Tony Blair's "disruptive" climate vision: right on target

The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, an influential think tank founded by the former British Prime Minister, recently published a provocative revisioning of global warming policy. Noting that the path we're on doesn't seem to be working, the authors call for a fundamental reset that seeks to engage all stakeholders, including the fossil fuel industry, as part of the solution. 

Tony Blair: strategic messenger

It's no surprise that this new plan comes from the mind of Tony Blair, the prime minister of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from 1997-2007. Blair is best known for his "Third Way" politics, which retained basic principles of Margaret Thatcher's conservative revolution but smoothed its excesses to make it palatable to old-guard liberals in his Labour party. Blair's centrism was inspired by Bill Clinton, who recognized that Reagan and Thatcher's landslide victories were among the few world-shifting political movements of the recent era. Clinton offered Blair a model by endorsing the key Reagan message - "the era of big government is over!" - while taking off its sharper edges to build an alliance with progressive Democrats. 

Now, Prime Minister Blair is applying this maximally inclusive approach to the biggest challenge of all. At a time when elite authority is under attack by populist forces around the world, the new strategic alignment he calls for may be our best chance to limit the ravages of climate change. 

A hard reality: fossil fuels will not quickly disappear

The piece in question, authored by Blair Institute expert Lindy Fursman, is titled "The Climate Paradox: Why We Need to Reset Action on Climate Change." It is preceded by a Forward written by Blair himself. Here, the former Prime Minister included one of those memorable sentences that he must have known would drive progressive climate activists crazy: 

"...any strategy based on either phasing out fossil fuels in the short term
or limiting consumption is doomed to fail."

Unfortunately, Blair is probably right. He points to two unhappy truths with devastating consequences for our ambitious goals to limit warming. First, much of the global South still remains far from Western development levels, and it is unreasonable and unfair to expect that these nations should give up their ambitions for economic growth. Second, enormous investments in new fossil fuel infrastructure have been made in the last decade, with production of coal, oil and gas all still increasing despite the boom in renewable energy. 

Given their domination of energy markets, it is inevitable that fossil fuels will make a sizable contribution to meeting the huge forecasted increases in energy demand over the next decades. Blair and Fursman plainly think that some common recognition of this reality is essential for confronting the escalating climate crisis. Ten years ago, when the Paris Agreement was passed, there may have been a fair chance that net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century could be attained. Today, that goal appears more implausible by the month - and it should not take an excruciating series of missed targets in the next decade to recognize this. Blair and Fursman emphasize that repeated failure to meet increasingly out-of-reach climate goals also undermines public confidence that any solution is possible. Hence, their call for a policy "reset," now.

Carbon capture is the key technology

The Blair Institute plan is a high-level concept piece, and needs to be read as such. It leans very heavily on technology, with industry carbon capture (CCS) and atmospheric carbon removal (CDR) at the top of the list. The need for capture and deep geologic sequestration of carbon dioxide is, of course, a no-brainer if one accepts that the oil and gas industry is going to be around for awhile. Blair labels the disdain for this technology, by those calling for a swift end to fossil fuel production, as "totally misguided." Plainly, he is asking us to accept that the only choice is between mitigating or not mitigating the CO2 emissions. Abolishing fossil fuels outright, at least in the short term, is not on the table.

This is tough medicine for those of us, myself included, who have optimistically highlighted the accomplishments of the renewable energy transition and stood by the Paris framework, even as fossil fuels relentlessly expanded. But if there can be any silver lining to the second Trump withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement, perhaps it will be the recognition that a fundamentally new road must now be taken.

Positive disruption

Carbon capture is just one aspect of a high-level strategy that Blair and Fursman call "positive disruption," the centerpiece of their vision. This is needed because the present mechanisms guiding climate action, especially at the international level, are insufficient to the pace of change required. And since disruption of the status quo is arriving whether we like it or not, the best course is to tap into this energy and guide it in productive directions. The alternative is not the present state of affairs, but rather a chaotic descent into regional rivalry and even greater inequality - exactly what Trump and other authoritarians are after.

Perhaps on purpose, our authors do not offer a precise definition of "positive disruption." But they are inviting technologists and financiers, with means and resources at their disposal, to deliberately seek innovative ways to shake up how we do business. AI is a big part of this, because it has the power to transform and accelerate how green technology can be applied. Examples include building energy management, electric grid optimization, satellite-based remote sensing and new energy sources like small modular nuclear reactors and enhanced geothermal. While recognizing its limits, Blair and Fursman also see a role for nature-based carbon sequestration. Compared to CCS and CDR, these approaches offer advantages of low cost and immediate applicability.

Blair and Fursman's vision for positive disruption also includes finance, policy and governance. Most importantly, the slow, unwieldy and hyper-bureaucratic UN process should cede some ground to new regional initiatives. An alliance between China and India is seen as particularly important, as it would connect the world's renewable energy powerhouse (China) with the country likely to lead global energy demand growth (India). New ways to finance clean technology, including with private philanthropy, are also crucial. The UN carbon-market trading mechanism, finally approved at last year's COP29 meeting, could play a key role in delivering badly needed capital for clean energy and carbon sequestration projects in developing countries.

A maximally inclusive, politically centrist vision

True to Blair's Third Way, his new vision for climate policy disruption fits comfortably at the center of climate politics. Its call to address the urgency of climate change is balanced by the inclusion of stakeholders across the full spectrum of the energy market. It neither villainizes nor extols fossil fuel companies, as the Left and Right would respectively do, but offers them a seat at the table. This holds open the potential for these firms to remain profitable, but with new business models that redirect their technological savvy in ways consistent with a stable and healthy climate.

I think this initiative offers precisely the bracing dose of realism needed to move beyond the current moment of apathy and psychic numbness about climate change. It provides inspiration that releases us from our present rut, and bypasses both denial and doomism. There is little chance that climate change deniers will buy into this vision, but I am holding out hope for my colleagues in the progressive advocacy movement. I hope they will come to recognize that their opposition to crucial technologies like nuclear power and CCS cannot succeed and will only reinforce existing divisions. And given the much larger impacts of global warming on environmental justice communities, solving the climate problem would, in itself, already be a huge win for social equity. 

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