· 6 min read
This is the sixth in an occasional series on the transition from Biden to the Trump administration—the early days. You can read part one, two, three, four and five here.
Washington has left chaos behind; mayhem now rules the nation's capital. I've never seen anything like it in my many years in politics. Trump is cleaning house – or at least trying to – and it's unlikely to end well for the US economy or the environment. At the same time, it may set off a constitutional crisis. It’s something I don’t say lightly.
Trump seems bound and determined not just to shake up the system, but to tear it down – from the inside out. The theory behind his early efforts seems to be to create enough chaos and mayhem for voters to demand an authoritarian president who can restore order. The theory's weakness is that once chaos reaches a certain level, you can't control it – even though you were the one who started it.
Trump, as promised, signed dozens of executive orders on Day 1. Included in the batch was the order Unleashing American Energy (EO). By energy we mean coal, oil, and gas.
The EO starts this way: “America is blessed with an abundance of energy and natural resources that have historically powered our nation's economic prosperity. In recent years, burdensome and ideologically motivated regulations have impeded the development of these resources [fossil fuels], limited the generation of reliable and affordable electricity, reduced job creation, and inflicted high energy costs upon our citizens.” (Emphasis added)
The critical word in these sentences is “ideological.” It's a theme that's continued later in the order when it states in “Section 7. Terminating the Green New Deal.” (Emphasis added). By the Green New Deal is meant – minimally – two of the three historic pieces of legislation passed during Biden's administration. The three laws are the Democrat-only Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. The somewhat bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act will also come to be lumped under the Green New Deal heading.
The Unleashing Order, and a separate order by the White House budget office (OMB), directed agencies to pause all federal expenditures pending a review by agencies for the conformity of the funding to priorities and policies of the Trump administration. Before continuing the discussion, let's put these few pieces together.
The keywords are ideological and the Green New Deal. These are themes Trump intends to carry through his second term. No science needs to apply over the next four years. As if any more proof were needed of his intent, he's "fired" all of the members of agency science committees.
The EO also directs “the Administrator of the EPA... the heads of any other relevant agencies, shall submit joint recommendations to the Director of OMB on the legality and continuing applicability of the Administrator’s findings, “Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases Under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act,” Final Rule, 74 FR 66496 (December 15, 2009).”
The finding followed the Supreme Court case Massachusetts v. EPA. The narrow 5 to 4 decision held that EPA is obligated to regulate CO2 and other greenhouse gases if they were found to endanger society. Without the endangerment finding, “all the climate stuff goes away,” as one of Trump’s former advisers so eloquently stated.
Trump is purposefully going to test the bounds of presidential power. He's cowed most Capitol Hill Republicans – for the moment – and seems to have his sights on the courts now. One of his Day 1 orders tried to rescind the US Constitution's 14th Amendment right to citizenship of anyone born in the US. Something that can't be done without amending the Constitution. It's a lengthy process that includes Congress and the states.
Just two weeks in office and President Trump has laid claim to Greenland, promised to take back the Panama Canal, is in the process of firing every government employee who was ever involved in any way with DEI, letting Elon Musk cancel the $43 billion United States Agency for International Development (USAID), offering the federal government’s 2.4 million employees a buyout, and just started what the Wall Street Journal called the “dumbest trade war in history.”
The courts stayed both the pause of federal funding and the birthright orders. Something that couldn't have surprised the president and his advisors. So, why do it?
Trump’s a tactical savant. I’ve got to give the devil his due. Beyond the performative value of the orders (his base is thrilled), the sheer number of actions has everyone – including “his” hill Republicans – so overwhelmed they don’t quite know where to start.
There are already myriad lawsuits against the administration over everything from illegally pausing expenditures to violating the Civil Service laws, with more on the way. As usual, it’s the lawyers who’ll profit.
The Democrats seem befuddled. However, when you're out of power, you're out of power.
Beyond the usual opposition patter and threatening filibusters in the Senate, there's not much they can do without the support of a few Republicans, which they're not likely to get – at least for a while.
However, things are not all roses for the president. At least seven hardcore conservatives in the House are unlikely to support any reconciliation bill, attempt to raise the debt ceiling, or fund the government for the remainder of the fiscal year without some concessions.
On a handshake deal, Johnson promised his uber-right member that the next appropriation bills would trim $2.5 trillion off the deficit over the next decade. Currently, estimates are that Trump's agenda would add hundreds of billions of dollars. It's a huge difference, and the patience of the most conservative members of the House seems to be running out.
The president is going to encounter resistance to his axing the IRA, Infrastructure, and CHIPS Act programs. Billions of public and private funds for new factories and job programs have flowed into red states. They'll be hard-pressed to have those canceled. It should be interesting to see how they distinguish them from the "woke" ideological agenda.
No politician I know of has willingly given back dollars their district was scheduled to receive – ever. Greed and thin majorities may be what save portions of Biden's legacy.
GOP congressional leaders are still pondering their budget reconciliation strategy. They've yet to decide whether it's to be one bill or two and are still facing the dilemma of raising the debt ceiling, which needs to be done by June. Reconciliation is a procedure that allows a budget-related bill to pass on a simple majority vote in the Senate – avoiding a filibuster.
There are signs of rifts between the MAGA-minded and more establishment Republicans. It’s being reported by The Hill that: “Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) is weighing a primary challenge to Sen. John Cornyn (R) in what could be the next high-profile proxy battle between the two competing wings of the state's GOP.”
To stop, Trump will require accommodations between establishment and moderate Republicans and Democrats. For now, expect the Democrats to be spectators, as Republicans have the wind at their backs.
This article is also published on the author's blog. illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of leading Sustainability & Energy writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.
