Xi is chasing a huge concession from Trump: Opposing Taiwan independence

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🗞️ Driving the news: Chinese President Xi Jinping is seeking a major diplomatic concession from President Donald Trump: an explicit U.S. declaration that it “opposes” Taiwan independence
• According to sources close to the matter, Xi sees Trump’s eagerness for a high-profile trade deal as a rare window to press this longstanding strategic demand, which Beijing believes could significantly reshape international perceptions of Taiwan’s status

🔭 The context: The U.S. maintains a One China policy — acknowledging Beijing’s claim over Taiwan without endorsing it—and has long avoided formally opposing Taiwanese independence
• China, meanwhile, views Taiwan as a breakaway province and has ramped up military and diplomatic pressure under Xi’s leadership
• While Trump has pursued tough trade terms with China, he has also shown a transactional approach to foreign policy, giving Xi reason to believe the issue may be leveraged amid economic negotiations

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: Any shift in U.S. policy on Taiwan would have far-reaching geopolitical and security implications, potentially destabilising the Indo-Pacific region
• Taiwan is not only a democratic and strategic partner of the West but also a global hub for semiconductor manufacturing and green tech
• Undermining its autonomy risks emboldening authoritarian actors globally and could erode norms around sovereignty, democratic governance, and supply chain resilience

⏭️ What's next: The coming months will likely see intensified behind-the-scenes diplomacy as China pushes for language changes in joint statements or bilateral communiqués
• Any perceived softening of the U.S. stance could alarm allies like Japan and Australia, while prompting Congressional backlash at home
• Key summits, including potential meetings between Xi and Trump, will be closely watched for signals of convergence — or fracture — on this pivotal issue

💬 One quote: “Xi views Trump’s desire for a deal as an opening to advance China’s red lines on Taiwan,” said one person familiar with Beijing’s strategy

📈 One stat: Taiwan produces over 60% of the world’s semiconductors and more than 90% of the most advanced chips, making its stability critical to global technology supply chains

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