After Melissa, the Caribbean cannot afford to trust a quiet forecast

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be remembered in the Caribbean for Hurricane Melissa. The 2026 hurricane season started on June 1, and it is worth sitting with what that storm actually cost us. Assessing the dollars and the exposed gaps will show how prepared the region needs to be.

Hurricane Melissa: a reckoning

According to NOAA, Melissa made direct landfall on Jamaica's south coast on October 28, 2025, with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph. Soon after, the World Bank highlighted that the physical damage to Jamaica alone totalled US$8.8 billion, equivalent to 44% of the country's 2024 GDP. Coupled with that, World Vision indicated that at least 76 people lost their lives across the region, and UNICEF corroborated that an estimated 700,000 children were affected.

What distinguished Melissa from previous storms was both its intensity and speed, as the system escalated from moderate to Category 5 within a single day, leaving communities with almost no window to respond. Furthermore, this rapid intensification is expected to become more frequent as ocean temperatures rise.

According to the International Organisation for Migration, the clearest lesson from Melissa is that risk communication must be localised, practical, and grounded in how communities actually function. It is a finding that points toward solutions built around existing community infrastructure, inclusive of solar power, satellite connectivity, and messaging channels people already use, rather than systems that assume connectivity that disasters routinely destroy. STEM Spark Solutions is among the organisations developing such an approach for Jamaica, with a community pilot planned for the coming months.

The 2026 outlook

According to NOAA, the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is projected to be below normal. The forecast calls for 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. This is with a 70% confidence level and a 55% probability of a below-normal season. The primary driver is El Niño, which generates increased Atlantic wind shear that suppresses tropical development. Colorado State University's 2026 analysis supports this picture, drawing on El Niño years including 1997, 2009, and 2015, all of which produced below-average seasons. Additionally, AccuWeather independently projects 11 to 16 named storms.

A quieter forecast is not a safe one

Every credible forecaster has issued the same caution this season: that below normal is not the same as low risk. According to NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs, Category 5 storms have made landfall in the past during below-average seasons.

The Pan American Health Organisation has made clear that a quieter forecast offers no guarantee of safety. Hurricane Melissa has shown that even one severe storm is enough to overwhelm systems and cost lives across the region. PAHO's Emergency Operations Unit has emphasised that extreme weather events are not a periodic threat to the Americas but a permanent one, and that health systems must be prepared before a storm forms, not after it makes landfall.

The 2026 season is underway, and while El Niño may well suppress Atlantic activity overall, the Caribbean cannot afford to be reassured by basin-wide statistics. Preparation must always exceed the forecast.

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