The truth of COP30 – Europe’s climate and geopolitical knots find resolution in Beijing

The publication of the United States’ National Security Strategy has clarified America’s position on the EU, while in Beijing, alongside President Xi, Emmanuel Macron highlighted the risk of disintegration of the international order that has underpinned decades of stability, stressing that “dialogue between China and France is more essential than ever.” Xi, in turn, called on France to “hold high the banner of multilateralism.”

Commitments on technology exchange, investment, nuclear energy, environment, agriculture, food security, and development highlight both persistent differences and areas of convergence between the EU and China, and the shared responsibility to manage them. Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the full gravity of the crisis has not always been acknowledged in Beijing. The deteriorating geopolitical context now threatens the EU’s stability and political identity, pushing Macron — like other EU leaders — out of the comfort zone that dominates Brussels. The inadequacy of old narratives was clear at COP30 in Belém, where a frequently confused EU faced increasingly assertive and technologically advanced emerging economies.

The dual-track diplomacy between the EU and China, from COP to the G20 in Johannesburg, salvaged an otherwise catastrophic outcome, demonstrating that multilateralism still works, despite the sometimes aggressive opposition of the US administration. Missed opportunities, the path ahead, and the question of EU autonomy converge today in Beijing. Intertwined challenges of industrial transition, competitiveness, dependencies, trade, and climate adaptation can only be addressed through a steady, strategic dialogue with China, at least until the US re-engages. Macron’s visit is a step in this direction.

Although dynamics and alliances remain uncertain, a new world is emerging. The war in Ukraine is the prism through which the EU is forced to redefine itself.

Meanwhile, in Brussels, internal manoeuvring and obstructionist tactics continue to delay or overturn key legislation underpinning the green industrial transition, invoking the totem of “simplification” and adopting increasingly Trumpian postures, as Vice-President Teresa Ribera has noted. Some compare the pressure on the Commission to a DOGE-style attack, designed to paralyse its ability to govern. None of this fragmentation serves European interests — or China’s.

The EU faces a profound crisis of leadership, coherence, and identity. Extending a steady, prudent hand to key interlocutors, even amid uncertainty, could prove decisive. Otherwise, Beijing risks engaging tomorrow with a less autonomous, less coherent EU, in an increasingly dangerous world.

In this context, the EU must ask itself clearly: who are its partners, and who are its true adversaries? Some alliances will need reassessment. New forms of leadership are emerging: Finland and the Nordic countries demonstrate composure and determination grounded in military strength, while Spain and Portugal advance through green industrial innovation.

Yet a powerful question from citizens remains unanswered. Across the continent, businesses and households face rising climate costs, unresolved structural problems, and a growing sense of powerlessness. Politics has yet to offer solutions, neither to support the abandonment of the old nor to enable the new. The green transition is widely perceived as unfair, placing the cost of investment on individuals without rebalancing responsibilities.

This demand will ultimately be met by those with the courage to confront reality. China can play a constructive role by transferring technologies, models and solutions that have been piloted out, engineered and scaled up in the country over the past twenty years, and engaging constructively to codevelop those technologies and solutions that still need development and implementation. As President Macron remarked, the focus is now on securing investments from China, fostering joint ventures, technology transfer and encouraging collaboration. The roles have shifted, with emerging economies taking the lead. In doing so, China stands to bolster both its own position and that of the European Union, ensuring an orderly transition while supporting the multilateral system that has underpinned its growth.

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