This is the fifth part of a five-part research paper on improving energy and environmental security, resiliency, and reliability situations in Japan. You can find part one here, part two here, part three here and part four here.

Section five: discussion

As discussed in previous sections, Japan has various interactions between its energy and environmental security, resilience, and reliability. The literature review focuses on these six topics by surveying Japan’s national security, defense, energy, and environmental publications, statistical data, international research reports, scholarly articles, and other secondary sources. First, the section examines energy security’s importance for the country’s energy, policy, security, and defense strategies. It also describes scholarly studies, providing solutions in the context of the current energy transition. Second, the review evaluates the energy resilience-related research on the Japanese electricity system’s transformation and proposals, namely different community responses; the 100% RE electricity system set-up; the “anti-fragile” measures; and blockchain implementation. Third, the section assesses the energy reliability-connected research about the energy storage systems, Japan’s current situation, and the proposal about the regulatory shift to merit order dispatch, renewables and away from nuclear power. Fourth, based on national security/defense publications and a scholarly article, the review evaluates Japan’s focus on environmental security. Fifth, the section examines scholarly research, analyzing the concepts, development opportunities, and the importance of integrated policies for environmental resilience. Lastly, while examining environmental reliability, the review concludes by assessing Japan’s meteorological review of its natural disaster trends and a scholarly article, emphasizing the cooperation of private and public sectors in adapting to the various states of the Japanese environment.

The literature review provides the context for analyzing four proposed sectoral policy options, separately addressing Japan's energy security, energy resilience, energy reliability, and environmental issues (security, resilience, and reliability). The analysis describes ideal actions for achieving the policies' objectives. Policy 1 focuses on energy security by diversifying energy sources and suppliers and strengthening energy systems' cyber/physical security measures. It proposes actions for deploying the short/medium/long term-based energy mixes/technologies, behavioral changes, and cyber/physical security measures. Policy 2 strives to enhance energy resilience by presenting actions necessary for accelerating RE deployment, enhancing existing and building new energy infrastructure, and deploying smart/microgrids and blockchain. Policy 3 concentrates on improving energy reliability by proposing actions to modernize electric grids, focus on cleaner and more reliable energy sources in various time frames and integrate energy storage during the energy transition. Policy 4 combines all environmental issues (security, resilience, and reliability) and proposes improvement actions by focusing on GHG reduction through the change in energy systems and better energy demand and supply management; circular economies for energy, minerals, water, and food systems; the diversification of food sources and suppliers; regenerative farming and agriculture; integrated environmental resilience policies, among others. The analysis also considers the costs and benefits of each policy option, the time frames for their implementations, and negative and positive externalities connected to the tradeoffs among energy and environmental resilience and security, economic resilience and security, and political-military resilience and security.  The analysis leads to the following key findings:

First, the probable unintended consequences connected to the tradeoffs between Japanese energy, environmental, economic, political, and military issues are inevitable. For example, due to the energy crisis (Energy Now Media, 2022), reacknowledging LNG’s role in Japan’s energy transition (through the 2040s) clashes with environmental security but assists energy and economic security objectives. Second, Japanese modernized energy systems, focused on becoming “anti-fragile,” may reliably meet energy demand with sizable additions of nuclear energy, RE, hydrogen, and energy storage. Third, more significant cleaner energy deployment can help reduce fossil fuel dependency and achieve carbon neutrality, strengthening Japan’s energy and environmental security. Fourth, new technologies, more flexible in balancing energy supply and demand, can improve energy demand management and potentially enhance energy resilience and reliability. Fifth, given the enormous waste of resources, new circular economies for energy, water, food, and minerals systems can improve energy and environmental security. Sixth, the diversification in sources and suppliers matters for energy and environmental security. Lastly, the lack of environmental resilience and reliability may negatively affect other aspects of Japan, and other aspects of Japan may affect these factors. 

Japan needs to be on course to meet its 2030 emission reduction target or its 2050 carbon neutrality goal. It does not seem the country will reach them (Bloomberg, 2023). Japan faces multiple environmental security, resilience, and reliability issues. Simultaneously, it must confront energy security, resilience, and reliability challenges. Although the task is complex, the integrated policies, influenced by the SEI’s (Hoff, 2011) nexus framework for water, energy, and food security and the previously proposed sectoral actions for energy and environmental resilience and reliability cross-sectoral policies, might improve Japanese energy and environmental situations. Since water and food security represent only parts of environmental security, the environmental risks actions are also included. The nexus approach is crucial to cross-sectoral policies since “water, food, and energy form a nexus at the heart of sustainable development” (UN Water, 2023). The SEI’s framework’s principles need to guide these policies: 1) economy (creating more with less), 2) environment (investing in sustaining ecosystem services), and 3) society (accelerating better access and integration of the poorest). The SEI’s framework considers climate change, urbanization, and population growth as combined pressures on the limited resources and ecosystems. Governance (enabling factors, incentives), finance, and innovation are essential for the success of these integrated policies (Hoff, 2011). 

Moreover, Japan can follow additional policy recommendations, such as 1) choosing cleaner energy options for the energy transition by comparing their supply chains and lifecycle emissions, 2) realizing that the most meaningful options to strengthen energy situations require longer timeframes and often may not be same actions needed to solve environmental issues, 3) creating a truly circular economy - “system within systems nested in systems and then linked to other systems and a recurring [closed] circle of resources and products” (Sullivan, 2022b) – is essential for solving energy and environmental challenges, and 4) ensuring the just and orderly nature of energy transition, while accounting for various net externalities and tradeoffs. Following these recommendations, the three nexus-integrated policy options with their outcomes and caveats, designed for short/medium/long-term time frames, are presented in Appendix B (Tables 1-3). For the sake of the research paper’s analysis, these policy options do not incorporate the uncertainty of politics connected to implementing these policies.

Since no countries are energy-independent (Bazilian and Hendrix, 2022; Sullivan, 2021a), there are interconnected political, economic, and military impacts of breaches on energy security, reliability, and resilience. At the same time, climate change, water, and food security are global issues that can only be solved through international cooperation. Moreover, the energy and environmental security-related global supply chains need to be considered at all levels. Thus, outside entities, such as alliances, other nation-states, international organizations, and trading and investment partners, can help make the integrated policies for Japan more successful. 

Due to Japanese dependency on energy, food, and minerals imports, diplomatic efforts across ally/partner nations and competitor/possible enemies are crucial to reduce tensions and alleviate risks to the international choke points not only for oil, LNG, and food but also for the future green hydrogen, ammonia, and critical minerals shipping trades. These chokepoints (South China Sea, East China Sea, Hormuz, etc.) represent an essential part of global energy and environmental security due to the high volume of petroleum, food, and other materials being transported through these global chokepoints by maritime routes (EIA, 2017). The Japanese diplomatic efforts to alleviate energy and environmental security risks to chokepoints are significant across competitors and possible enemies (China and Russia). Japan should note that, due to current global tensions related to a potential Great Powers Conflict (CFR, 2023), the priority of military solutions before diplomatic ones might lead to strategic blunders (Gompert et al., 2014), hurting the security of global chokepoints. Furthermore, since cleaner energy sources bring geopolitical risks, Japan must work closely with allies and organizations to accumulate critical minerals, the building blocks of cleaner energy solutions. For example, Japan signed the US-Japan Critical Minerals Agreement, which secures these countries’ commitment to enhance supply chains and promote electric battery technologies (Wan, 2023). Japan should also become a more assertive participant as an observer at the Arctic Council (Kaneko, 2021) to enhance its energy and environmental security (Kaneko, 2021). Lastly, Japan should work with the UNDP (2023) and USAID (MFAJ, 2003) to deliver sustainable development results and ensure economic justice for the mineral mining workforces in developing countries. To pay for the high cost of the presented nexus-integrated policies, Japan might need to borrow additional funds from the World Bank (2021) and seek additional global investment partners. 

Conclusion

Location, topography, climate, culture, and the constant emphasis on education were crucial in developing Japan as a unique island nation with “a remarkable track record of confronting and transcending adversity” (Pilling, 2015; Henshall, 2012). Japan needs to confront and transcend its current energy and environmental challenges. In a world dominated by net-zero arguments, it is crucial to devise integrated policies, simultaneously accounting for energy and environmental security, resilience, and reliability issues. No studies in the public domain present integrated policies for Japan on these issues based on the nexus frameworks. This study attempts to fill this lacuna.

Appendix A

Figure 1. Japan’s generation by source or energy, 2012-2021

Note: Japan’s generation by source, 2012-2021 (Figure 6). From Country Analysis Brief: Japan (p.9) by U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2023. 

Figure 2. Japan’s Energy Balance (2020)

Note: Japan - Sankey Diagram. From The Energy Mix by International Energy Agency (2023d)

Figure 3. Energy consumption by source, Japan 

Note: Energy consumption by source, Japan. From Japan: What sources does the country get its energy from? From OurWorldIndata.org (2023).

Appendix B

Table 1.  Nexus – Integrated Policy (Short-Term) (2023-2030)

Caveats:

1. Although the policy appears technically and politically feasible, and within the bounds of reasonable possibilities, there is uncertainty about the total cost of all implementations.  
   Besides the Japanese government's investment in decarbonization technologies through the Green Innovation Fund and Green Transformation Bonds (Shiraishi et al., 2023),  
   additional government and private sector investment might be required for financing solutions for energy and environmental security, resilience and reliability challenges.
2. Further assessment is required to understand the operational impacts of the full portfolio of cleaner energy technology on Japanese energy systems.
3. The cleaner energy transition depends on the sustainable supply chains for critical minerals; LNG and hydrogen/ammonia imports on trade/political/military stability at chokepoints and beyond.
4. Wars/pandemics can severely impact the supply chains (food and energy) between Japan and other countries.
5. Internal public resistance (communities and businesses) to the fast cleaner energy transition might present roadblocks to the policy implementation.

Policy Outcomes:

Besides setting the ground stage for energy and  environmental resilience and reliability and security (env. risks) success, the policy accomplishes the following in the nexus sectors:

• Governance: Lessens market and policy uncertainties.
• Innovation: Helps identify and implement the best systems-efficient technologies for cross-sectoral applications.
• Finance: Establishes the best uses for government subsidies and avenues for public and private sector collaboration.
• Economy: "Creating more with less" becomes possible with the initial set-up of circular economies.
• Society: The start of cross-sectoral solutions can assist in accelerating access and integration of the poorest in society. 

Effective actions for energy & environmental resilience and reliability and environmental security (env. risks / climate change). 

Table 2. Nexus - Integrated Policy (Medium-Term) (2030-2050)

Caveats:

1. Although the policy appears technically and politically feasible, and within the bounds of reasonable possibilities, there is uncertainty about the total cost of such implementations.  
   Besides the Japanese government's investment in decarbonization technologies through the Green Innovation Fund and Green Transformation Bonds (Shiraishi et al., 2023),  
   additional government and private sector investment might be required for financing solutions for energy and environmental resilience and reliability challenges.
2. Further assessment is required to understand the operational impacts of the full portfolio of cleaner energy technology on Japanese energy systems.
3. The cleaner energy transition depends on the sustainable supply chains for critical minerals; LNG and hydrogen/ammonia imports on trade/political/military stability at chokepoints and beyond.
4. Wars/pandemics can severely impact the supply chains (food and energy) between Japan and other countries.
5. Internal public resistance (communities and businesses) to the fast cleaner energy transition might present roadblocks to the policy implementation.

Policy Outcomes:

Besides continuing the progress for energy and  environmental resilience and reliability and security (env. risks) success, the policy accomplishes the following in the nexus sectors:

• Governance: Assists in accelerating and completing the phaseout of coal-fired plants.
• Innovation: Implements the best nexus systems-efficient energy technologies (i.e. geothermal, tidal, and wave) for cross-sectoral applications.
• Finance: Establishes avenues for public and private sector collaboration in financing the cleaner energies roll-out.
• Economy: "Creating more with less" becomes possible with accelerating circular economies; producing green hydrogen from wastewater, desalination as a co-product of nuclear power generation, etc.
• Society: The start of cross-sectoral solutions can assist in accelerating access and integration of the poorest in society.  Targeted assistance policies help pursue a just energy transition.

Effective actions for energy & environmental resilience and reliability and environmental security (env. risks/climate change). 

Table 3. Nexus - Integrated Policy (Long-Term) (2050-beyond)

Caveats:

1. Although the policy appears technically and politically feasible, and within the bounds of reasonable possibilities, there is uncertainty about the total cost of such implementations.  
   Besides the Japanese government's investment in decarbonization technologies through the Green Innovation Fund and Green Transformation Bonds (Shiraishi et al., 2023),  
   additional government and private sector investment might be required for financing solutions for energy and environmental resilience and reliability challenges.
2. Further assessment is required to understand the operational impacts of the full portfolio of cleaner energy technology on Japanese energy systems.
3. The cleaner energy transition depends on the sustainable supply chains for critical minerals; LNG and hydrogen/ammonia imports on trade/political/military stability at chokepoints and beyond.
4. Wars/pandemics can severely impact the supply chains (food and energy) between Japan and other countries.
5. Internal public resistance (communities and businesses) to the fast cleaner energy transition might present roadblocks to the policy implementation.

Policy Outcomes:

Besides continuing the progress for energy and  environmental resilience and reliability and security (env. risks) success, the policy accomplishes the following in the nexus sectors:

• Governance: Assists in accelerating and completing the phaseout of coal-fired plants.
• Innovation: Implements the best nexus systems-efficient energy technologies (i.e. geothermal, tidal, and wave) for cross-sectoral applications.
• Finance: Establishes avenues for public and private sector collaboration in financing the cleaner energies roll-out.
• Economy: "Creating more with less" becomes possible with accelerating circular economies; producing green hydrogen from wastewater, desalination as a co-product of nuclear power generation, etc.
• Society: The start of cross-sectoral solutions can assist in accelerating access and integration of the poorest in society.  Targeted assistance policies help pursue a just energy transition.

Effective actions for energy & environmental resilience and reliability and environmental security (env. risks/climate change). 

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