As it stands, Russia supplies some on average 1,600TWh of gas per year to Europe which represents 40% of Europe’s needs. There is probably about 300TWh in storage in Europe right now meaning we need to find 1,300TWh over the next 12 months. How can we do it?

It seems appropriate and somewhat ironic to start with a quote from Vladimir Lenin: “there are decades when nothing happens, and there are weeks when decades happen.” That certainly was true of the week gone by. I wrote a blog last week on 

. This week I must address how Europe can survive without Russian gas next winter. The good news is it possible, the bad news is that it will be very expensive and highly disruptive.

Russia supplies some on average 1,600TWh of gas per year to Europe

. There is probably about 300TWh in storage in Europe right now meaning 

 over the next 12 months. How can we do it?

The global LNG market is around 5,400TWh per annum, but the bulk of that capacity has already been bought, under long term contract, by countries like South Korea and Japan. The good news is the US can produce more gas and with many new LNG ships on the waters and an expanded Cheniere export terminal opening as I write the US may be able to supply 430TWh this year up from 230TWh in 2021. That is the 

The only real possibilities here are from North Africa and Azerbaijan, noting that there has, in recent years, been spare capacity on the connecting pipelines. 

3. Substitute gas with all other forms of generation

Europe used about 900TWh of gas for electricity generation last year

. This can be in most countries be substituted by other fossil fuels such as oil and coal and cleaner resources such as nuclear and renewables. It will be critical to keep nuclear and coal plants on noting that German nuclear plants which are due to close by end of this year produced 65TWh of power last year. The other critical thing is to build as much renewable capacity as possible this year which would mean bringing in emergency legislation to allow quicker regulatory approvals. Europe needs to invest significantly in flexibility measures such as energy storage and enable the use of electric vehicles as grid resources, all of which will impact the need for gas peakers on the power system. These combined measures could give us ad 

A decade ago, Europe produced as much as 120TWh on average per month of gas, but by 2021, it was down to 40TWh. The major question mark here is over the Groningen field in the Netherlands, the largest gas field in Europe for many years, which is due to close this year. Technically, more gas can be extracted from the field, but there is a Dutch government moratorium because of tremors caused by drilling. The good news is that 

UK and Norwegian production should increase

 following COVID related production weakness which should see European production reach 50TWh per month to give us Europe an 

Customers need to be informed of the enormity of the challenge in front of all Europeans and be asked to immediately engage in both energy and cost saving measures. 

One simple fact is that every one-degree reduction in temperature in buildings gains about 97TWh of gas

. Putting on a pullover at home would allow Europe to thus gain 200TWh. You could argue that price increases by themselves might force these changes but better still would be to explain the situation and ask people to do so of their own volition. In addition, incentives could be put in place to push energy efficiency measures such as better insulation and heat pumps as a replacement for gas boilers.

We have already seen production stoppages in Europe at production facilities such as fertiliser plants which are highly sensitive to natural gas prices. Going forward, with a $15 difference between US and European natural gas and no end in sight businesses will naturally shut production. Beyond such curtailments, non-critical industries will also need to be incentivized or forced to close production, noting that industry represents 20% of demand for natural gas. A 

On paper it is thus possible to quickly move away from Russian gas but 

there are other obstacles to executing on this plan

We are seeing unprecedented volatility in oil, coal, gas and electricity markets which is a reflection of the high level of risk around energy. These prices will lead to higher retail energy prices which will have an impact on the cost of living of all European citizens and the competitiveness of many businesses. Practically, governments will need to help people and vulnerable commercial and industrial customers through this crisis. Engaging with them early is a key to being prepared.

Most of the European gas infrastructure was designed with a view to transport gas from east to central Europe. The issue now is that much of the needed gas infrastructure is not in place to transport gas from west Europe (Iberia), where most of the LNG terminals with spare capacity are situated, to central and Eastern Europe. In addition, if individual countries decide to overbuy to make sure they have enough gas, then it could well be that other countries do not have enough. The key is to make sure there is 

. The issue is that the EU has a very slow and cumbersome decision-making process.

We have already seen energy companies like Uniper under liquidity pressure due to market volatility which resulted in them needing to secure a credit facility of €10bn from Fortum and the German state bank, the KfW. The volatility is now higher than it was before Christmas when they secured that facility which is making it a very difficult environment for all energy companies to operate in. It is critical that emergency loan facilities are put in place to prevent bankruptcies and further disruption. In addition, natural gas buyers need governmental guidance around their long-term ‘take or pay’ agreements with Gazprom which force them to pay even if they do not take delivery of the gas.

Energy Voices is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of leading Energy & Sustainability writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.

The 1,600 TWh Challenge: How Europe can survive without Russian Gas

Politics and energy have never been far apart. In fact, if you look at history, energy is often the reason why war have started (think the US led invasion of Iraq in 2003). Energy access has also been the reason why wars have been won and lost (WW2 for instance). What the Russian invasion of Ukraine is showing is how utterly dependent Europe is on Russia for not only natural gas, but also oil and coal. And what those tanks have done is to brake the trust between Germany and Russia. That is a real game changer for European geopolitics and energy. This begs the question what should Europe do? In a nutshell, we need to REWIRE EUROPE. 

 have never been far apart. In fact, if you look at history, energy is often the reason why war have started (think the US led invasion of Iraq in 2003). Energy access has also been the reason why wars have been won and lost (WW2 for instance). What the Russian invasion of Ukraine is showing is how utterly dependent Europe is on Russia for not only natural gas, but also oil and coal. And what those tanks have done is to 

brake the trust between Germany and Russia

 for European geopolitics and energy. This begs the question what should Europe do? In a nutshell, 

Europe needs bold ideas that help it in the short and long term and it needs to be brave in the implementation of these ideas. 

 – We may need to pay customers to not use gas and to reduce the usage of natural gas in the electricity system. This 

 plants running for the foreseeable future. Practically, Germany and Belgium may both have to delay closures of nuclear plants and the same may need to happen for coal plants across the continent.

– This is not an easy task given that over 

one third of European fossil fuels come from Russia

 but the reality is that every euro spent on Russian fuels can be used to strengthen the ability of that country to make war. Practically, we may need to rethink the closure of the North Sea gas wells but also be prepared to import energy at higher prices from other parts of the world.

 – Europe needs to buy as much as it can in terms of uranium and fossil fuels 

 to keep the lights on and our economies working. Practically, this means working very closely with other partner nations such as the United States and Australia.

– Wholesale energy prices have been on the rise for months and at current levels make European industries (particularly chemicals and steel production) uncompetitive globally. In addition, we will see the higher wholesale prices being passed onto retail customers which is going to have a 

severe impact on inflation and consumer spending

 but in particular the lower income groups in our society. Practically, governments will need to help people and companies through these difficult times.

However, these are only reactionary solutions that help us over the next 12 months. Beyond that we need bigger, braver and more sustainable change. 

We need a Rewiring Europe programme that unites Europe and makes it stronger.

 To do this we need to immediately begin to: 

quickest way to decarbonise is to electrify

 as much as possible of the energy system. That is also the most sustainable way to ween off Russian fossil fuels and to build an energy independent Europe built around low cost renewables and other clean technologies. To do that we need radical regulatory changes to ensure a speedy and low cost transition. This starts with improving planning laws to allow quick build out of renewables and the necessary grid infrastructure.

– Today across many European countries (Denmark and Germany for instance) 

electricity is the most expensive way to power

 your car and heat your home. The recent surges in natural gas prices have now made electricity even more expensive. There are a whole pile of measures than can be put in place, such as 

ost efficiency improvements to wholesale power market reforms

, which move away from the marginal cost pricing whereby the most expensive power plant determines the price for everyone. In addition, taxes and other charges should be removed to ensure that electricity becomes the cheapest form of energy. That will in turn give the financial incentives customers need to make long-term investment decisions.

 – There is still a large amount of European electricity produced with fossil fuels, most of which is imported. If we are to decarbonise and gain energy independence, then 

. The advantage of renewables is that the resources (be that wind, solar, waves or geothermal heat) are all local. They are also clean but we need to put in the incentive structures to ensure the cost effective and speedy buildout of this infrastructure. However many of these technologies, although low cost, are not able to produce energy 24/7 which is why 

. The good news is that we have lots of fossil fuels storage which can be used if needed but there needs to be 

investments in other storage technologies

 such as batteries and fossil fuel alternatives such as efuels which can be stored in existing storage capabilities.

– the majority of energy is wasted in the form of lost heat. Electrification is a much more efficient way to use energy, noting that an electric car uses one third the amount of energy of an ICE car. But electrification is not enough. We need to invest heavily in improving the quality of our building stock as well as other regulations and measures to 

 – Higher prices for fossil fuels will help to push customers to seek other alternatives. Incentives need to be put in place to ensure any new investments go into cleaner alternatives such as heat pumps and EVs. In addition, it may well be that Europe needs to bring in a 

 to ensure that European jobs and emissions are not simply exported to another part of the world.

 – The energy transition is a huge opportunity for European businesses and innovators, but sadly to date Europe and all the various countries have been 

very bad at commercialising energy technologies

. This is particularly the case in two key energy transition technologies: solar and lithium-ion batteries where Europe has been at the forefront in terms of innovation but where we have no global leaders. Part of the issue is the university approach to innovation which is not commercially focussed enough. This needs to change and EU and government money really needs to be much more strategically focussed rather than the sprinkler approach that is currently used.

Bring together national security, decarbonization and industrial interests

 - energy security has always been a part of national security but thanks to the onset of US shale oil and gas, the general view has become that we live in a world flush with cheap oil and gas. The current crisis is an eye opener to Europe which now needs to make 

energy independence a core focus going forward

. Given that Europe has not a lot of fossil fuel resources that means a need to focus on locally available resources such as solar. That is good for decarbonisation BUT here the issue is that nearly all solar panels come out of China which again is not good for national security or Europe’s industrial future. 

Thinking strategically about national security and decarbonization

 would enable Europe to build competitive advantages in critical industries for the 21st century.

Finally, as Winston Churchill was working on the establishment of the United Nations after WW2, he famously said "Never let a good crisis go to waste." We should not and we should focus on Rewiring Europe.

Why we need to Rewire Europe and learn from past energy policy mistakes

Gerard Reid is a leading authority on energy and mobility and the co-host of "

", the #1 most listened to podcast on energy topics. He is also founding partner of 

Institute of the Environment of the University of Minnesota

 and a member of the Global Future Council on Advanced Energy Technologies at the 

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Gerard Reid

Gerard Reid

Why we need to Rewire Europe and learn from past energy policy mistakes

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