Sweden has the world’s toughest climate target for the transport sector. What is it – and how is it going? 

Mattias Goldmann

Background: A small country sets its targets

After the Paris Agreement, Sweden needed to update its climate targets. A government-initiated commission was launched, formed by representatives for the seven out of the parliament’s eight parties that had shown an interest in climate issues. Their first task was to quantify Sweden’s share of global greenhouse gas emissions.

With 0.15 percent of global emissions, it would be easy to argue that what Sweden does, has little or no impact on the global climate. Even adding the impact of consumption – goods produced elsewhere but used in Sweden – the impact stays at 0.3 percent. However, the seven parties agreed that with such a small part of the global emissions, Sweden’s only way to be truly relevant in combating climate change would be as a role model for others; a permanent exhibition for climate friendly solutions or a global climate helpdesk.

The world’s most stringent climate target were thus approved by the Swedish Parliament in June 2016; net zero by 2045 which means at least an 85 percent emissions reduction in Sweden compared to 1990, with up to 15 percent reductions elsewhere, but financed by Sweden. Until 2030, emissions are to be reduced by 63 percent.

In the process leading up to the legislation, many sectorial targets were discussed; for the agricultural sector, forestry, education, the defense sector and many other part of the Swedish economy. However, the Parliamentarians agreed that sectorial targets reduce the liberty of how to reach the overarching targets, thus increasing the cost or reducing the ambitions. Thus, the 

 only has one sectorial target; a 70 percent emissions reduction between 2010 and 2030 in the transport sector – a “

Why did the Swedish Parliament agree on a transport target, when no other targets were approved?

, being a country with few people and long distances, transportation issues are central for policy measures.

, Sweden does not have any fossil fuels; a strong climate target for the transport sector was not lobbied against by Big Oil, Old Coal or Gas of the Past. Instead, Sweden has a surplus of electricity from fossil-free sources and a large production of renewable energy for the transport sector.

, Sweden is a country of transport heavyweights, with vehicle manufacturers such as Volvo the truck and bus manufacturer, (separately) Volvo the car maker and Scania, as well as new players such as Polestar and Einride, all seeing market opportunities with a target that makes the small home market a testing ground and a showcase for new solutions

, the target of a “fossil-independent transport sector” had already been proposed by a government commission in 2013, and a specific organization – the 

 – was launched to ensure that this target became law.

When climate targets are illustrated, it is often with a new electric car. This is even more so for Sweden’s transport target, often compared to neighboring Norway’s world-leading switch to new electric cars. In a direct comparison, Sweden is only a distant second in Europe – but the comparison is unfair, since the Swedish target is not only about electromobility, not only about cars, and not only about new vehicles. It’s about all ground transport – and the demanding target cannot be met by only going for one solution. Indeed, if you are ready to learn three words of Swedish, reaching the target is to de done roughly through three equal measures, three B’s:

: The vehicle – everything from the bicycle and car to bus, truck and train; increased efficiency, better usage of appropriate solutions.

: The fuel and electricity – all sustainable ways to power the vehicle, including electricity, e-fuels, biogas and sustainable renewable biofuels from waste and residues.

: The behavior – all ways to transport people and goods more efficiently, or to avoid transports by remote working and other e-solutions.

Sweden has a slow uptake of electric vehicles – compared to neighboring Norway. Compared to every other country in the world, Sweden is faster. In 2022, for new car-sales more customers went for chargeable than for petrol and diesel versions combined. And for the first time, fully electric vehicles outsold plug-in hybrids.

The main incentive has been the bonus-malus taxation system, in place since 2013. Inspired by the French system with the same name, the vehicles with emissions below a certain threshold, lowered at regular intervals, receive a bonus, while vehicles with high CO2 emissions pay a malus, with a second step for gas-guzzlers paying a “supermalus”. Vehicles with emissions around the neutral point neither receive bonus nor pay malus. The bonus is paid in full after six months of ownership, while the malus functions as an added tax during the first three years. After that, the annual vehicle tax is still CO2-based, giving an additional boost for low-emission vehicles.

The system was intended to be self-sustained, with the cost for bonuses being balanced by the added income from malus-taxation. In practice, this never happened since uptake of bonus-vehicles increased rapidly while sales of cars generating large malus-income quickly dwindled – the system became a victim of its own success. As of 1st January, 2023, the buyer of a passenger car, minivan or light truck considered to have zero emissions (fully electric and hydrogen) receive a € 5000 bonus, while vehicles powered by biogas and plug-in-hybrids with emissions of below 30 g CO2/km receive €1000. Vehicles with emissions of 75-125 g CO2/km pay a malus fee of €10/g of CO2, while emissions above 125 g are taxed with €12.5/g, and diesel-powered vehicles pay an additional €1.3 per gram of CO2/km. As examples, a Volvo XC90 with a petrol engine is taxed about €1500 annually, while the plug-in-hybrid version of the same car only pays the annual registration fee of €35, and the buyer of fully electric XC40 receives a €5000 bonus. The malus taxation is paid the first three years of the car’s life, whereafter the tax is still CO2-based but significantly lower. The bonus is only given to cars costing less than €65 000.

The taxation is a main reason why plug-in-cars represented 56 percent of all new car sales in 2022, with one third of all new cars being fully electric. That was way more than petrol cars (22 percent) or diesel (11.5 percent). The share of electric cars is lower than in neighboring Norway, but higher than anywhere else.

For light duty transport vehicles such as small trucks, minivans and pick-ups, the same rules apply and the same effect is seen on the market even though with a delay compared to the passenger cars. In 2022, the share of fully electric doubled, to 15 percent of the market. For heavy trucks, the market has only just started, with up to 60 ton trucks for long haul being launched by both established Swedish truck makers Scania and Volvo, and upstarts Einride and Volta. But both for “big” trucks and buses, in the near future, there is more of a market for vehicles powered by sustainable biofuels, particularly HVO biodiesel as well as both compressed and liquified biogas. The common denominator for these fuels is that they are made from waste, with a very low carbon footprint and no possibility of competing with the production of food or fodder

At the other end of the market, Sweden for a while had a bonus for e-bikes and electric mopeds, covering up to 25 percent of the purchase price. After two years and 89,346 users of the bonus, it was no longer deemed necessary, the market was established.

But remember that the Swedish target is for the whole transport sector, not just new vehicles. Since in Sweden, an average car is used about 18 years before it is scrapped, many gas guzzlers will still be around in 2030, putting the target in jeopardy if nothing is done – and a premium for scrapping them may not be cost-effective since many of these cars are not old clunkers. Thus the government in the 2021 state budget launched a bonus for retrofitting petrol cars so that they can instead run on ethanol or biogas. First due to a reshuffle of the government and then due to elections, this incentive has not materialized as yet, and meanwhile a movement converting classic combustion cars to electric drive has started, meaning that the final incentive may have a different design when and if launched.

In terms of vehicles (Bilen), when in doubt whether the sector can make the contribution necessary to meet the 2030-target, the shining example and inspiration is public transport. Its buses, trains and trams are now 95 percent fossil free – only a very few old buses still use fossil fuels. It can be done!

When the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, EPA, and the Swedish Energy Agency in early 2022 evaluated the government’s policies and financial incentives, they both independently came to the conclusion that the 2030 target could be met with existing instruments. The key reason for this was the fuel switch from fossil to renewable fuels, and the main instrument here is the reduction quota. This is an annual obligation to reduce the climate impact of petrol and diesel by a certain, increasing percentage compared to fully fossil fuels. By 2030, diesel is to have a 66 percent lower climate impact than fossil diesel, while the footprint of petrol is to be reduced by just above 30 percent.

The retailers can meet the quotas in any way they please, but in practice it is done by blending HVO (hydrated vegetable oils) and FAME (fatty-acid methyl ester) into the diesel, and ethanol into petrol. Since the quota is only to be met on a national basis, the companies can save money by not blending in renewable fuels in remote parts of the country and instead blending in more in the Stockholm region or around Gothenburg, a principal port for fuel imports. Since it only has to be met on an annual basis, companies can choose to blend more in the summer and not have to blend as much (or at all) during the coldest months. Especially HVO can be blended in any proportions, with no noticeable effect for the vehicle or the user.

Furthermore, Sweden for some years has the world’s quickest uptake of Flexifuel-passenger cars, able to use E85 with 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent petrol, or 100 percent petrol or anything in between. Still, more than a quarter of a million cars can use E85. Sweden also has the world’s largest fleet of biogas-powered cars; more than 50,000 run on 100 percent renewable CNG. Thousands of diesel cars, buses and trucks use HVO100, 100 percent renewable HVO diesel, or RME100 from rapeseed. The biofuels are tax exempt until 2027, recently prolonged four years by the EU-commission, meaning that while fossil fuel prices may be all over the place due to Russia’s war on Ukraine, biofuels have the possibility to offer more stable, predictable and competitive prices.

Approaching 2030, electricity will be the leading “fuel” of the vehicle sector. Already today, more than 5 percent of all vehicle usage is done with electricity, and for both passenger and goods trains, it is more than 95 percent. A commission has developed roadmaps that together with co-funding for charging infrastructure to ensure that there will be no white spots on the map; everywhere in Sweden one is to be able to charge electric cars, buses and trucks. The focal areas of government interventions are now in the Northern hinterlands, in residential areas, particularly for apartment dwellers, and for charging during loading and off-loading of goods. Furthermore, strategies are being developed to strengthen the business case for electric boats, ferries and ships as well as airplanes, with Swedish Heart Aerospace being at the forefront of developing an e-plane with 30 seats and the capacity to travel 200 km on electricity alone or more than double that in a plug-in-hybrid mode.

Sweden is a frontrunner of digital solutions, with companies such as Ericsson and its own Silicon valley, Kista, just north of Stockholm. This paired with long distances and perhaps a factor of unpleasant weather, means that there has early on been a strong uptake for “distance working”, with a large share of the workforce now working from home – or indeed anywhere but the office – one or two days a week, and more and more generation Z or “Generation Greta” demanding such solutions from their employees. For the 2030-target, this has a tremendously positive impact; the daily commute is the brunt of passenger car usage and the rush hour usage sees the highest emissions and fuel consumption.

The behavior switch runs deeper than just working from home. Long distances and a high degree of connectivity also means that e-commerce has taken on very strongly – but the immediate effect on the 2030-target was not as positive as it could be, since much goods delivery was done with little ride sharing, and much goods was offered with “free returns” as a sales pitch, increasing transports. Now, several initiatives between key actors in e-commerce mean that this is being addressed and e-commerce replacing everyone taking their own transport to the supermarket or malls can become a sustainable part of reaching the 2030-target.

Behavior changes also include shared mobility really picking up after several false starts. The Volvo on Demand is beyond traditional car sharing, while the Volvo-affiliated Lynk&Co lets people subscribe to a car and sublet it to others when not using it, significantly reducing the total need for cars and the cost of having access to cars. Micro-mobility has also taken off, with Swedish Voi alongside Tier being amongst the first and now globally leading in electric scooters for last mile-solutions. At first heavily criticized, with geofencing and other solutions, they now are more responsible partners of the cityscape. Especially in the north of Sweden, specific municipal initiatives to support winter biking have taken off, while in the very north the “kick” is used as a personalized mobility tool.

In June 2022, the parliament decided to support the switch to sustainable mobility by replacing the old travel deduction system, where one gets €1.7 per 10 km of car travel between the home and the workplace, with a system where you can deduct the same amount no matter which mode of travel you choose, of course meaning that you will pocket substantial amounts if you commute long distances by bike for work.

The new government: Target stands, measures deleted

On September 11th, Sweden held national elections and after intense negotiations a three-party, conservative minority government was installed, supported by the nationalistic Sweden Democrat which is the largest party in the coalition and the only of them to gain seats in the election.

Whilst the government parties adhere to the Swedish climate targets, the Sweden Democrats do not, and the coalition agreement and first budget mostly contain policy changes that make reaching the climate targets increasingly doubtful. In fact, the Swedish EPA states that with the new government’s policies, the 2030-target will not be met.

The most visible step in the wrong direction compared to the targets has been the promise to reduce the price of petrol and diesel for end-consumers, and the main way to do this according to the government is to reduce the reduction quota to EU’s minimum level, with a higher share of fossil fuels and very large emissions increases as a direct result. How this would reduce prices is far from clear; recently, prices of petrol and diesel in Sweden have mainly risen due to Russia’s war limiting oil supply, OPEC agreements further reducing it, and the Swedish currency losing in value.

Exactly how the reduction quota is to be reduced is as yet unknown; it is to take place from 2024-2026 and details have not yet been presented, including what is meant by the EU minimum level. The government previously quoted the 6 percent renewables from the EU Fuel Quality Directive, but this is no longer an active piece of EU legislation and the third Renewable Energy Directive (RED) which is being negotiated instead seems to demand 13-16 percent, though only from 2030 and potentially with no interim targets. The government also scrapped the bonus for new electric cars; only those that were bought before November 8th will get their bonus, though due to long waiting lists this will stretch all through 2023 and beyond. Furthermore, the government backtracked on the subsidies for work-related travel, so that the system now once again favors car usage over any other kind of transport.

For the 2030-secretariat, this means hard work. Whilst the secretariat emphasizes the aforementioned Bilen, Bränslet, Beteendet, it also acknowledges that the mix between the three can change over time. What cannot happen, however, is that ambitions are lowered across the board; if, for instance, subsidies for electric cars are abolished, more needs to be done in another area, such as improving incentives for cycling. The secretariat is now busy rewriting its plan to reach the target, based on the new government’s priorities, as part of the climate roadmap to be presented by the government in the autumn of 2023.

Being a small and export-oriented country, Sweden’s business community is very important for the welfare of the country and politicians will typically ensure that policies are aligned with corporate needs. Indeed, an old saying is that “What is good for Volvo, is good for Sweden”. Historically, this has meant that environmental legislation has been more lenient for the industry, for instance while Sweden has the world’s highest carbon tax, the industry has by and large been exempted from it.

In recent years, and especially around the last election, there has been a paramount change in the industry message to politics. Far from demanding more lenient rules and regulations, the industry has rallied around more than 20 sector-specific roadmaps to become fossil free, as part of the government initiative Fossil free Sweden. A wide industry coalition is now calling for the reduction quota not to be reduced, for subsidies to be given directly to suffering households and companies rather than through the lowering of fuel prices and more generally for the long-term decisions previously decided upon to be kept and delivered upon.

All of this is helped by Sweden not having any fossil fuel production; every liter of oil, petrol or diesel and every cubic meter of natural gas is imported. Thus, every effort to reduce this dependency is an opportunity for a better trade balance, for more money to stay within the national economy and for green jobs to be created in Sweden. It is in this context that the Swedish 2030-target and the seven party-agreement behind it is to be seen; it is an unique opportunity to create jobs and strengthen the industry, and it is this tiny country’s one opportunity to be of global relevance in the issue that matters the most for our common future.

illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of leading Sustainability & Energy writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.

A fossil-independent transport sector: the lessons from Sweden’s 2030 strategy

By 2030, 50 percent of all vehicles sold and manufactured in Thailand are to be electric, by 2035 a full 100 percent. The policy instruments are now being designed to achieve the goals, with a twist that is highly relevant for other countries wishing to become leaders in electromobility.

At COP26 in Glasgow, Thailand tightened its climate target to become carbon neutral by 2050 and climate neutral by 2065-2070, the latter including methane emissions from Thailand's vast rice fields. To meet the 2050 target, the energy sector is to reach 50 percent renewables by 2037, with an emphasis on floating photovoltaic systems and offshore wind. The most far-reaching objective, however, concerns the transport sector; by 2030 50 percent of all new vehicles in Thailand are to be electric while for 2035 the target is 100 percent. The goal applies for every kind of road transport, from the smallest tuk-tuk to the largest truck, as well as the manufacturing of vehicles. In that aspect the target is tougher than many other countries – for example Sweden’s 2030-target does not include what Volvo, Scania and others manufacture for export.

Southeast Asia's automotive hub looks to the future

In 2021, just under 1.7 million vehicles were produced in Thailand, making it the number one country in Southeast Asia for vehicle manufacturing, just outside the global top-ten list. Major Chinese, Japanese, American and German car brands are all producing cars here, in roughly that order of magnitude. Most build fairly basic pick-ups and vans for the regional ASEAN, South-East Asian market, something that the Thai government would want to change. A focus on higher-end products would increase the benefits for the national economy, while at the same time reduce the risk of manufacturers looking elsewhere within ASEAN to find cheaper cost of labor.

This is why Thailand’s strong emphasis on electric vehicles is not just focusing on the streets – where EVs help not only towards reaching the climate target but also to reduce air pollution in the major cities – but also on the factories. For the same reason, the country’s stimulus for electric vehicles is aimed at the manufacturers, not at the car buyer as in most countries.

In the next two years, the focus for Thailand is to get the domestic market for electric vehicles up and running, with a changed emphasis from 2024 when the main focus is local production of EVs. The Excise department of the Ministry of Finance signs individual agreements with vehicle manufacturers, who receive the equivalent of USD 2,000 per electric car sold on the Thai market, if the battery is 10-30 kWh, just over double that if the battery size is over 30 kWh. The stimulus is conditional on producing as many electric cars in Thailand as they import within three years, in five years 50 percent more – if these targets are not met, the incentive will have to be repaid partially or in full. To help this happen, import duty on key components is removed. Among those who have agreed are Chinese car companies MG, Great Wall and BYD, the latter now constructing a greenfield car plant to produce 150,000 EVs per year in Thailand from 2024. Taiwanese Foxconn is also planning to establish an electric car factory in Thailand, especially interesting because it is a joint venture with national oil and gas giant PTT which seeks to diversify its business. Toyota also signed a deal with the government, smaller in scope but potentially at least as important to attract other investors. Mercedes, which inaugurated a local battery assembly plant already in 2019, will assemble its advanced luxury electric car EQS in Thailand, a decision that may prove much more important than the limited production figures themselves.

To attract consumers, Thailand’s high tariffs on imported vehicles, up to 80 percent, is halved for electric cars that cost a maximum of approximately USD 60,000, and reduced to 60 percent for more expensive electric cars, provided that they have a battery of at least 50 kWh. The rebate is valid for vehicles with up to ten wheels, including hydrogen-powered ones. Furthermore, the excise tax on electric cars is reduced to 2 percent, against 8 percent for other cars. For electric motorcycles, every sale is sponsored with a flat USD 600, provided that the price to the customer is a maximum of USD 5,000, while importers of electric bicycles receive a three-year tax exemption.

In total, the government is allocating USD 90 million in 2022 for incentives for electric vehicles, and intends to allocate USD 1.2 billion over the next three years. Chatri Limpongsai, CEO of Thailand's Board of Investment, estimates that investments in electromobility in Thailand have now passed USD 5 billion, which may be seen as a good return on investment. Krisda Utamote, president of Thailand's electric car association EVAT predicts that by 2025 at least 10 percent of all vehicles manufactured in Thailand will be electric.

The three-wheeled tuk-tuk is a symbol of Thailand, but many are forty years old, noisy with unhealthy emissions and high fuel consumption. In Thailand's second-largest city, Chiang Mai, Uber's local counterpart Grab is turning 450 Tuk Tuks into electric power. Since the running costs are reduced by up to 80 percent, this does not require any subsidies, only that the owner is given the loan for the conversion and can easily re-register the vehicle. To speed up the transition, Grab is giving the electric tuk-tuks high visibility in its booking app, and is now bringing the experience to other markets.

Another symbol of Thailand is the longtail boats, which can be used even in very shallow waters due to its propeller being almost parallel to the water surface. They often use old truck engines with little or no noise and exhaust control, but in the floating market in Ratchaburi, the regional energy authority finances the conversion of 25 longtail boats to solar powered electric motors. The aim is to convert longtails in other floating markets, with much the same economic rationale as for the electric tuk-tuks.

According to navigation company TomTom, Bangkok with its ten million inhabitants is the world's busiest city. For quick commutes, the metro and the Skytrain are often the best choice, but due to high ticket prices, many lower income households mainly rely on the bus. The system is modern, with real-time information, wifi and mobile chargers at the bus station, but the buses themselves are ancient, noisy and uncomfortable. The Metropolitan Region wants to change this with electric buses, through a first-of-its-kind agreement with Switzerland. It funds the e-buses and uses the climate gains towards reaching its own climate targets, through an agreement under the Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Up to 5,000 buses will be replaced, the first several hundred currently being delivered by local manufacturer Energy Absolute, which will also operate some of the concession routes. EVATs spokesperson Yossapong Laoonual sees the e-buses as crucial to the whole transition "When public transport transitions, everyone understands the concept. In addition, they are of great importance to the environment because they are used by many and run a lot."

The Chao Phraya river divides Bangkok into two, and for those living or working across the river ferries are the main mode of transport. Most of them are old, dirty and noisy. Smart Ferry challenges this with a fleet of twenty electric ferries that each take 250 people, have a 10 knots per hour cruising speed which is faster than regular ferries and can run the whole day with only limited support charging, due to their 800 kWh batteries. The Smart Ferry is a subsidiary of the same Energy Absolute providing buses to Bangkok, which now also launches a small electric truck, covering the needs of many transport companies since it can also be configured as a small bus, a food truck and other applications. To speed up the conversion, EA CEO Sompote Ahunai is proposing that only electric freight should be allowed to enter Bangkok at night.

The battery is the most valuable part of an electric vehicle, and Thailand doesn't want to depend on imports from China and Korea. Therefore, anyone manufacturing batteries in Thailand receive USD 20 per kWh in return for lowering the price to the buyer – typically a vehicle manufacturer – by the same amount.

American Evlomo is investing USD 1.2 billion in a 8 GW lithium-ion battery factory; a capacity equivalent to the needs of about 30,000 electric buses or 250,000 electric cars. Local producer EA already opened Southeast Asia's largest battery factory in Chachoengsao, Thailand, with annual capacity of 1 GW, which can be increased to 10 GW as demand increases.

In many markets around the world, state agencies are helping the EV market to develop be being first movers in acquiring electric cars. Thailand is no different, but more interesting is how others are incentivized to change, with the Thai Ministry of Industry's agreement with construction giant Siam Cement as a leading example. Siam will electrify 2,000 of their vehicles, such as cement mixers and forklifts. When there is no electric version of these vehicles available on the market, Siam will take responsibility for the conversion.

Using the same rationale, the state energy conglomerate EGAT's is installing a battery replacement facility at its headquarters, encouraging motorcycle taxis to switch to electricity. With hundreds of transports to and from the HQ every day, EGAT believes it can create a market for 600 electric motorcycles already in the first year of operations. At the other end of the market, the tank trucks at Bangkok’s Don Mueang Airport will be converted to electric power by Bangkok Aviation Fuel Services which sees this as a first step to diversify its revenue away from aviation fuels.

The chicken or egg: The charging infrastructure first

The countries that have come the furthest in the transition to electromobility have had to deal with the chicken and the egg situation; who will install a charging infrastructure if there are no EVs and who will buy an EV if there is nowhere to charge it?

The Thai government has set the goal of 12,000 fast chargers by 2030, while the state electricity company MEA is lowering the price of electricity used for charging to encourage property owners to install chargers.

Amongst car companies, BMW with its ChargeNow brand was a first mover, beginning to install public chargers already in 2017 and now surpassing 600. This is an important reason why they now have almost a third of the market for electrified cars – mainly plug-in hybrids – despite the fact that their cars are almost twice as pricey in Thailand as in Europe. MG, Porsche and Nissan have followed suit and Volvo is establishing solar-powered chargers at their dealerships, inviting everyone is to charge and hoping to show their products while the car is being charged. The largest charging network is being developed by Chinese car company Great Wall, producer of the local EV best seller Ora Cat, which is partnering with EGAT, the regional electricity companies and Bangkok's electricity companies.

Not just electricity: The bio-initiative continues

Thailand's transport target is focused on electromobility, but biofuels play an important role in reaching its overall climate target. At the gas station one refuels B20, diesel with 20 percent locally produced biodiesel, and "gasohol" E20, gasoline with 20 percent ethanol. As oil prices have risen, the blend has acted as a buffer, which is a key reason for national biofuel subsidies to be extended until at least 2024. There is also government support for E85, with 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent petrol. It was previously available at more than 1 100 gas stations, but since only some car brands offer Flexifuel-cars, the number of E85 gas stations has decreased rapidly.

The biofuels also provide additional income for the country’s farmers, which grow over two million hectares of sugarcane and cassava for ethanol. Since blending began just over 15 years ago, it has reduced oil imports by 12 billion liters and carbon dioxide emissions by 35 million tonnes.

In Thailand as in many other countries, owning your own car is a status symbol for many, but especially in Bangkok where parking is scarce and traffic is dense, more and more people are interested in having access to cars without the hassles of ownership. The leading carpool operator Haupcar now offers upwards of a thousand cars in over a hundred locations, with a rapidly increasing proportion of electric cars. This includes a hundred locally manufactured Fomm, the world's smallest four-seater electric car, adapted to the monsoon's flooding since it actually floats. It became a well-known and appreciated feature during the covid lockdown, as it was lent free of charge to hospital staff.

As everywhere else, sales of electric vehicles in Thailand is increasing. As we have seen, the switch is happening particularly for public transport, small trucks and passenger cars. But is it enough to meet Thailand’s goal? The stimulus provides clues; It binds manufacturers to produce EVs domestically and many manufacturers have already signed the agreements. But most of the stimulus is short-term and the government is not always consistent with the targets – sometimes 30 percent EVs rather than 50 is mentioned for 2030, and at times the emphasis is only on the domestic market, leaving the production target out. Furthermore, with its 18 coups d'état and as many constitutions, there would be some justification is doubting long-term Thai targets.

The main reason why we may be confident in Thailand’s targets for electromobility, is the value it creates for the country and its economy. Clearer than perhaps any other country, Thailand has posed the question in a way that can only be answered affirmatively: Do we want to leave the low-income, low-margin, unsustainable sector of automotive business behind, focusing on higher value, more profits and a improved sustainability, gaining international acclaim and recognition as we go?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-22/thailand-lays-out-bold-ev-plan-wants-all-electric-cars-by-2035

Thailand’s climate target: UNFCCC, https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-06/Thailand%20Updated%20NDC.pdf

Thailand’s agreements with manufacturer (example): Thai Board of Investment, https://www.boi.go.th/index.php?page=advertorial12&language=en

Global vehicle manufacturing numbers: Statista,

https://www.statista.com/statistics/226032/light-vehicle-producing-countries/

Other sources are mostly easy to find, but can also be had from the author on request

Illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of leading Sustainability & Energy writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.

Thailand: 100 percent electric vehicles by 2035 – with a twist

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Mattias Goldmann

Mattias Goldmann

Thailand: 100 percent electric vehicles by 2035 – with a twist

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