WMO Update predicts 60% chance of La Niña

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🗞️ Driving the news: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued an update predicting a 60% chance of La Niña conditions forming by late 2024
• La Niña typically brings short-term cooling impacts, contrasting the warming effects of El Niño, although overall global temperatures continue to rise due to climate change
• Neutral conditions currently prevail, but the likelihood of La Niña is expected to increase towards early 2025

🔭 The context: La Niña involves the cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific, influencing global weather patterns, including increased rainfall in some tropical regions and cooler temperatures in others
• Despite its cooling effects, La Niña will not offset the long-term warming driven by greenhouse gas emissions
• The report emphasizes the importance of seasonal forecasts for informing climate adaptation strategies

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: While La Niña can alleviate some of the immediate impacts of climate change, the ongoing rise in global temperatures and extreme weather events underscores the urgency of climate action
• Early warning systems are critical for preparing communities for these shifts in climate patterns

⏭️ What's next: The WMO will continue monitoring ENSO conditions closely, providing updates to governments and stakeholders to support early warning systems and climate resilience efforts
• Above-normal sea surface temperatures are predicted to persist globally, except for the equatorial Pacific

💬 One quote: “Even if a short-term cooling La Niña event does emerge, it will not change the long-term trajectory of rising global temperatures,” says WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo

📈 One stat: The chance of La Niña emerging increases to 60% between October 2024 and February 2025

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