· 4 min read
• Europe's reliance on fossil fuels creates geopolitical vulnerabilities, as seen in the 2022 energy crisis
• Renewables offer true energy independence by reducing exposure to supply disruptions and price volatility
• Expanding fossil fuel production is a short-term illusion; Europe must accelerate its clean energy transition
Introduction
The link between energy dependence and geopolitical risk has never been clearer. Europe’s reliance on imported fossil fuels has made it vulnerable to supply shocks, price volatility, and political coercion. The 2022 energy crisis, triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, exposed just how fragile this dependence can be. Now, as some argue for a return to fossil fuel expansion—echoing rhetoric like Trump’s "drill, baby, drill"—Europe faces a choice: either double down on the clean energy transition or risk repeating the mistakes of the past.
Fossil fuel dependence: a geopolitical weakness
For decades, Europe’s economy has been shaped by its dependence on oil and natural gas imports. This dependence has come at a cost. Russian gas, once seen as an economic convenience, became a geopolitical weapon when supply cuts sent energy prices soaring. The lesson is clear: energy dependence translates directly into strategic vulnerability. The idea that ramping up domestic fossil fuel extraction could offer energy security is misleading. Fossil fuel reserves in Europe are limited compared to global demand, and expanding domestic drilling would do little to shield economies from global price swings. Additionally, fossil fuel markets remain deeply intertwined with international supply chains, meaning any price shock—whether from OPEC decisions, geopolitical conflicts, or financial speculation—will continue to reverberate across Europe.
Clean energy: the path to stability and security
In contrast, renewables provide a pathway to genuine energy independence. Wind and solar are not only abundant and cost-effective but also free from the geopolitical risks associated with fossil fuel supply chains. A system powered by renewables is far less vulnerable to political blackmail or supply disruptions, as the energy is generated domestically and requires no imported fuel.
Beyond renewables, carbon capture and storage (CCUS) and energy storage technologies further strengthen security by ensuring stable energy supplies even when renewable output fluctuates. CCUS allows for the continued use of essential industrial processes while capturing emissions, and advanced battery storage ensures that renewable energy can be dispatched as needed. Together, these technologies create a resilient energy system that insulates Europe from external shocks.
The false promise of a fossil fuel revival
Some policymakers, particularly in the U.S., argue that ramping up fossil fuel production is the best way to achieve energy security. This argument, however, ignores the fundamental shift happening in global energy markets. Fossil fuel extraction remains capital-intensive and increasingly uncompetitive compared to renewables. Moreover, doubling down on fossil fuels locks in future dependence on volatile global markets rather than fostering true self-sufficiency.
For Europe, embracing a "drill, baby, drill" mentality would be particularly misguided. Unlike the U.S., which has vast oil and gas reserves, Europe lacks the scale of fossil resources needed to meet its energy demands domestically. Instead of wasting time and investment on short-lived fossil fuel projects, Europe should focus on accelerating the deployment of renewables, expanding interconnections between energy grids, and investing in energy storage and carbon management.
Policy priorities for energy and geopolitical security
To secure its energy future, Europe must prioritise:
• Massive investments in renewables: Expanding wind and solar capacity to ensure that domestic, low-cost energy is the backbone of the economy.
• Grid infrastructure upgrades: Strengthening and expanding electricity grids to integrate renewable energy across regions and avoid bottlenecks.
• Energy storage expansion: Scaling up battery storage and hydrogen-based storage solutions to ensure stability even when renewable generation fluctuates.
• CCUS deployment for hard-to-abate sectors: Ensuring that industries that cannot be easily electrified, such as cement and steel, can still decarbonise without being tied to fossil fuel dependence.
• Strategic raw material partnerships: Securing critical minerals for clean energy technologies through sustainable mining and partnerships with resource-rich regions, reducing dependency on single suppliers.
Conclusion
Energy security and geopolitical security are one and the same. Europe’s reliance on fossil fuels has repeatedly exposed it to economic and political risks, while renewables offer a path to true independence. The notion that expanding fossil fuel production is the answer to energy security is outdated and ignores the reality of modern energy economics. Instead of falling for the illusion of short-term fossil fuel solutions, Europe must accelerate the clean energy transition, ensuring a future that is both geopolitically stable and economically resilient.
illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of leading Sustainability & Energy writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.
