Globalisation's resurgence and the mandate of active multilateralism

The global paradox: From champion to sceptic

The story of globalisation is currently reaching a turning point. Western countries in particular promoted it for decades as a universal good that would result in wealth for all. But now, a lot of these same countries are complaining that the system they helped establish has "short-changed" them. There are multiple interrelated elements that contribute to this dilemma.

Economic disenfranchisement: Although billions of people have been lifted out of poverty worldwide by globalisation, its advantages have not been shared equally in rich nations. The gap between the rich and the working class has widened as a result, which has fuelled a populist backlash. The growth of manufacturing giants in emerging economies like China has led to the deindustrialisation of several sectors in industrialised countries, which has caused job losses and economic distress. This feeds a simplistic but politically powerful narrative of "zero-sum" competition, in which the success of one nation is viewed as the failure of another. For instance, research on the 2018–2019 U.S.–China trade war showed that tariffs raise consumer prices, interfere with international supply chains, and eventually result in a drop in domestic economic production.

Imperialistic and cultural underpinnings: There is more than just economic dissatisfaction. It frequently has layers of historical and cultural worries. A portion of this feeling can be linked to the former colonial countries' alleged decline in influence. These countries may see the emergence of other powers as a challenge to their current standing because they are used to a unipolar world and a dominant position. This can show up as "directionally motivated reasoning," in which people interpret data in a way that confirms their preconceived notions. A loss of influence can be portrayed as a betrayal by the international system, turning the political discourse into a weapon. This is the result of algorithms that value user interaction over critical or diverse viewpoints, a tactic commonly employed for geopolitical manipulation.

The geopolitical problem: Fragmentation over unity

The world's shift from a unipolar to a multipolar structure is directly responsible for the rise of geopolitics in recent years. Countries are actively readjusting and diversifying their alliances in response to the emergence of new powers. A competition to define the international order is resulting from this, and one facet of this competition is the use of various geopolitical accounts.

Instead of being a unifying factor, this increased geopolitical competitiveness is turning into a problem. It is characterised by a decrease in international cooperation, an increase in protectionism, and a deterioration in international trust. With more wars and crises spreading into unexplored areas, such as disruptions to vital infrastructure or cyber biothreats, the state of global security has drastically deteriorated. As a result, there is an increasing sense of fragmentation within and between nations, which makes it challenging to solve common issues.

The global pulse: Why globalisation is irreversible 

The story of the end of globalisation is an antiquated and dangerous myth. Because of trade, technology, and common problems, our world is so intertwined that no nation can be fully independent. A genuine retreat from globalisation is both strategically stupid and economically counterproductive, despite the increase of protectionist attitudes. The evidence is unmistakable: the post-Cold War wave of globalisation has been the greatest successful factor in reducing severe poverty, saving billions of people from poverty. The percentage of people living in extreme poverty worldwide has drastically decreased, falling from 42% in 1981 to just 8.6% in 2018, according to the World Bank. This is not a zero-sum game; rather, it is evidence of the strength of free markets and international cooperation, which have brought opportunity and prosperity to the great majority.

Asia is the beating heart of this new globalisation period. Asia's dynamism, with an annual economic growth rate of 5%, shows that the process of economic integration is just changing rather than coming to an end. The world is shifting from a low-value manufacturing-dominated model to one where growth is driven by higher-value sectors, digital technologies, and services. This change is a monument to the adaptability and continuous prosperity of globalisation rather than a sign of retreat. This is clearly supported by the experience of Vietnam, which adopted open-door policies, or by the notable economic progress brought about by globalisation in six ASEAN countries between 2006 and 2012.

The peril of isolation: A self-defeating path of zero-sum strategies 

It is dangerous for nations to turn inward and create barriers and impose tariffs. In a time of extreme interdependence, clinging to narrow self-interest and protectionism as zero-sum tactics is a mirage. Research on the U.S.-China trade war of 2018–2019 by organisations such as the European Central Bank and Bertelsmann Stiftung showed that tariffs increase consumer costs, interfere with international supply chains, and eventually result in a drop in domestic economic production. According to a 2017 ifo Institute study, such protectionist policies may, in the worst-case scenario, result in a 2.3% long-term decline in U.S. economic output. These acts weaken rather than protect. They isolate rather than empower.

However, isolationism ultimately has geopolitical as well as economic costs. Unilateral measures escalate economic disagreements into full-fledged geopolitical crises by fostering mistrust and instability. The days of putting up with this behaviour are finished. "No generation has had the opportunity, as we now have, to build a global economy that leaves no one behind," as former US President Bill Clinton so eloquently put it. It's a fantastic opportunity, but it comes with a great deal of responsibility. This duty now includes aggressively defending the world's fabric against those who would use egotistical, short-sighted acts to destroy it.

Active multilateralism: Global governance as the new peacemaker and enforcer 

International organisations' functions must change from being merely platforms for discussion to actively upholding the multilateral agreement. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) and the United Nations (UN) are no longer only forums for problem-solving; they are the cornerstones of a system that must actively fend off unilateral aggression. The UN must now have the authority to swiftly and effectively punish nations that violate international law through the Security Council, peacekeeping missions, and the strategic application of sanctions. Every country that wishes to be a part of the global fabric must think and act as though multilateralism is the solution, according to the core tenet of active multilateralism. This entails outright opposing unilateralism, which will be disapproved of and, more importantly, penalised by exclusion. 

Sovereign states are subject to legal and normative restrictions by these entities' sheer existence, which is reinforced by their repeated mandates. This makes unilateral aggression more challenging and expensive. Multilateralism, which holds that countries should work together to address global issues, is the antidote to isolationism's egotistical and counterproductive tendency. It acknowledges that no one country can endure on its own in a world of intricately linked problems, such as pandemics and climate change. In order to prevent the destructive pursuit of limited, isolated interests, a worldwide system of mutual accountability must be established.

The global energy transition: A mandate for multilateralism 

The pressing need to speed the global energy transition and sustainability pivot is the biggest test of our commitment to active multilateralism. The greatest international problem is the climate disaster, which no one country can resolve on its own. The globe will become less secure and the transition will be hampered by unilateral policies like protectionist clean technology laws or a lack of commitment to international climate agreements. The massive amount of infrastructure, innovation, and investment needed to transition from fossil fuels to renewables necessitates hitherto unheard-of levels of coordinated cooperation.

For this acceleration, multilateralism is essential. It makes it easier to share green technologies across borders, standardises rules for sustainable finance, and makes it possible to build expansive, networked energy networks. An example of this approach in action is the ASEAN Power Grid (APG). The APG guarantees energy security for the whole region by establishing a linked energy network, which also demonstrates a shared commitment to the transition to renewable energy. The isolationist idea that a country's energy future can be guaranteed in isolation is being rejected in a concrete, real-world way. Nations can make the change more quickly and affordably by pooling their resources than they could ever do alone.

ASEAN: The living model of active multilateralism 

Beyond energy, ASEAN's ongoing cooperation in a variety of areas, including commerce, military, sustainable finance, and food and water security, is building a strong and resilient regional community. By collaborating to tackle common issues, ASEAN nations are not only improving their own safety and well-being but also setting an example globally. As a result of their ongoing cooperation, ASEAN members are beginning to feel more united and that their combined strength is stronger than the sum of their separate parts. As a result of this identity, ASEAN is better able to project its voice and influence as a single, cohesive entity throughout the international community, demonstrating the potency of a strong regional identity as a catalyst for a more connected, peaceful world.

A blueprint for the unbreakable global fabric: The path to shared prosperity 

All countries must make a fresh, clear commitment to this active multilateralism model in order to go forward. Three non-negotiable components form the foundation of this future blueprint:

1. Mandatory digital and sustainable integration: Globalisation will have a sustainable and digital future. In order to support cross-border data and knowledge flows, nations must make proactive investments in infrastructure and technology. Furthermore, common sustainability norms must be followed by all players in the global economy. Alex Hong, a prominent ESG thought leader, is aware that making the sustainability pivot is not just the right thing to do, but also a practical imperative for a robust and accountable global economy. Those that don't incorporate these ideas will find themselves more and more out of step with international markets and cooperative projects.

2. Explicit consequences and exclusion for unilateralism: For countries that act unilaterally and pursue zero-sum strategies at the expense of international stability, the international community must clearly define the repercussions. Coordinated sanctions, trade restrictions, and political exclusion from international fora are examples of this. This deterrent needs to be automatic and believable, eliminating the uncertainty that has frequently undermined previous reactions to aggressiveness. Unambiguously, unilateral activities will result in isolation rather than benefit.

3. Reform and empowerment of global institutions: International bodies like the UN and WTO must be transformed to be more agile, representative, and effective. This entails providing them with the teeth to carry out their choices, increasing the equity of their membership, making sure that all countries' opinions are heard, and making sure that their judgements are accepted and implemented as a group. To ensure that the advantages of globalisation are truly shared, these institutions must actively manage its negative effects, such as workforce displacement, through improved social safety net funding and reskilling initiatives.

There is no such thing as an era of isolation. The question now is not whether a country will join the globalisation trend, but rather on what conditions, as it is an inevitable trend. Active multilateralism's mandate, which guarantees that the common good triumphs over destructive self-interest, is the only realistic route to enduring peace, prosperity, and security for all.

Singapore's pivotal role: The small state that matters

One of the best examples of how a small state may have enormous power is Singapore, a non-aligned nation that serves as a vital link between the East and the West. Despite its small size, it is well-known due to a well-thought-out plan and a special combination of circumstances.

• Strategic location and connectivity: Due to its strategic location linking East Asia and the Middle East, Singapore has been an important trading port for millennia. With connections to more than 600 ports in more than 120 nations, it is currently among the most connected nations in the world. Additionally, a major international port that is the second busiest in the world in terms of cargo volume is located there.

• Economic pragmatism: Singapore has continuously supported free-market capitalism, globalisation, and practical policies. More than 3,000 international firms have chosen to locate there, and its GDP per capita has grown 56 times from US500 in 1959 to US90,674 in 2024. This economic success demonstrates how it can open up its economy and prioritise human capital to transform disadvantages, such as a lack of natural resources, into strengths.

• Political stability and rule of law: Singapore is a safe and predictable place for international business because of its robust institutions, low level of corruption, and strict legal system. Because of its stability, it now leads the region in terms of economic potential.

• A bridging and convener role: Due to its special location, Singapore can play a significant role in promoting global cooperation. It regularly holds international conferences and events and actively cultivates relationships with prestigious colleges and institutions around the world, ranging from Stanford and MIT to prominent Chinese institutions. Additionally, it created the Forum of tiny governments (FOSS), a non-ideological, informal alliance of 108 nations that gives tiny governments a stronger voice at the UN.

The idea that tiny nations are unimportant is being aggressively rewritten by Singapore. It shows how a small state may be important and relevant at a time of fragmentation by serving as a centre for communication, law, and finance. This serves as an important counternarrative to the notion that power is solely determined by geographic size or military prowess.

Conclusion and call to action

Isolation is an illusion of the past. Globalisation is an irreversible trend, and the question now is not if a country will join it, but rather how. The only realistic route to enduring peace, prosperity, and security for everybody is through active multilateralism, which guarantees that the common good triumphs over destructive self-interest.

The future's blueprint is obvious. All countries must make a fresh, clear commitment to this approach. The implementation of three non-negotiable pillars—mandatory digital and sustainable integration, clear penalties for unilateralism, and the empowerment and reform of international institutions—requires our cooperation. This necessitates a proactive approach from individuals, corporations, and governments.

In order to support cross-border data and knowledge flows while upholding common sustainability norms, we must proactively invest in technologies. In addition to demanding a clear framework of penalties for countries who act unilaterally at the expense of global stability, we must support the strengthening of international bodies. Last but not least, we must acknowledge that the duty to create a global economy that does not leave anybody behind includes aggressively defending the world's fabric against those who would destroy it via petty, self-serving acts. The days of putting up with this behaviour are finished. This is a huge responsibility as well as an opportunity.

illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of leading Sustainability & Energy writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.

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