in France in the second heat-wave of the past month.

We are heading towards higher global average surface temperatures somewhere between 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, with the concerning prospect of possible tipping points triggered in that range that could boost disruptions even further. A path towards the low end of that range was explored in the original Shell Sky Scenario I helped develop almost a decade ago, which was later enriched in the Sky1.5 scenario, which included extra carbon removals to address overshoot and eventually return towards the Paris stretch ambition (see Energy Transformation Scenarios). The other scenarios in that suite explore pathways that would eventually result in higher temperatures. The plausible upper end of the range has been assessed in combination with MIT Climate experts who carefully considered emission-reduction trends and actions that are likely in the future, absent globally coordinated mitigation efforts (see article in Environmental Economics and Policy Studies).

Given that range, it is inevitable that there will be an increase in severe environmental disruptions that will spill over into socio-political tensions and fractures. This is the brutal prospect we are facing, and we must face it honestly, already taking steps to adapt. Just how brutal, however, is still in our hands to shape, and it is here that realistic hope lies. We can make collective choices that steer towards the lower end of the range.

As anticipated almost 20 years ago in scenarios like Blueprints that I helped to develop, we have already seen explosive growth in power generation from renewable sources, in the sales of light-duty electric vehicles, and in the development of battery storage. As briefly outlined in the linked edition of the Dodo Club Newsletter (Newsletter 65), we understand the five main technical building blocks of energy transitions as well as the five main ways that transitions can be re-perceived as opportunities and hence accelerated. We know the techno-economic steps that could be taken, where the most difficult frictions lie, and what could be done about these. These are solid platforms for hope.

However, we also need to be honest about the current socio-political strains in the world that are obscuring or undermining attention to matters such as these. The focus of people on their self-interests becomes increasingly narrow and short-term as they perceive their security or livelihoods are threatened. These perceptions are growing. Currently, there are armed conflicts ongoing in most continents, constitutional fractures and political polarisation in the most powerful nation in the world, the widespread emphasis on a "might is right" mentality in geopolitics and broader society, and a growing gulf between the most and least economically and socially privileged citizens in many societies. In addition, the explosive development and introduction of Artificial Intelligence technologies is fuelling fears that previously well-rewarded and aspirational employment opportunities will evaporate, putting further financial pressure on the coming generation.

In my lifetime as a northern European, I have never experienced circumstances as troubling as these.

These are not encouraging conditions for building up the longer-horizon appreciation of enlightened self-interests and cross-boundary business and public-private alignments that can help accelerate transitions. Nevertheless, socio-political sentiments can swing and be massaged, and the reactions stimulated by immediate concerns like energy security and economic resilience can prove consistent with steps towards longer-horizon objectives. For example, security concerns about natural gas availability for power generation, heating and fertiliser manufacture arising from conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine are increasing attention to distributed renewable power generation, heat-pumps, and alternative manufacturing routes that are consistent with the longer-term decarbonisation of the energy system. While somewhat unsteady, these conditions can also be platforms for hope.

In addition, long-term, consistent and intentional industrial strategy has enabled China to become the global leader in manufacturing for the electro-technology transformation of the global energy system, and is now supporting investment into the harder-to-electrify sectors of industry. As highlighted in the June 2026 issue of the Global Project Tracker Report from Mission Possible Partnership, not only is investment in clean industry finally accelerating with more than double the number of Final Investment Decisions so far this year compared to last year, but also two-thirds of these are in China. China's industrial leadership will almost certainly stimulate competitive responses elsewhere. Despite the aforementioned challenges to longer-horizon decision-making, therefore, this is another platform for realistic hope.

Resilience

I have previously highlighted the neglected opportunities for smart business, smart policy and smart politics that can be surfaced through re-perceiving energy transitions (e.g. see illuminem Article). I still believe promoting opportunities is helpful and I will continue to do so. However, I also recognise the insight of behavioural economist Dan Kahneman that people are about twice as sensitive to the prospect of loss as to the potential for gain. This can help lock people into a status quo mentality which can be unhelpful when transitions are required.

My continual emphasis on the magnitude of the potential opportunities being neglected is an attempt to counter this bias. However, I believe a second approach may also be worth exploring, which leans into this natural bias.

The status quo is relatively comfortable for many people, particularly for the more economically fortunate. Nevertheless these comfortable lifestyles are currently driving the bulk of greenhouse gas emissions in the world. Yet we also collectively control resources (e.g. savings, property, pensions, social roles, voting rights) that could be deployed to make key changes. If more people perceive the real challenges to our relatively comfortable status quo, then we may be more inclined to make the adjustments required to maintain this and not risk its loss. This doesn't need to start with "Project Fear" and calls for sudden dramatic changes, but can perhaps grow from deeper and broader attention to the value of investing in "Resilience". In the well-known words of the character Tancredi Falconeri in Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa's novel The Leopard: "If we want things to stay as they are, things will have to change."

Resilience is a positive characteristic that can be socio-politically aspirational and encouraged, yet can also potentially be supercharged through concerns about immediate high-profile challenges. As noted already, the quest for Resilience driven by lessons from recent conflicts is supporting investments in energy transitions. Resilience to employment pressures arising from the spread of AI could improve attention to life-long learning and longer-horizon thinking. Concerns about jobs could also fuel attention to industrial competitiveness that accelerates investment in modern clean technologies, and/or into better ways of bringing young people into employment (e.g. as highlighted in this linked Article on education in The Netherlands) that may subsequently broaden their perspectives on self-interests.

Several of my Dodo Club Newsletters have tackled the notion of Resilience, i.e. the series beginning with Edition 28. In hindsight, I see now the deeper connection between realistic hope and resilience. The common factors for developing realistic hope highlighted in the first illuminem article in this series, from the book on Realistic Hope edited by Betty Sue Flowers and Angela Wilkinson, are also prominent in the descriptions of building Integrative and Transformative Resilience in the Newsletters. These are:

• Diversity – combining power from who is involved in progress
• Dialogue – how players engage with each other
• Experimentation – what individual players do
• Systems Thinking – the context for approaching problems
• Futures Framing – the purpose of co-creating a more positive future

Perhaps "Resilience" could become part of a political platform alongside "Opportunity" that bridges conservative and progressive sentiments and accelerates transitions? A platform of "Security, Resilience and Opportunity" sounds attractive to me.

Ten steps towards realising realistic hopes

Recognising the importance of both the techno-economic and socio-political arenas, I recommend the following steps towards achieving the least damaging pathways from our deeply troubling current circumstances:

1. Rejecting the misleading view that energy transitions are primarily a costly burden on society and instead credibly promoting these as a series of fast-moving, modest cost, demand-enabled, tipping points (albeit of uncertain timing), bringing opportunities to early movers and building much-needed resilience for all.
   
   
2. Understanding and supporting the five key technical building blocks in energy transitions: structural/infrastructural efficiencies, deep electrification of the economy, renewable power generation, steady substitution of liquid and gaseous fossil fuels with bio-fuels and hydrogen derivatives, and carbon dioxide removals by natural and technical means.
   
   
3. Addressing specific obstacles to progress such as the unnecessarily long time it takes to secure approvals to expand electricity grids and connect new large suppliers and users, and building long-duration energy storage capacity (e.g. underground hydrogen storage) to offset seasonal variations in solar/wind power.
   
   
4. Adopting a full business-chain perspective recognising that just eight chains account for over half of emissions – food, clothing, electronics, construction, automotives, FMCG, professional services and other freight – and supporting low-cost footprint standard-setting for targeted end-use products/services to supplement carbon pricing for upstream commodity providers.
   
   
5. Directing emerging data management and artificial intelligence capabilities towards verifiably tracking emissions footprints all the way to end-use of products or services (just as there is already a financial data trail), enabling regulators in large markets to set standards that powerfully incentivise the large upstream investments required to reduce emissions.
   
   
6. Breaking the vicious cycle that can power democratic manipulation, e.g. through addressing deprivation and investing in civic activities, community trust-building, long-term benefits with short-term milestones, and celebrating achievements.
   
   
7. Supporting leaders with a track-record in promoting common good and norms and processes that control corruption, and also imposing meaningful standards of demonstrable competence for those seeking high office.
   
   
8. Establishing a cadre of independent, experienced, and broadly trusted "socio-political auditors" with the power to enforce and enhance acceptable political norms, standards and processes.
   
   
9. Supporting and joining novel activities like UnitedPeoples that aim to provide a platform that takes tried and tested approaches to working together, and supercharges them through AI-enhanced connectivity.
   
   
10. Investing into the material circumstances, development and socialisation of young people, drawing on lessons learned from existing initiatives aimed at equipping them to put their talents and energy into driving common goods.

Final remarks

This concludes the current series of articles on Realistic Hope. Guided by the Stockdale Paradox, I hope this has done some justice to both the brutal reality of the circumstances we find ourselves in currently and also to possible pathways towards a dim light at the end of the tunnel. I am very unlikely to see 2050, let alone 2070, but I care about the societies and environment we are bequeathing to upcoming generations. If you are reading this, I suspect you care too. Together, we can make a difference.

illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the opinions of leading Sustainability Thought Leaders, their views do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.

The world needs sustainability knowledge. At illuminem, no interest group or shareholder can influence our work. Thank you for supporting our mission to make high-quality and independent sustainability information free for all. Every contribution helps. Thank you for donating today.