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This is the fourth part of a five-part research paper on improving energy and environmental security, resiliency, and reliability situations in Japan. You can find part one here, part two here, part three here and part five here.
This section, laid out in Tables 2-5, analyzes the proposed policy options for improving Japanese energy and environmental security, resilience, and reliability.
Policy one: energy security
Table 2. Breakdown of policy proposal one
| Short-term (2023-2030) | Medium-term (2030-2050) | Long-term (2050 and beyond) |
|
- Set medium-term policy targets, create policy tools, encourage business participation for coal phaseout and renewable generation deployment (solar and wind, especially, offshore) beyond 2030 to lessen market and policy uncertainties (Shiraishi et al.; Obiyashi, 2023) - Focus on energy efficiency, set phaseout targets for fossil fueled vehicles, and electrify mobility to reduce fossil fuel dependence (IEA, 2021; BloombergNEF, 2023) - Invest in additional LNG infrastructure (terminals and storage), designating them as "transition assets". Fast-track the permitting process and incentivize projects with low-carbon emissions in their investment plans or operations, such as hydrogen-ready infrastructure (Bordoff & Sullivan, 2022j: IIEJ, 2023; IEA, 2022a) - Lessen the load of older LNG terminals and spread in new terminals to avoid "tyranny of small number and small spaces" (Sullivan, 2019) - Pursue methane hydrates exploration (2023-2027) (JAPEX, 2023) - Restart 16 nuclear reactors; allow 2 under construction to start (WNA, 2023); obtain water desalination from nuclear power plants cogeneration (Sullivan, 2023c); create a circular economy for nuclear fuel (Sullivan, 2022a) - Promote consumer's conservation behavioral changes similar to "setsuden"(Doi & Ogawa, 2021) - Redo hydrogen policy; focus on implementation in the "hard-to-abate" sectors; build relationships hydrogen suppliers (Ishihara and Ohno, 2023; Nakano, 2021, 2022; Delatte, 2023; Collins, 2022; ASEP, 2017) - To ensure cleaner energy deployment, diversify sources and suppliers of critical minerals (IEA, 2023b); and start creating a circular economy for minerals (Sullivan, 2022b) - Prevent and mitigate cybersecurity & physical challenges during cleaner energy transition (METI, 2019) - applicable for Policies 2&3. |
- Complete coal power phaseout in 2035; Support RE capacity additions (Shiraishi et al., 2023); - Focus on energy efficiency and electrification to reduce fossil fuels dependence, especially, oil (IEA, 2021; BloombergNEF, 2023) - Use LNG infrastructure but provide incentives for retroffiting or early retirement as other cleaner technologies (synthetic LNG, green hydrogen, green ammonia) take precedence (Shiryaevskaya, 2022) - Utilize offshore wind energy and direct seawater electrolysis for domestic green hydrogen production (Pagani et al.; Wu, 2023) - Re-assess the viability/necessity of methane hydrates for Japan's energy needs - Continue restarting operable nuclear reactors (WNA, 2023); new reactors (SMRs). Desalination as a co-generation - Tap geothermal resources (23 GW) and educate communities about its necessity for energy security (Ozawa and Balmer; Baseload Power Japan, 2023) - Same policy for conservation behavioral changes - Test tidal & wave energy potential (Newcomb, 2022; A&J, 2017) - Focus on cleaner hydrogen (blue and green) production, prioritizing green hydrogen (Ishihara and Ohno, 2023); explore wastewater for green hydrogen technology (Rodriguez et al., 2023) and obtain the rest from reliable clean hydrogen suppliers - Strengthen minerals supplier relationships and diversify sources, including those from the Arctic (EEA, n.d.) - Adapt, prevent, and mitigate cyber & physical security challenges |
- Support / upgrade RE deployment based on new technologies - Eventual oil phaseout; support energy efficiency, electrification - Continue incentivizing the phase-out of "transition assets" and transfer into cleaner energy hubs by providing carbon credits or assisting in creating a carbon retirement portfolio (Bordoff and O'Sullivan, 2022; Handler and Bazilian, 2021) - Operate existing nuclear reactors; retire old models and bring new nuclear technologies to assure cleaner and reliable baseload power source; desalination - Utilize geothermal potential and continue educating the public - Same policy for conservation behavioral changes - Use tidal & wave energy commercially - Focus on cleaner hydrogen production, prioritizing of substantial increase of domestic green and pink hydrogen. Diversify sources and suppliers - Strengthen mineral supplier relationships and diversify sources, including those from the Arctic (EEA, n.d.) - Adapt, prevent, and mitigate cyber & physical security challenges |
| Costs | Benefits | |
|
- Overall: Japan's cleaner energy transition with an emphasis on energy security will be a costly endeavor, requiring government and private sector investment, requiring direct investment and concessional/grant payments. Annual cost RE integration can reach 353 billion yen by 2050 (ETS, 2023, RP, 2022) - Retrofitting LNG terminals into cleaner energies hubs will be expensive, however, starting with syntheric CH4 might lessen the costs (Shirayevskaya, 2022) - Potential negative socio-economic effect on economic sectors and communities connected to fossil fuels (IRENA, 2022) - Nuclear and hydrogen industries expansion: negative effect on water and food security (Sullivan, 2023) |
Combined steps can manage the gap between urgent energy needs and long-term energy security, which will be not based on fossil fuels: - Reliance on LNG (especially, in the short-term) can assure energy availability at an affordable price and stabilize natural gas markets (IIEJ, 2023) - Long-term: energy, economic, environmental, political-military security and resilience can be strengthened by the diversification of energy sources and suppliers (Bhatt, 2022, Sullivan, 2023) - Prevention and mitigation of evolving cybersecurity challenges can strengthen energy security (METI, 2019) |
| Externalities connected to tradeoffs between: | ||
| Energy and environmental resilience and security | Economic resilience and security | Political-military resilience and security |
|
- Since Japan participates in the Global Methane Pledge (2023) to reduce potent methane emissions, it might be difficult to justify the increase of LNG infrastructure and methane hydrates exploration. However, it is a reliable and affordable energy source (IEF, 2021) (ES; ENVS) - Bad state or non-state actors might attack growing RE infrastructure (especially, offshore wind) (Ture, n.d.). Climate change effects on infrastructure, such as falling global wind speeds (Bordoff & O'Sullivan, 2023) (ES, ENVS, ER, ENVS) - Challenges: fuel, nuclear waste disposal, building additional facilities besides the Rokasho Reprocessing Plant (FY2024) as nuclear power expands (WNA; JNFL; Bordoff & O' Sullivan, 2023) (ES, ENVS) - Nuclear power and hydrogen production: need massive amount of water (ES: ENVS) (Sullivan, 2023c) - Minerals mining: ENVS and human security (child/slave labor/health) issues (Sullivan, 2023; Davie, 2022) (ES; ENVS) |
- Cleaner energy transition: positively affects the country's ECS by building responsive capacity during the global continued drop in reliance on fossil fuels; creates jobs for citizens, but additional consumption taxes/electricity bills electricity / possible inflation may negatively affect the population. Overall, net positive effect on the economy (IRENA, 2023; WEC, 2022) (ECR, ECS) - Minerals mining: economic justice issues for suppliers' workforces but positive for Japan's ECR during energy transition (Sullivan, 2022) (ECS, ER) - Reduced spending on fossil fuels - positive externality (ETS, 2023) (ER, ECS) |
- Internal political resistance against nuclear energy restart after the 2011 Fukushima accident and geothermal exploration (WNA, Ozawa and Balmer, 2023) (PR, PS) - Cleaner energy transition: increased reliance on China regarding inputs for cleaner energy (critical minerals needed for solar, wind, electrolyzers, military microgrids) vs. MS (Bordoff & O'Sullivan; Sullivan, IEA, 2023 ) (MR, MS) - Maritime security issues: LNG/hydrogen/ammonia carriers, maritime transportation, ports "chokepoints" represent weak/risk points for these energy sources' supply chains (Hugo and Kusumavardhana; Sullivan, 2023) (MR, MS) |
Policy two: energy resilience
Table 3. Breakdown of policy proposal two
| Short-term (2023-2030) | Medium-term (2030-2050) | Long-term (2050 and beyond) |
|
- Accelerate RE (solar&wind) deployment to enhance electricity resilience (Esteban and Portugal-Pereira, 2014; Cong and Gomi, 2020) - Start building new interregional transmission infrastructure (Shiraishi et al., 2023) - Per 6th Strategic Energy Plan, implement the master plan in "push-type approach" to upgrade the cross-regional interconnection lines. The rules of use of power grids need to be reviewed so RE can use the bulk system preferentially to coal-fired power (METI, 2021) - Per 6th Strategic Energy Plan, reinforce measures for fallen trees, prepare against cyber attacks for new RE power suppliers and existing power suppliers (METI, 2021) - Clarify rules for development and connection of local transmission lines and cost-sharing for RE deployment, especially, for offshore wind (Obhoyashi, 2023) -Support and build necessary natural gas interconnection lines based on 2015 Gas Business Act (IEA, 2022) - Continue replacing low-pressure gas pipes with polyethylene pipes and high seismic-resistant pipes. Due to increasing uncertainties of frequent disasters, prepare effective preventative measures to become "anti-fragile" (IEAa, 2022; Sullivan, 2023f) - Start building micro-grids to enhance local resilience (SGE, 2022) - Test blockchain in energy distribution similar to KEPCO (Loseva et al., 2020) |
- Maintain RE (solar &wind) deployment to enhance electricity resilience (Esteban and Portugal-Pereira, 2014; Cong & Gomi, 2020) - Continue building interregional transmission infrastructure (Shiraishi et al., 2023) - Promote distributed grids, new types of resilience-oriented energy systems, which promote more community involvement, to complement fragmented and split Japan's electricity system (Ko et al., 2019; IEA, 2021) -Build smart and more digitalized grids to handle the large increases in electricity demand and accelerated RE roll-out, which place more demand on power grids (ETS, IEA; 2023c) - Stop building natural gas interconnection lines by 2040 to avoid "stranded assets" problem in the future (IEA, 2022a) - See "short-term" measures about the replacement of gas pipes |
- Maintain RE (solar & wind) deployment to enhance electricity resilience (Esteban and Portugal-Pereira, 2014) - Continue building interregional transmission infrastructure (Shiraishi et al., 2023) - Continue building smart and digitalized grids (ETS, 2023) |
| Costs | Benefits | |
|
- Large transmission infrastructure expenditures - several trillion yen (Shiraishi et al., 2023; NikkeiAsia, 2021) - Higher utility bills for consumers (NikkeiAsia, 2021, IRENA, 2023) |
- The incremental costs of RE deployment/battery storage and transmission infrastructure are smaller than fossil fuel, operation and maintenance, and fixed costs of current typical fossil-fuel fired plants (Shiraishi et al., 2023) - Preventative measures assist in making "anti-fragile" energy systems (Sullivan, 2023f) |
- The growth of smart grids that can better integrate with accelerated RE deployment can limit the scale of overall required grid build-out, reducing demand for copper and aluminum. Aluminium substitution, in place of copper, especially, in the overhead lines, can reduce copper demand (ETS, 2023). |
| Externalities connected to tradeoffs between: | ||
| Energy and environmental resilience and security | Economic resilience and security | Political-military resilience and security |
|
- Build-up of new transmission infrastructure and natural gas interconnection pipelines can negatively affect land, water, and food security but assist energy security (ES, ENVS) - Minerals mining (Copper and Aluminum): ENVS and human security (child/slave labor/health) issues (Sullivan, 2023e; Davie, 2022) (ER; ENVS) - Bad state or non-state actors might attack underwater infrastructure (Ture, n.d.). Climate-change effects on grids (Bordoff & O'Sullivan, 20230 (ES, ENVS) |
- New grid infrastructure projects can help electrification of mobility and other applications, the growth of companies. However, these projects will negatively affect the population with higher utility bills and possible inflation (IRENA, 2022) (ECR, ECS) - Minerals mining: economic justice issues for suppliers' workforces but positive for Japan's ECR during energy transition (Sullivan, 2022a) (ECS, ER) |
- Cleaner energy transition: increased reliance on China regarding inputs for cleaner energy (critical minerals needed for grid infrastructure and energy storage, military microgrids) vs. MS (Bordoff & O'Sullivan; Sullivan, IEA, 2023 ) (MR, MS) - Chance of future minerals conflict due to tensions/pressures due to mineral extraction (Sullivan, 2022a; IIEJ, Bingotto et al., 2023) (MR, MS) |
Policy three: energy reliability
Table 4. Breakdown of policy proposal four
| Short-term (2023-2030) | Medium-term (2030-2050) | Long-term (2050 and beyond) |
|
- Modernize the existing power grids, install extra high voltage underground transmission cables (DOE, 2023b; IEA, 2021) - Retain natural gas power plants to balance seasonal and cross-day variations against solar and wind generation (Shiraishi et al., 2023) - Nuclear power restart and support (see Policy 1) to have a reliable and efficient low-carbon energy source that can help fight the climate crisis (A&J, 2017) - Ensure stable LNG supply (Policy 1) to avoid instability in electricity supply (IIEJ, 2023) - Start building smart and more digitilized grids to better match supply and demand of electricity in real time to assure grid reliability (ETS, IEA; 2023) - Implement cyber& physical security measures - Begin energy storage integration (batteries; pumped hydro with 21,894MW capacity) alongside RE deployment to support Policy 1 (Shiraishi et al., 2023; Pescia, 2019; IRENA, 2020) - Start building micro-grids in communities, similar to the one in Mutzugaw, to support local energy reliability efforts (JapanGov, 2021) |
- Continue modernizing the electric grids - Retain natural gas plants and slowly replace them with other reliable baseload power sources, such as nuclear (IIEJ, 2023) - See Policy 1 (nuclear power policy actions) - Ensure stable LNG supply (Policy 1) to avoid instability in electricity supply (IIEJ, 2023); however, in 2040s start relying more on nuclear power and RE (solar,wind,geothermal) - Implement cyber& physical security measures - Deploy energy storage (especially, batteries, pumped hydro, and hydrogen) along RE to support Policy 1 (Shiraishi et al., Sullivan, 2023; Wakeyama, 2018; McIlwaine et al., 2019) |
- Continue modernizing the electric grids - Rely on nuclear energy as the main reliable zero-emission baseload power source (IIEJ, 2023). - See Policy 1 (nuclear power policy actions)
- Implement cyber& physical security measures - Deploy and modernize energy storage technologies |
| Costs | Benefits |
|
|
- Large new transmission infrastructure expenditures: several trillion yen (Shiraishi et al., 2023; NikkeiAsia, 2021) - Modernization of aging infrastructure is expensive (Akiyama, 2022) - Higher utility bills for consumers (NikkeiAsia, 2021; IRENA, 2023) - Energy reliability may suffer if supply/demand is mismatched during RE integration with inadequate energy storage (Wakeyama, 2018) or climate change effects become more unpredictable (DOE, 2023) |
- The incremental costs of RE deployment/battery storage and transmission infrastructure are smaller than fossil fuel, operation and maintenance, and fixed costs of current typical fossil-fuel fired plants (Shiraishi et al., 2023) - The government's support for RE integration with battery storage through FIP (feed-in-premium) scheme and BECC subsidies can help energy reliability policy (RP, 2022) |
-Installing battery storage helps reduce the cost of grid upgrades and wasting clean generation (RP, 2022) |
|
Externalities connected to tradeoffs between: |
||
| Energy and environmental resilience and security | Economic resilience and security | Political-military resilience and security |
|
- Build-up of new transmission infrastructure and natural gas interconnection pipelines can negatively affect land, water, and food security but assist energy security (ES, ENVS). - Minerals mining (Copper and Aluminum): ENVS and human security (child/slave labor/health) issues (Sullivan, 2023e; Davie, 2022) (ER; ENVS). - Bad state or non-state actors might attack underwater infrastructure (Ture, n.d.). Climate-change effects on grids (Bordoff & O'Sullivan, 20230 (ES, ENVS) |
- New grid infrastructure projects can help electrification of mobility and other applications, the growth of companies. However, these projects will negatively affect the population with higher utility bills and possible inflation (IRENA, 2022) (ECR, ECS) - Minerals mining: economic justice issues for suppliers' workforces but positive for Japan's ECR during energy transition (Sullivan, 2022a) (ECS, ER) |
- Cleaner energy transition: increased reliance on China regarding inputs for cleaner energy (critical minerals needed for grid infrastructure and energy storage, military microgrids) vs. MS (Bordoff & O'Sullivan; Sullivan, IEA, 2023 ) (MR, MS) - Chance of future minerals conflict due to tensions/pressures due to mineral extraction (Sullivan, 2022a; IIEJ, Bingotto et al., 2023) (MR, MS) |
Policy four: environmental security, resilience, and reliability
Table 4. Breakdown of policy proposal five
| Short-term (2023-2030) | Medium-term (2030-2050) | Long-term (2050 and beyond) |
|
Environmental security Climate change / Environmental risks - Create/amend policy tools for reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) through the change in energy systems (low/zero carbon energy solutions) & better energy demand and supply management (Policy 1). Water/food security - Japan is assumed to have frequent occurence of the decrease in snowfall, extremely low rainfall, and earlier thaw; thus, it should promote "Sound Hydrological Cycles;" conserve groundwater; reuse waste water (recycle waste water and use rainwater); redevelop existing dams for better water storage and reallocation of water supply (MLITT, 2008). - Increase awareness about water footprints and virtual water trades to improve water security (Sullivan, 2021) Environmental resilience Environmental reliability -Promote adaptation collaboration initiatives (public/private) for disaster risks (Mavrodieva and Shaw, 2020) |
Environmental security Climate change / environmental risks - Continue GHG reduction through the change in energy systems (low/zero carbon energy solutions) & better energy demand and supply management (Policy 1) to reach net-zero in 2050 and beyond. Water/food security - Use and apply "Sound Hydrological Cycles" (to secure safe and tasty water, maintain river flow at ordinary times; mitigate the heat island phenonomen; alleviate damage by water water; avoid of urban flow damage) and additional policy "short-term" policy measures (MLITT, 2008). - Apply the "short-term" policy concepts in the water security policies - Use advanced air cooling technologies to reduce water consumption and operating costs (Sullivan, 2023d) Environmental resilience - Apply regenerative farming & agriculture Environmental reliability - Continue investing in initiatves and workforce - Same policy |
Environmental security Climate change / environmental risks - Continue CO2 reduction through the change in energy systems (low/zero carbon energy solutions) & better energy demand and supply management (Policy 1) to reach net-zero in 2050 and beyond. Water/food security - Same as in the "medium-term" - Apply the "short-term "concepts in the water security policies Environmental resilience - Apply regenerative farming & agriculture Environmental reliability - Continue investing in initiatives and workforce - Same policy |
| Costs | Benefits |
|
|
- At the beginning, it might be potentially costly to set up multiple circular economies. However, it helps that Japan already promotes a strong culture of conservation (Tamaki and Nada, 2023) - However, the population might resist some drastic changes in farming, agriculture, behavioral changes in consumption, which might negatively affect environmental security (water & food) |
- Circular economies can significantly reduce resource use; extend product cycle use, and help don’t waste the waste (Sullivan, 2022) - Circular economies can also assist in reducing the social and environmental costs of renewables and nuclear with the associated lifecycles & supply chains (Sullivan, 2022b). - New awareness initiatives (water footprints & virtual water trades, regenerative farming & agriculture) can help water/food security efforts - Overall, combined environmental security, resilience, and reliability policies can have multiple positive externalities related to poverty alleviation, sustainable development, and associated development objectives. |
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Externalities connected to tradeoffs between: |
||
| Energy and environmental resilience and security | Economic resilience and security | Political-military resilience and security |
|
- The emphasis on LNG in the short-term (GHG increase) might clash with environmental security objectives (ES; ENVS) - Energy production uses a lot of water for both of its forms: electricity and transportation fuels. Hydrogen and nuclear power need lots of water (Sullivan, 2023c) (ES, ENVS) - Construction of new transmission infrastructure/natural gas pipelines, build-up of floating solar in lakes (EPRS, 2021) might interfere with regenerative agriculture, farming, water security (ER, ENVR, ENVS) |
- Cleaner energy transition: positively affects the country's ECS by building responsive capacity during the global continued drop in reliance on fossil fuels; creates jobs for citizens, but additional consumption taxes/electricity bills electricity/possible inflation may negatively affect the population. Overall, net positive effect on economy (IRENA, 2023; WEC, 2022) (ECR, ECS) - Reduced spending on fossil fuels (coal, and in the longer-term, natural gas and oil): positive externality (ETS, 2023) (ER, ECS) - Additional spending on redesign of existing water dams may increase taxes, which will negatively affect the population (ECR, ECS) |
- Internal political resistance against nuclear energy restart after the 2011's Fukushima accident and geothermal exploration (WNA, Ozawa and Balmer, 2023) (PR, PS) - Cleaner energy transition: increased reliance on China regarding inputs for cleaner energy (critical minerals needed for solar, wind, electrolyzers, military microgrids) vs. MS (Bordoff & O'Sullivan; IEA, 2023; Sullivan, 2023f ) (MR, MS) - Chance of future minerals conflict due to tensions/pressures due to mineral extraction (Sullivan, 2022f; IIEJ, Bingotto et al., 2023) (MR, MS) |
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