The unofficial jobs numbers are in and it’s rough out there

illuminem summarises for you the essential news of the day. Read the full piece on The Wall Street Journal or enjoy below:

🗞️ Driving the news: With the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shuttered amid a federal government shutdown, investors and analysts are turning to unofficial indicators — and the picture isn’t encouraging
• Private-sector data from Wall Street firms and independent surveys suggest the labor market is weakening, raising concerns about a potential slowdown in the broader economy

🔭 The context: The absence of official labor data comes at a precarious moment: while inflation pressures persist, employment strength had been one of the key pillars supporting consumer demand and investor confidence
• The data blackout has forced policymakers, economists, and markets to rely on alternative metrics from sources like payroll firms, business sentiment surveys, and high-frequency indicators — many of which now signal declining hiring activity and growing pessimism, particularly in retail, manufacturing, and logistics

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: A softening labor market can impact public and private investment in sustainability and clean technology
• Job growth and economic confidence often underpin government spending on climate infrastructure and consumer uptake of green products
• A downturn may stall progress on energy transition projects, delay corporate climate investments, or divert attention from climate legislation as economic stability becomes a more immediate priority

⏭️ What's next: If the shutdown continues and official data remain unavailable, markets will increasingly rely on fragmented and potentially less accurate sources of information, increasing volatility and policy uncertainty
• Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates could become more reactive to anecdotal trends, and businesses may delay hiring or investment
• The longer the blackout persists, the harder it becomes to gauge real-time economic health — just as crucial climate, infrastructure, and employment decisions loom for 2026 budgets

💬 One quote: “A host of alternative jobs data from Wall Street are pointing in the same direction: The U.S. labor market is losing steam.” – Konrad Putzier, WSJ

📈 One stat: In the latest WSJ-NORC poll, women reported significantly more negative views of the economy than men, but the data now show rising pessimism among men as well

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