The DK effect is defined as a cognitive bias whereby people with low ability, expertise, or experience regarding a certain type of task or area of knowledge tend to overestimate their ability or knowledge

Kedar

I&rsquo;m currently reading &ldquo;Unsettled&rdquo; by Steven E. Kronin, and it started out with these words: 
<blockquote>
"How many times have you heard these words: humans have broken the earth&rsquo;s climate, rising temperatures, sea levels, melting ice-caps, heat waves, storms, droughts, floods, and wildfires are an ever-worsening scourge on the world. Greenhouse gas emissions are causing all of this. And unless they&rsquo;re eliminated promptly by radical changes to society and its energy systems, &ldquo;The Science&rdquo; says Earth is doomed."
</blockquote>
<img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/32e27119be4b3ece327faff3cd9a9af8a282e421.png?" alt="&ldquo;Unsettled&rdquo; by Steven E. Kronin" />
If you haven&rsquo;t read the <a href="https://www.amazon.de/Unsettled-Climate-Science-Doesn%C2%92t-Matters/dp/1950665798">book</a> already!
Most of us listen to and comprehend these words at a peripheral level, and believe them to be true because of course they are&hellip; we see them all around us; in our social media channels, long-form articles, online, news channels and even slowly in our films (I actually like Roland Emmerich). And why not? it&rsquo;s backed by &ldquo;the science&rdquo;!
And then we go about our normal lives anyways... occasionally trying to bring it up with our friends and colleagues, asking them for their opinions, but this has gone on to the next level; especially with global warming and the climate.
With all humility, I do not claim to be an expert here. Nor do I wish to disregard the opinions of any other person. But why is it that we hear everybody simultaneously shouting out the same statements, using the same words or echoing the same opinions? My guess: the Dunning&ndash;Kruger effect (DK effect).
<img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/1c60535ba4f20cac56179d2fc74bb2949bb84025.png?" alt="Dunning&ndash;Kruger effect" />
Image courtesy of <a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_Effect_01.svg">Wikimedia Commons</a>
The&nbsp;DK effect&nbsp;is defined as a&nbsp;cognitive bias&nbsp;whereby people with low&nbsp;ability, expertise, or experience regarding a certain type of task or area of knowledge tend to overestimate their ability or knowledge. Plainly explained, the less I know about the Lord of the Rings, the more confident I am in calling myself a &ldquo;<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tolkien_fandom">Tolkienist</a>&rdquo;.
<h2>The terrors of the Internet</h2>
Many of us consider the internet to be THE single most important achievement of the 21st century. But along with its many benefits, also came many banes. Everybody now has at their fingertips multiple sources to Google/quote/extract information from and this means that nobody needs to be an expert at any topic because everybody&rsquo;s an expert&hellip; they just need to carry their smartphones with.
<img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/b61851776afb3814a804609eb08520c14e580c5e.jpg?" alt="Terrors of the internet" />
Image courtesy of <a href="https://www.cartoonstock.com/directory/i/internet_diagnoses.asp">Cartoonstock</a>
The problem with this is a clouded mind due to an overload of information from a billion sources. An opinion piece, regardless of its source, has the ability to be spread around to a million people without much thought. The media chiming in does not make it easier for us.
This overload makes it seem like we know a lot in quite a short time, but in reality, we are now on the peak of &ldquo;mount stupid&rdquo;. And what&rsquo;s more, we then go on to &ldquo;share&rdquo; our new-found expertise with all of our connections. The chain grows longer.
This is already NOT fine when you are a normal Jack or Jill. But think about a lawmaker... with the ability to sway thousands of Jacks and Jills with his or her opinions, and the power to turn this opinion into laws that can push billions of dollars/euros/rupees one way or another based on a superficial article.
I&rsquo;m not saying that this is wrong. Surely we all follow voices and pages that we think are a source of truth, and we are bound to make some mistakes, but the least we owe to ourselves is for us to ask why and dig deeper instead of harping on someone&rsquo;s words!
<img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/6d60c0d265fbb01570b1b4f9abe00fe30c4c0b65.jpg?" alt="Cartoon on fake news" />
Image courtesy of <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/personality-type-as-well-as-politics-predicts-who-shares-fake-news/">Scientific American</a>
<h2>The case with CO2</h2>
I am definitely for the fact that climate change is a real phenomenon that has an impact on all of us. It must not be taken lightly and every chance to debate it must be brought up without prejudice. Although it must be acknowledged that the more you know about climate science, the better you can understand what is real and what is hype.
Take CO2 for example. All of us have heard somewhere that CO2 is the single largest source responsible for global warming. Then we look at this figure and our thoughts are further reinforced!
<img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/304b5d08b367926ab0b378dde24c81b252d9ed74.jpg?" alt="Graph on atmospheric carbon dioxide amounts and annual emissions" />Image courtesy <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide">NOAA</a>
But if you look at the actual percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere&hellip;
<img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/e4695a937bad2a8537a3155bab69eecd0b9ac470.png?" alt="Pie charts on actual percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere" />
Image courtesy <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2915/the-atmosphere-getting-a-handle-on-carbon-dioxide/">NASA</a>
It&rsquo;s these 0.04% of these gases (including water vapor and 400ppm of CO2), that are responsible for intercepting the heat emitted from the earth&rsquo;s surface. In 1750, with 280ppm of CO2, the intercepted heat was 82.1%. In 2020, with 400ppm it was 82.7%. And even if the CO2 in the atmosphere increased to 560ppm, the heat retention in the atmosphere would rise to 83.1%. This means that the impact of CO2 is logarithmic instead of linear i.e., the higher its concentration, the lesser the increase in the magnitude of its contribution to global warming.
Even if CO2 content in the air were to double (800ppm), it wouldn&rsquo;t make much of a difference today. 
<img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/71315f95f8a657a82a267cb6ce58664b83710acf.png?" alt="Impact if CO2 content were to double (800ppm)" />
Source: <a style="font-family: Inter, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol', serif;" href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03098.pdf">https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03098.pdf</a>
Does this mean that we can continue emitting CO2 endlessly? Absolutely not! it is confirmed that man-made CO2 is directly contributing to a warming influence on the planet. However, there are a ton of other factors to also consider. All put together, human-related emissions account for about 1% of the energy radiated from the earth and intercepted by the atmosphere, although we always shine the spotlight on CO2 when speaking about global warming.
<img src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/74f56b98b6fbb43645a734cdf7244d1dc597c3d8.png?" alt="Carbon dioxide and global warming" />
Image courtesy of <a href="https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%201-d&amp;q=%2Fm%2F01s7k,%2Fg%2F11ksgqqmy&amp;hl=en">Google Trends</a>
<h2>So what can we do?</h2>
Fret not! The DK effect is after all a bias, ergo it is rectifiable. We already have all the tools we need to get more clarity. For one; see the Internet for what it is: a filter to get information. Only depend on reliable numbers from institutes, governmental agencies, or think tanks. I try to use facts and not opinions because numbers have this uncanny value of being objective. Another thing to do is to get deep into the topic of interest.
It seems too stressful, but going through academia and literature for a topic actually helps one form stable reasoning and understanding. That&rsquo;s because they offer something that internet articles don&rsquo;t: the complete context. Sure, the scientists and professors who write them might also have their own hidden beliefs and opinions unintentionally put on paper. But it helps us accumulate different viewpoints. There&rsquo;s always more than one way of looking at a thing and that&rsquo;s what helps.
You&rsquo;ll know that you&rsquo;ve crossed over from the initial overconfident level to a pure thirst for more data; when you start inquiring about information from sources apart from the internet. Experts with decades of experience usually have a ton of experience based on practically learned and lived events. And boy does listening (for a change) help.
Ultimately you are entitled to your opinion(s), no matter how good or bad they may be. But do know that everyone has a zone of influence, and how you choose to influence the ones near you goes a long way in shaping your contributions to society.
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Future Thought Leaders is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of rising Sustainability &amp; Energy writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.
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The Dunning Kruger effect and climate change

They’re everywhere! Whether you’re on your way to do some grocery shopping or are visiting a friend living a couple of kilometers away from you; there’s no missing that single/ group of scooters standing parked in front of us.

They’re everywhere! Whether you’re on your way to do some grocery shopping or are visiting a friend living a couple of kilometers away from you; there’s no missing that single/ group of scooters standing parked in front of us. Brightly colored and easily accessible from a mobile app, e-Scooters have easily come to dominate our urban infrastructure and are becoming hands-down the preferred mode of transport to cover intra-city trips without the hassle of being stuck in traffic, having to buy a ticket or worse, walk. Plus, they’re electric (most presumably as they don’t belch plumes of smoke shooting out of tailpipes) and so, are completely climate friendly right…. right?
<img src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/5569d005cf7cbb1b50ccf244f92cf0ede51df617.png" alt="Figure 1: Scooter going down the street. Courtesy Pexels GmBH.">
<h1>First…some context</h1>
In the United States, micromobility refers to vehicles with a mass of no more than 350 kg and a design speed of no more than 45 km/h. The global micromobility market revenue was estimated to have a total size of over 2.55 billion USD in 2019. And despite a minor blip during the pandemic years, it is expected to grow massively as the energy transition seeks to give electric mobility a boost. In Europe alone the market for shared e-scooter services is expected to reach at least 12 billion USD by 2025 [3].
<img src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/c0f5deda5e49fb49735337f4a55188631e12b466.png" alt="Figure 2: Different types of electronic vehicles. pic courtesy U.S. Department of Transportation. ">
<h1>For the greater good</h1>
<img src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/babf71c9591b2b4829da3f3a38a251c16914e5a9.png" alt="Figure 3: Electronic Scooter side by side a motorcycle, pic courtesy Pexels GmBH.">
And why shouldn’t e-scooters be promoted? It is visible that the increasing use of private transport has had multiple effects on the urban space (in terms of parking lots, streets and mile-long traffic) and its livability, thus presenting the account of its unsustainability. Moving and parked cars occupy valuable urban spaces useful for citizens and it is moreover made worse by their greater impact on the urban environment. According to recent surveys by the Max-Planck Institute, up to 26% of Covid-19 deaths were due to air pollution. And so, it clearly makes sense for us to switch to greener and more efficient transport modes. Enter the electric-powered micro–Personal Mobility Vehicles (specifically, the humble e-scooter).
<h1>The Devil is in the details</h1>
In a survey taken from 90 studies from over 100 countries between 2014 and 2020, it was found that E-scooters were considered an attractive transportation mode for the feeling of freedom and fun and for reducing trip time. Firms like Lime and Bird enabled 86 million trips on e-scooters across the U.S in 2019 alone [4]. More importantly however, it appeared that e-scooters would replace walking and cycling without reducing the use of private cars for short trips [5]. This is what we DON’T want them to replace.
<img src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/985dba8dd7a7c1c7b11e8565f12668775c8cf359.png" alt="Figure 4: Emissions comparison of different transport [2].">
Although seen as a godsend for our last-mile problem which is increasingly affecting traffic and pollution in cities, e-scooters are a worse solution in comparison to even public (diesel) buses when it comes to stopping global warming. A 2019 study conducted in North Carolina, USA, shows that over their entire lifecycle e-scooters produce more than 5 and 1.5 times more grams of CO2 per passenger kilometer driven in comparison to e-bikes and e-mopeds respectively [2]. And even though they produce half the emissions than a car, only 34% of e-scooter trips replace a journey that would have otherwise made by car. In comparison, more than 50% of e-scooter trips were found to replace walking and 11% replacing bus rides. Not exactly green, is it? Because the scooters’ additional emissions are greater than any gains made from car journeys not taken, the study concludes that e-scooter rental programs add to transport emissions overall. What’s more? a 2022 study conducted in Aachen, Germany was able to correlate an ambivalent relationship between micromobility and public transport i.e. micromobility competes with public transportation as trips are often faster; however, in areas or times with low public transit service coverage, micromobility also largely complements it [6]. A ray of sunshine is that e-scooters might actually fare better if implemented in rural areas, where car ownership is high because public transit is not well developed.
<h1>Where do we go from here?</h1>
<img src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/07dde0605ef1280dc0d7a9a75324f62df4ae4eb5.png" alt="Figure 5: Person holding an e-scooter waiting for a tramway. Picture courtesy Westend61">
By now, it must be as clear as day that any new form of transport is neither going to be emission free, nor is it going to make up for the decades of emissions that we’ve already spewed out. What we must now focus upon is making sure that we collectively emit lesser than we’ve done before. This means that we have to think of e-scooters and e-bikes as ancillary means that fill in the gaps in the existing network. We have to think “Intermodal”.
<img src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/1f85b2a8cde761a6e3ca3195be13dad381227ac1.png" alt="Figure 6: a drawing showcasing the impact of these modes of transport as a form of climate action. Institute for Transportation & Development Policy.">
Intermodality enables a user to make use of different modes of transport as parts of the same journey. With the growing availability of shared mobility such as car sharing and scooter rentals, companies seek to increasingly fill in the gaps in our transport system. All to get from A to B in a quick and comfortable manner (with the bonus of lesser emissions per person!). This rise of the Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) ecosystem has the potential to create a new and open business model. One where an organization does not only use its own solutions but also uses ideas from its external environment to solve our mobility and environmental issues simultaneously.
Future Thought Leaders is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of rising Energy &amp; Sustainability writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.
<h3>References:</h3>
<a href="https://www.wired.com/story/e-scooter-rentals-carbon-emissions/">1. https://www.wired.com/story/e-scooter-rentals-carbon-emissions/</a>​ 
<a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2da8">2. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2da8</a>​ 
<a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1022246/estimated-global-shared-e-scooter-market-size-by-region/">3. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1022246/estimated-global-shared-e-scooter-market-size-by-region/</a>​ 
<a href="https://nacto.org/2020/08/27/136-million-trips-taken-on-shared-bikes-and-scooters-across-the-u-s-in-2019/">4. https://nacto.org/2020/08/27/136-million-trips-taken-on-shared-bikes-and-scooters-across-the-u-s-in-2019/</a>​ 
<a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/7/3692/htm">5. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/7/3692/htm</a>​ 
<a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/14/8247/htm">6. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/14/8247/htm</a>​

e-SCO2ers - How the urban mobility revolution is adding to our emissions woes?

Despite its promise of offering low-carbon energy at a stable generation rate, nuclear energy’s bad reputation precedes it in many countries. While overall public support in favor of using nuclear energy to combat climate change is high, more than a quarter of Europeans and Americans still oppose it. 

Despite its promise of offering low-carbon energy at a stable generation rate, nuclear energy’s bad reputation precedes it in many countries. While overall public support in favor of using nuclear energy to combat climate change is high, more than a <a href="https://www.ans.org/news/article-2974/support-for-nuclear-energy-grows-with-climate-change-concerns/">quarter</a> of Europeans and Americans still oppose it. Regardless of the aftermath of disasters such as Chernobyl and Fukushima, nuclear power capacity is set to grow in the coming decades, especially in Asia.
<img src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/7a72458149865fc444c57ffbc4b305d60bef7b31.png" alt="Figure 1: Nuclear energy generation in the world (1985-2020).
https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/IMG/pdf/wnisr2021-lr.pdf">
the <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2021">IEA&#x27;s</a>, in its annual World Energy Outlook report states an installed nuclear capacity growth of over 26% from 2020 to 2050 (reaching about 525 GWe). More <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/nuclear-power-in-a-clean-energy-system">importantly</a>, it estimates that a significant investment in existing and new nuclear power plants is necessary for us to effectively transition away from coal and gas and maintain our emissions reduction trajectories. For this to happen, nuclear has to sort of, be reborn and seen under a new light under different perspectives. 
Safety, hazardous waste concerns, building/ deployment time and plant size are the main factors that hinder nuclear expansion. These factors and their solutions will be tackled in this article which unlike its name will focus on both fission as well as fusion-based technologies. Hope is, that a new generation of startups promise an upgraded type of reactor (and ancillary technologies). One that is smaller, cheaper, and faster to design; but is still very much safe, reliable, and easier to deploy anywhere than their predecessors.
<h1>Small Modular Reactor (SMR)</h1>
<img src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/5873fee186d083834bcf44b298ccef5ce2d20502.png" alt="Figure 2: SMR from USA based firm NuScale.
https://solartribune.com/small-modular-reactors-launching-in-2018/">
Small modular reactors (SMRs) are nuclear fission reactors that are smaller than conventional nuclear reactors and typically have an electrical power output of less than <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_modular_reactor">300 MWe</a>. Due to their compact size (&lt; 50 tons), they can be transported around conveniently and can be installed anywhere on/ off grid. Another aspect is scalability where reactors can be added together to amplify the power output manyfold. The idea here is for these SMRs to be flexible, and act as a “load-follow” to renewables. This keeps an electrical grid balanced as renewables like sun and wind rise and fall, and demand varies. Their modular nature implies that they are also less expensive. A major factor that separates a SMR with conventional nuclear power plants is that their cores are much smaller, and they have fewer moving parts. They also have safety features including automatic shut-off and indefinite cooling without the need for water.
<h1>Fully Ceramic Micro-encapsulated (FCM) Fuel</h1>
<img src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/6d8a23eefe8cb86521f2222523939a091f737155.png" alt="Figure 3: Fully Ceramic Micro-encapsulated Fuel.
https://usnc.com/ultra-safe-nuclear-opens-salt-lake-city-facility-to-support-development-of-fully-ceramic-micro-encapsulated-fuel/">
It isn’t sufficient to make the reactor safe though. That’s where FCM fuel comes in. The idea is to coat the core fuel (uranium) kernel with multiple layers of fission products (TRISO particle fuel) and encase this within a fully dense silicon carbide (SiC) matrix instead of a graphite matrix that current TRISO based fuels use. This ensures high mechanical and chemical stability during irradiation and temperature changes. The higher-thermal conductivity of FCM fuel makes it extremely rugged and stable across a wide range of temperatures, while the SiC prevents the escape of fission products even if a TRISO particle should rupture during operation.
<h1>Stable Salt Reactor (SSR)</h1>
<img src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/dfa993d9af4650bc8b30cd393d5a8dd24a4787c5.png" alt="Figure 4: Stable Salt Reactor - Component Diagram.
https://www.neimagazine.com/features/featurethe-waste-burning-stable-salt-reactor-9563796/featurethe-waste-burning-stable-salt-reactor-9563796-558225.html">
Designed and developed by Moltex Energy, the SSR is effectively an SMR that operates on nuclear waste. Using molten salt rather than water for fueling and cooling, this allows radioactive gases to be absorbed by solidifying the salt in case of an emergency thus preventing a meltdown. The capital cost of the stable salt reactor is estimated at $1,950/kW. For comparison, the capital of large-scale nuclear is $5,500/kW.
<h1>The Microreactor</h1>
<img src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/5a9f93b0a4585fa0a8ad1b7c88a4aecdb93e9f1c.png" alt="Figure 5 Radiant 1MW Microreactor.
https://www.radiantnuclear.com/">
Built to be both reliable and economical, the portable microreactor developed by <a href="https://www.radiantnuclear.com/">Radiant Nuclear </a>offers a peek into the future of truly decentralized microgrids. Each one of these units can deliver over 1 MegaWatt of electricity and can operate for up to 8 years. They can fit into your average shipping container and provide enough power to support over 1,000 homes per unit. Due to its high portability and quick deploy ability, remote communities and disaster areas are key use cases for such reactors.
<h1>The Orbitron</h1>
<img src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/f3f450cad5ba34d7f6ccc010eb55558a23b843b7.png" alt="Figure 6: The Orbitron powerpack.
https://www.avalanche.energy/">
Nuclear fusion is generally thought of as expensive and expansive; A fusion reactor needs large lasers or magnets to convert hydrogen to plasma under million-degree temperatures. Also, not to forget plenty of personnel. In sharp contrast, <a href="https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/nuclear/this-tiny-fusion-reactor-is-made-out-of-commercially-available-parts">Avalanche Energy</a>’s small-scale modular approach seems to mimic Tesla’s approach with batteries. It comprises of hundreds of little reactors called orbitrons; each of which employ electrostatic fields to trap fusion ions, while also employing a magnetron to reach higher ion densities. The resulting fusion reaction produces neutrons that can be transformed into heat. Measuring just approximately 5 inches in diameter (not larger than a fire extinguisher), a single orbitron can produce 5 to 15 kilowatts of power. Historically, a fusion experiment took years, if not decades, and billions of dollars to set up, but with the orbitron real-world experiments could be run a few times per week on single-digit millions of dollars.
<h1>All is not hunky dory though..</h1>
The major obstacle for SMRs comes in the form of radioactive waste. Due to their smaller size: power ratio, the SMR designs produce not less, but potentially <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2111833119">much more waste</a>: more than five times the spent fuel per unit of power, and as much as 35 times for other forms of waste. Other problems include neutron leakage that makes waste decommissioning much more precarious. Figuring out long term storage and the potential recycling of spent nuclear fuel is of paramount importance for the future of SMR technology.
<img src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/cfa102fc907eac37bf74ab44ab8f34e5a46372fe.png" alt="Figure 7: Table Comparison of key parameters between different energy technologies (Key: Green- Good, Yellow-Average, Red-Below Average)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source
https://whatisnuclear.com/energy-density.html">
<h1>Conclusion</h1>
Although the sun itself is some 90 million miles away from us, we are getting quite good at mimicking this marvel of energy. The commercial nuclear (fusion) market is expected to boom in the upcoming years. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that if $1 trillion of the $9.5 trillion in global renewables investment planned over the next 20 years, is invested in fusion projects, it could deliver electricity to the grid by as early as <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/nuclear-fusion-market-could-achieve-a-40-trillion-valuation/">2030</a>. There are at least 35 companies working on fusion worldwide, and investments in these stood at more than $ 30 billion as of <a href="https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2021/06/24/the-race-to-build-a-commercial-fusion-reactor-hots-up">2021</a>. Small modular reactors will be an exciting next step in commoditizing energy for the common man. Good things do indeed come in small packages.
Future Thought Leaders is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of rising Energy &amp; Sustainability writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.

Pocket Fusion a Calming Answer To Nuclear uncertainty

Intermittent renewables? Lack of energy storage? Where do we expect to source extra energy in times of high demand after we have done away with fossils? A possible answer: Why not build a super-grid?

Intermittent renewables? Lack of energy storage? Where do we expect to source extra energy in times of high demand after we have done away with fossils? A possible answer: Why not build a super-grid?
<a href="https://viking-link.com/">The Viking Link</a>, developed by Energinet and the British National Grid is a planned 760 km long electricity interconnector between Denmark and the UK (Launch date: 12/2023). Majorly being built in the North Sea, it will involve the construction of converter sites and installation of onshore and offshore cable in each country. These are then connected to the substations in the respective countries.
<img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/c3e41a8a17df005ae9786fb7421950ca907dec3e.png" alt="Figure 1: Viking Link interconnector; jointly developed by National Grid Ventures (Great Britain) and Energinet (Denmark)." />
Interconnectors are <a href="https://www.offshore-energy.biz/siemens-converter-stations-for-viking-link-interconnector/">high voltage DC (HVDC)</a> cables that allow for 2 or more countries to link their electricity systems. They can run under the sea, underground or via overhead cabling unlike natural gas, which is exclusively shared via pipelines or ship. Their main purpose is to move surplus renewable electricity between asynchronous AC transmission systems from where it&rsquo;s produced to where it&rsquo;s needed most, thus creating a cross-border interconnected grid of sorts. HVDC also allows transfer of power between grid systems running at different frequencies with minimal losses and increased stability, thus enabling power transfer between incompatible networks.
<img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/0bdd2cdb9285e49de030bef481367f5d481bed77.png" alt="Figure 2: Subsea interconnectors: a remarkable feat of engineering." />
Here are a couple of benefits that play into investing in interconnected grids, as opposed to everyone hoarding their own energy:
<ul>
<li>Sharing power: This ensures that more countries invest into renewables without the fear of facing blackouts and rising electricity prices.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Make Money from excess energy production: better possibilities for cross-border electricity trading will contribute to lower wholesale prices for electricity.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Ensure there's enough energy in circulation: This ensures the energy security of all the nations involved.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Bi-directional power flow: Unlike gas pipes, interconnectors allow for energy transfer on an ad-hoc basis from countries with excess generation to those with excess demand.</li>
</ul>
Pursuant to this idea, lies the concept of a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_super_grid">European super grid</a>, a blanket term to define a series of projects taking place in Europe and beyond. It is a possible future super grid that would ultimately interconnect the various European countries and the regions around Europe's borders, such as North Africa and the Middle East. The Super Grid seeks to both improve existing energy interconnectors and <a href="https://www.europeanwaves.com/on-the-continent/the-european-super-grid-a-solution-to-the-eus-energy-problems/">create</a> new ones, thus increasing the capacity and quality of power transmission among countries. A super-grid also acts as a large pool, allowing for efficient sharing of power plants and wider use of renewable energies. For example, France which has a large installed capacity of nuclear power (which however is expensive to build) could export its surplus via the interconnectors being built between the countries of Central Europe (cross-border exports already exist). Renewables, and wind resources installed in most European countries can be utilized much more efficiently, as "it is always windy somewhere" &ndash; it tends to be windy in the summer in North Africa, and windy in the winter in Europe!
<img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/e3cfa4bae78a814af66ab61d7a426976b8cae83c.png" alt="Figure 3: Distributing Power: A transition to a civic energy future (https://www.researchgate.net/figure/A-European-supergrid-Nature-2010_fig3_320297294)." />
The European super grid also plays a vital role as a part of the EU hoping to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 and is one of the pillars of <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal_en">the European Green Deal legislation</a>. The European Commission aims to achieve 15% of interconnection by 2030. The means that by then each country should possess the appropriate infrastructure to export at least 15% of the electricity produced by its power plants. The super grid also takes into consideration, the disparity between countries in terms energy mix and allows each member to specialize in the types of energy production they find most <a href="https://www.eyes-on-europe.eu/the-european-super-grid-a-solution-to-the-eus-energy-problems/">fruitful.</a>​
<img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/629e12af2e5283d4051421a7b0d6522aee337ad0.png" alt="Figure 4: map of the Supergrid that could and will supply all of Europe&rsquo;s electricity(https://supernode.energy/news/the-politics-of-the-pan-european-supergrid/)." />
Elsewhere, other major economies are also planning similar megaprojects. The most well known of these is the <a href="https://isolaralliance.org/work/osowog/">&lsquo;Green Grids Initiative &ndash; One Sun One World One Grid&rsquo; (GGI-OSOWOG)</a> launched by India at COP26. Backed by 83 nations (the latest being Oman), this project aspires to lay the foundations for the world&rsquo;s first transnational solar power grid network, that will help manage global supply and demand by enabling need-based exchange of electricity between the <a href="https://isolaralliance.org/membership/countries">member </a>countries, which notably include Australia, France, Germany, Middle Eastern countries, Nigeria, and the UK. This expands the connectivity potential of the Indian grid, which is already connected with neighbor countries Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka. Under the GGI-OSOWOG initiative, the Indian grid can initially be connected to Africa (via Oman), which accounts for 40% of total global horizontal irradiance; but lacks the economic conditions for large scale installation of solar. With proper investment in the international power grid, the solar resources in Africa can be tapped easily, and based on the availability and requirement, power can be transferred to India. On the other hand, when Africa experiences low irradiance, power can be exported from India.
<img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/38d5469cb479179b9af29b4bccd06518d558605e.png" alt="Figure 5: Super grid global market and trends" />
Super grids aren&rsquo;t without their own flaws though! Apart from the regulatory and legal hurdles that are usually present while performing installations across international boundaries, investments into these projects can run into the millions, if not billions. Connecting millions of energy assets together is a daunting task and matching intercontinental demand with an equal amount of flexibility might just sound too ambitious. However, as is common with all facets of the energy transition, this might just be the solution that brings our world together for a common good.
Future Thought Leaders is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of rising Energy &amp; Sustainability writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.

Kedar Balasubramanian

Kedar Balasubramanian

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