Trump, 1.5°C, and a world on fire: a wake-up call for climate leadership

A word of warning

This article may be a tough read. The news is universally bad, and the only real uncertainty is just how bad it will get. If you’re finding this to be a difficult moment, feel free to turn the page and read something else, absolutely no offence will be taken. However, if you’re ready to explore the megatrends that have become increasingly clear over recent days, read on.

The hottest year on record

As wildfires rage across California and icy storms disrupt the presidential inauguration on the East Coast of the United States, the world received a warning: 2024 was the hottest year in recorded history. The EU calculated that global average temperature reached 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels, breaching the critical 1.5°C threshold outlined in the Paris Agreement. While this breach is not the end, 1.5°C is considered an average over many years, 2024 provides a deeply worrying preview of the future that awaits us if warming continues.

Against this backdrop, Donald J. Trump has returned to the White House and delivered a body blow to global climate action by signing an executive order to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement. When enacted, the US will join Iran, Libya, and Yemen as the only countries outside this accord.

The withdrawal: a victory for short-termism

President Trump’s decision is as symbolic as it is substantive. The US, the world’s second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, played a central role in brokering the Paris Agreement in 2015. Its withdrawal signals a retreat from global leadership and may embolden climate laggards worldwide.

During Trump’s first term, his withdrawal from the treaty had a limited impact. The decision, announced in 2017, did not take effect until late 2020 due to United Nations regulations. This time, however, Trump’s administration could finalise the withdrawal in as little as a year.

Adding to the damage, Trump has pledged to dismantle former President Biden’s clean energy policies, calling them a “green new scam” in his inauguration address. He has promised to revive coal, remove all limits on fossil fuel production, and double down on his infamous “drill, baby, drill” mantra. Before last November’s election, analysts estimated that a second Trump presidency could add 4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide to US emissions by 2030, more than the annual emissions of India.

Fossil fuels and political influence

The fossil fuel industry’s influence on Trump’s agenda is hard to deny. Having donated $75 million to his campaign, the industry is poised to reap the rewards of deregulation and expanded drilling. The consequences, however, will be borne by the rest of the world.

Trump’s policies prioritise short-term economic gains for fossil fuel interests over long-term planetary stability. Yet even the economic arguments are increasingly tenuous. Renewable energy, particularly solar, is now cheaper than coal and natural gas in much of the US. Republican districts, many of which voted for Trump, have been among the biggest beneficiaries of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which has channelled billions into renewable energy projects.

The 1.5°C breach: what it means

A breach of 1.5°C is not the collapse of the Paris Agreement itself. That threshold is understood as a long-term average over 10+ years and not a single-year spike. But the significance of this breach cannot be overstated.

The world is no longer simply warming, it is accelerating. While factors like El Niño and increased solar cycle activity contributed to 2024’s record heat, scientists remain deeply concerned about unexplained anomalies. Climate models, already conservative in their assumptions, may not fully account for the pace of warming. This raises fears that we could be heading towards tipping points, irreversible changes to the Earth’s climate system, that are not yet fully understood.

The cost of inaction

The economic and human costs of climate inaction are mounting. Last year, extreme weather events caused $320 billion in damages globally. California’s wildfires alone have already cost $135 billion this year, destroying an area twice the size of Manhattan, taking lives, and displacing tens of thousands of people.

Even in a state as well-prepared as California, the challenges are overwhelming. The combination of record heat, drought, and 100 mph winds has created tinderbox conditions. Efforts to fight the fires have been hampered by low water pressure, and smoke and turbulence caused by the heat have made aerial firefighting extremely challenging. Meanwhile, on the East Coast, deadly snowstorms have left millions without power. Could the stark reality of climate extremes in a warming world be any clearer?

A world without precedent

The old rules no longer apply. As temperatures rise, we are entering uncharted territory. Historical precedents can no longer guide us, and climate models are struggling to keep pace with reality. The Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target was always ambitious, and it is now clear that we are unlikely to meet it. Yet abandoning it is not an option. Keep up the fight and remember that every fraction of a degree matters.

Trump is risking the climate stability and safety of the planet as part of a culture war political strategy, heedless of the billions who will suffer as a result. At a time when the Earth itself is pushing back against decades of exploitation, this is more than a political setback. It represents a victory for short-term, corrupt, and vested interests that prioritise profit over people and planet.

This decision is not just about undermining international cooperation—it actively accelerates the dangers we all face. It emboldens polluters, weakens global momentum, and leaves the rest of the world to grapple with the fallout. The damage will not be confined within national borders. The suffering will not discriminate.

Now is the time for resolve, not retreat. If global leaders, businesses, and individuals fail to rise to the occasion, we risk not just losing ground, but losing the fight altogether. The stakes have never been higher.

What needs to happen

Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is a victory for short-termism and vested interests. But it is not the end of the fight. The rest of the world must rise to the occasion, and so must the US at the state, city, and corporate levels.

- Governments must prioritise long-term resilience over immediate gains, embedding sustainability into their policies.

- Businesses must go beyond greenwashing and make sustainability core to their strategies, seizing the economic opportunities of the clean energy transition.

- Individuals must demand accountability from their leaders, using their votes, voices, and purchasing power to drive change.

Time is running out, but the opportunity has never been clearer

We are on the brink of irreversible change. Every decision we make today will determine whether we build a resilient, sustainable future or succumb to chaos. The US’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement weakens global momentum and emboldens polluters worldwide. But it also underlines the necessity of bottom-up action. The choices we make today will shape the planet for generations to come.

The question is not whether we can afford to act. The cost of inaction is too high now and for future generations. A recent report confirmed that the global economy could shrink by 20% by 2050, and 50% from 2070 to 2090, if we don't take serious action now. Cheap, plentiful energy provided by renewables is an extraordinary economic opportunity. So maybe doubling down on drilling for the ‘possibility’ of some growth now, at the cost of half an economy later, isn't such a good idea.

This article is also published on the authors blog. illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of leading Sustainability & Energy writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.