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What if AI made the world’s economic growth explode?

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By illuminem briefings

· 3 min read


illuminem summarises for you the essential news of the day. Read the full piece on The Economist or enjoy below:

🗞️ Driving the news: Speculation is growing over whether artificial general intelligence (AGI) could trigger an unprecedented surge in global economic growth, with some technologists forecasting GDP growth rates of 20–30% annually
If realized, this would dwarf historical industrial revolutions and radically alter economic, labour, and financial systems

🔭 The context: For most of history, economic growth was virtually stagnant until the Industrial Revolution sparked sustained expansion
In the 20th century, global GDP growth reached an average of 2.8% per year
The emergence of AGI—AI systems capable of human-equivalent cognitive tasks—could represent a new growth paradigm, accelerating innovation cycles, automating knowledge work, and compressing development timelines across industries

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: While explosive growth may bring immense productivity gains, it also poses major sustainability risks
Without governance, surging consumption, energy use, and resource extraction could overwhelm environmental limits
Conversely, AGI could enable breakthroughs in clean energy, climate modelling, and precision agriculture. The challenge will be ensuring that such rapid technological expansion is aligned with planetary boundaries and social equity.

⏭️ What's next: Markets, labour structures, and regulation would need radical adaptation. Asset valuations, interest rates, and capital allocation models could be upended by extreme productivity shifts
Employment disruption across knowledge sectors may require new social contracts, including universal basic income or AI dividends
Governments and multilateral institutions will face growing pressure to establish ethical and economic guardrails as AGI capabilities scale

💬 One quote: “For most of human history, the idea of sustained economic growth seemed absurd. The next wave of AI may make today’s growth expectations seem just as small-minded.”

📈 One stat: If AGI drives 20–30% annual GDP growth, global economic output could double every 2–4 years—a pace previously unimaginable in economic history

See on illuminem's Data Hub™ the sustainability performance of leading AI developers like OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic

Click for more news covering the latest on green tech

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illuminem's editorial team, providing you with concise summaries of the most important sustainability news of the day. Follow us on Linkedin, Twitter​ & Instagram

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