Realistic hopes in a fragmenting world (4): Energy and socio-political reform
· 15 min read
This is article 4 of 5 in Realistic Hope in a Fragmenting World. Here is article 3.
This series of articles has largely focused on the energy system in the context of technical, environmental and social developments, and highlighted realistic hopes for vital improvements. And yet we need to be brutally honest with ourselves. Alongside the countless benefits that energy powers, greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels are already affecting our environment in ways damaging to millions of people and embedding conditions that will affect billions in decades to come.
It is impossible to say in advance whether or not we will be capable of avoiding the worst consequences of delayed progress with energy transitions, or whether or not we will develop in time the business and socio-political alignments that could underpin progress. With the window of opportunity shrinking every year that passes, we have to be brutally honest that this is looking less likely.
Nevertheless, the previous article concluded with five insights providing guidance for effective action and hence foundations for building realistic hope. In summary:
The first couple of these points lie mainly in the techno-economic realm, with action in the gift of businesses and industrial policy-makers as the necessary economic incentives become better aligned. The latter points, however, condition the likely pace of achieving these improved alignments and lie in the socio-cultural and socio-political realms. These are highly contested arenas, with the most powerful military and economic actors on the planet, both states and business entities, currently re-shaping norms through actions driven by narrow self-interests rather than the prospect of collective benefits.
The earlier pieces have addressed the techno-economic aspects in considerable detail, so this article will focus on addressing the current challenging societal conditions and suggest developments that could accelerate alignments and transitions.
Alignments form around common motivations, and decay when these are not recognised. The previous article highlighted, for example, the current sharp decline in adherence to the so-called "rules-based international order". Cultural norms underpinning the value and significance of respecting international "rules" have weakened in powerful nations and are now insufficient for enforcement through social/diplomatic pressure in the absence of other coercive mechanisms.
Within several of these individual nations, the drift towards a narrowing conception of self-interests has also been promoted by a certain brand of politician and their financial backers. These have been sufficiently organised and resourced to influence mass sentiment and secure power in pursuit of their own narrow interests and enrichment, ultimately at the expense of the broader base of public support through which power was secured. I considered this form of democratic manipulation in an edition of the Dodo Club Newsletter, and its vicious cycle of drivers will recur repeatedly unless continually countered by promoting a broader conception of self-interest that reaches beyond the local and immediate, and embraces common goods. As suggested in that Newsletter, steps towards this include:
Activating this self-reinforcing cycle of malaise is just one significant way that democratic processes can be captured by narrow self-interests with the will and resources to organise sufficiently, rather than being a channel for balancing and reflecting a broader array of interests as intended. One problem is that grassroots processes have largely emerged, or been designed, for operation in historical periods quite alien from current circumstances, before the advent of social media, cyber-manipulation and the current levels of financial accumulation and deployment for political purposes. As the general public often seems complacent about, or indifferent to, political process and is not organised, it can be relatively easy to capture targeted political power with just a modest organisation and even modest resources behind you. For example, the young adult offspring of one of my closest friends has almost accidentally found herself voted into a position of power as a councillor in the recent local elections in the UK.
From several decades ago, I can recall how the national UK Labour Party was almost taken over by a far-left faction called Militant Tendency which built power bases exploiting weak governance in local party organisations in specific cities like Liverpool. Similarly, weaknesses and tensions within the UK Tory Party brought instability in national government and opened the door for the far-right Brexit Party which later transformed into the current Reform Party. Weak governance and the capture of power can also translate into financial corruption as strongly alleged in both Liverpool Council in the 1980s and irregularities in funding Reform. Recently, financial abuse was facilitated in the Scottish National Party (SNP) by Peter Murrell's accumulation of power through being both married to the party leader and First Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, and also becoming the Chief Executive of the SNP organisation.
Political governance and monitoring processes that are weak or no longer fit-for-purpose provide opportunities for exploitation, abuse and capture by narrow interests. Once captured, power can be used to manipulate or weaken processes further to the benefit of the power-holder. For example, we have experienced two centuries of gerrymandering to re-shape voting districts for political advantage, and are currently witnessing the fundamental nature of the US constitution being tested by a regime intent on weakening controls on, and within, the executive arm. Securing Presidential and family immunity from tax audits is just the latest example of financial irregularity.
The immense challenge to reforming, strengthening and monitoring democratic processes is that this generally involves agreement and compromise among multiple parties, many of which hold veto power over change and are suspicious of each other. This delays or even sinks reforms, meaning that processes remain behind the times and may always remain open to exploitation by those intent on securing political power.
Despite these challenges, and high-profile counter-examples, positive political and social reform and corruption control do happen and have happened in the past. In just a couple of generations, the island of Singapore has risen from colonial rule and poverty to becoming a shining light in South East Asia. Rising from European chaos and destruction in WWII, populations in the Nordic countries now report the highest average levels of personal life satisfaction in the world.
Leaders have emerged in these nations with a broad appeal to common good and investment in rules, norms and processes that control corruption and encourage discipline. In this, as noted in the previous article, the significance of societal rules being accepted by the bulk of people needs to be recognised. It is unsurprising that Singapore and the Nordics rank among the best nations in the world for excluding corruption in Transparency International's corruption index.
This is important because corruption among leaders provides license for abuse across broader society. While the majority of people behave morally most of the time, they cheat occasionally, and a small number are regularly anti-social. Accepting corruption within society erodes trust and the moral strength of the culture and therefore its capacity to sustain and realise realistic hopes that involve coordination or alignment among multiple parties.
Hence establishing independent resources and procedures for assessing and auditing political practices and processes can be an underlying enabler of realistic hopes. I spent my working life in a large international organisation with a long history, a culture of professionalism, and corporate values of honesty, integrity and respect for people. While there may have been occasional individual slips, for over four decades I witnessed business conducted according to these principles. So, without realising it, I assumed this was a norm everywhere, and for years I was frustrated by the regular different kinds of audit conducted on the activities I was responsible for. Now, however, having seen more of individual, organisational and social behaviour in different contexts, I recognise the broader value this audit activity brings and the reason the company invested considerable resources in it, including as a training ground for several future senior leaders. Building a cadre of experienced auditors capable of going beyond the "tick-box" examination of simple compliance to rulebooks is essential as human creativity will always find ways around individual rules, as highlighted in the book The End of Alchemy written by the former governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, reflecting on the 2008 global financial crisis.
The importance of the behaviour of senior leaders can also not be overstated, not only for the direct impact of their choices but also for the values they project into society. Lee Kuan Yew in Singapore, for example, held and upheld strong personal values, and is often described as having been a benevolent dictator. For many good reasons, the authoritarian overtones of that description are troubling, but are balanced by the recognition of his personal values and commitment to the good of the overall society. Interestingly, the Singapore government service adopted many of the leadership development processes of my former company as well as the practice of scenario-based planning that I was ultimately responsible for in the company. I like to think that these approaches have contributed to the flourishing of the nation.
As well as protecting from the downsides of human behaviour, hope for the future also crucially depends on amplifying and connecting the upsides. Most people wish to simply get on with their lives and do good things most of the time. Thanks to the growth of the global middle classes, there are growing numbers of people in the world with financial and other resources that can be invested in constructive activities. A substantial fraction of these are willing to contribute to generating and sustaining collective goods, and many are already involved with this through business, not-for-profit, governmental or NGO activities. The challenge is that these activities are generally isolated or fragmented and so miss opportunities for powerful synergies, meaningful alignments and cross-organisational learning. Fortunately, the new information technology platforms and capabilities currently emerging can help connect these activities and enhance their coherence, if built upon solid foundational principles. A potentially powerful approach that I support is being championed by Bob Westrope who has founded UnitedPeoples.
UnitedPeoples (UP) leverages new technical capabilities like AI, recognising that governments and current organisations are proving either too slow or unable to address critical challenges facing the world that cross traditional boundaries. It takes tried and tested approaches to working together, and supercharges them through AI-enhanced connectivity. I highly recommend that you check it out and consider getting involved. One advantage of the approach is that it recognises that different situations involving people with different histories need to be approached in ways customised to these individual circumstances. It doesn't fall into the "one size fits all", universalist myth rightly criticised by political philosophers like John Gray (e.g. see the book False Dawn), yet coherence at scale is retained through ensuring related activities are underpinned by a simple set of constitutional tenets that the majority of right-minded people would support and consider self-evident.
Given the continuing and often irreversible damage that we are collectively causing to our environment and societies, speed of reform is of the essence. Yet, above, difficult obstacles and frictions that slow change down have been highlighted. Nevertheless, we also have examples of change being explosively rapid once the relevant stars align, as illustrated with the deployment of energy transition technologies like renewable power, batteries and light-duty electric vehicles, and at societal level with the rise of Singapore and other Asian Tigers. In my business career I experienced the rapid turnaround of a huge organisation that had been in long-term decline until the framework in which it was operating was changed. This allowed the deep experience and know-how in the enterprise to be deployed in new ways that motivated and energised staff. Within two years, the enterprise was booming. Perhaps new approaches like UnitedPeoples can provide similar re-framing at a societal level?
I have already noted that particular social and cultural norms are conducive to realising realistic hopes for the future, as is the emergence of leaders with particular characteristics. While we obviously need to accelerate action now, sustaining this attention through strengthening or shifting norms and developing new leaders is a generational activity. As highlighted in the previous article, if young people between the ages of about 15 to 25 become immersed in a broader conception of their self-interests and the value of collective social action in delivering common goods and services for everybody, then they are more likely to become invested in productive activity. Societal investment into the material circumstances, development and socialisation of young people in that early period of their lives will surely bear great dividends later.
In approaching this, lessons can be drawn from various existing programmes and initiatives. United World Colleges teach the International Baccalaureate to 16-19 year old students around the world with a stated mission "to inspire young people to put their talents and energy into driving change around the world, no matter which future path they choose". NXplorersis an international activity I helped catalyse that is aimed at cultivating systems thinking skills to help "young people have the capability to create positive movements for change". The Museum of Discovery at Adelaide University touches tens of thousands of youngsters every year with exhibitions "designed for people aged 15-25, showcasing how research shapes our understanding of the world around us to inform our futures", and is part of an international community of future-oriented museums.
Directing attention to developing the character and competence of leadership to govern complex societies well is crucial to the well-being of all of us and our capacity to realise realistic hopes. Many long-established organisations have mature leadership programmes with people only trusted with the most responsible positions after years of developing and demonstrating competence at progressively more responsible levels. This was true in my former company, and I recognised this approach in the Singapore government service and the UK Civil Service.
A current challenge that has emerged in both the business and political worlds is the rapid accumulation of huge power by individuals who have not been through that maturing and testing process. The Tech Billionaires command huge financial resources and socially influential technologies without having been through that kind of immersion in responsibility and feedback. Similarly, in democracies, career politicians often jostle for immense power and position in society without having demonstrated competence and learning through the responsibility of managing large and diverse groups of people.
While I am no fan of authoritarian forms of government, senior leaders in China have at least all risen through the ranks of the Party by demonstrating competence in governing at progressively larger and more complex levels in society. This builds on a long history of bureaucratic meritocracy in the country. Could democracies also evolve mechanisms that impose meaningful standards of demonstrable competence for those seeking high office?
Recognising that fertile ground for evolving the necessary alignments to deliver the realistic hopes for our collective futures lies in the socio-cultural and socio-political realms, I have tried to explore in this article some of the main challenges and some possible opportunities in these areas. These possibilities include:
If we fail to invest our attention, support and resources in building societies that work well, then we will find ourselves in an environmentally blighted world with societies that function poorly for most of us. The window for realistic hope still exists but is narrowing.
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