Make money not war: Trump’s real plan for peace in Ukraine

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illuminem summarises for you the essential news of the day. Read the full piece on The Wall Street Journal or enjoy below:

🗞️ Driving the news: A group of influential American and Russian businessmen met in Miami Beach to chart an economic plan aimed at ending Russia’s war in Ukraine — one that would reopen Russia’s $2 trillion economy to U.S. companies ahead of European rivals
• According to people familiar with the talks, the Kremlin has promoted this “peace through business” framework to the Trump administration, and both the president and his envoy have signalled openness to the idea

🔭 The context: With the conflict stalled and sanctions weighing on Russia, Moscow is seeking alternative pathways to regain international economic access
• President Trump has long argued that economic incentives can achieve strategic outcomes where diplomacy has stalled, diverging from Europe’s insistence on maintaining strict sanctions and Ukrainian territorial conditions
• European governments fear Washington may sidestep them, creating a settlement that prioritizes U.S. business interests over collective security

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: A settlement built around commercial reintegration could significantly reshape global energy markets
• Renewed U.S. access to Russian oil, gas and mineral sectors risks expanding fossil fuel output at a time when global climate targets require steep reductions
• Conversely, a settlement that channels investment toward cleaner technologies or infrastructure modernization could steer Russian heavy industries—among the world’s highest emitters—toward lower-carbon pathways
• The environmental outcome hinges on the types of investments permitted in any agreement

⏭️ What's next: Trump’s advisers are expected to refine the proposal in coming months, testing reactions from Kyiv, Brussels and key NATO allies
• Ukraine is likely to resist concessions that freeze Russian territorial gains, while Europe prepares diplomatic pushback to preserve sanctions leverage
• A formal outline could emerge ahead of the 2026 U.S. midterms, positioning economic engagement as a signature foreign-policy initiative

💬 One quote: “They were charting a path to bring Russia’s economy in from the cold—with American businesses first in line,” said a source familiar with the talks

📈 One stat: Russia’s wartime economy—worth $2 trillion—remains under sanctions affecting over 40% of its international trade

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