The Paris Agreement’s collision with the Strait of Hormuz: When carbon capture and AI compute become targets

For the first time in modern history, we are witnessing the entry of Paris Agreement-aligned decarbonization infrastructure into the geopolitical domain of conflict via the Strait of Hormuz. This reflects a new reality: co-located Carbon Capture Storage (CCS) infrastructure, essential for generating low-carbon intensity Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) in Qatar’s Ras Laffan Complex, has been targeted in the Middle East alongside traditional hydrocarbons and data centers. 

This co-location model is now being replicated in the U.S. to power the digital frontier, as demonstrated by Google in Illinois for low-carbon compute, while ExxonMobil — part of the world’s first CCS project without enhanced oil recovery in Norway in 1996 — is actively advancing this model in the U.S. 

This is why, in a 2025 illuminem article, I outlined, shortly after helping shape the passage of South  America’s first CCS law, that “net-zero ambitions are increasingly on a collision course with AI, one  that could veer the Paris Agreement off track in ways both foreseen and under-explored. What  remains overlooked is the physical infrastructure driving AI’s ascent: energy inputs, without a  corresponding carbon management [CCS] plan.”

The author at the Strait of Hormuz, Oman, 2018 

The Ras Laffan complex as a system anchor 

The Strait of Hormuz has become the ultimate stress test for this thesis. It serves as the material intersection of energy (natural gas and CCS), physical infrastructure (data centers), and AI’s ascent.  As a "system anchor," its fragility reveals how interconnected these once-disparate domains have become. 

Data center architectures co-located with natural gas require reconsideration for this decade and beyond. When CCS is physically integrated into hydrocarbon infrastructure, disruption to the underlying system transmits directly into the cost, timing, and viability of both AI compute and CCS  projects. The strike on Ras Laffan during the 2026 conflict materially realizes this collision by targeting the CCS infrastructure servicing the North Field — the Qatari extension of the world’s largest gas reservoir shared with Iran’s South Pars — kinetic actors have effectively “recarbonized” the global LNG supply. 

Ras Laffan represents roughly 20% of global LNG supply and 5% of total global natural gas production, positioning it as a central engine for lower-emissions hydrocarbons, with CO2 partially geologically sequestered rather than released to the environment. From a British thermal unit perspective, natural gas produces roughly 30% less CO2 than oil and 45% less than coal for the same energy output. At the pre-combustion stage, Ras Laffan removes a significant portion of that CO2,  which underpins the logic for data center co-location. Importantly, CO2 removal capacity can be increased, leveraging Ras Laffan and other similar co-located natural gas and CCS industrial sites. 

The food versus fuel versus compute trilemma and industrial gases 

Yet this conflict introduces a new dilemma: the discussion has historically centered on food versus fuel in energy allocation, but the 2026 conflict forces an immediate expansion of that hierarchy: food versus fuel versus compute — a novel trilemma introduced here. The Persian Gulf supplies roughly 25% of global ammonia exports, making it a critical node in the global food system. 

This is grounded in a shared dependency: LNG and ammonia both originate from natural gas, which serves as the feedstock for hydrogen used in ammonia production, directly linking energy systems with global food production. Ammonia has been a key contributor to the expansion of the human population beyond 8 billion. Europe, already exposed due to the Russia–Ukraine conflict, and Asia will have to grapple with the food versus fuel versus compute dilemma as major importers of LNG. 

Natural gas, hydrogen, and CO2 function at their most basic level as industrial gases. This extends to helium. From this perspective, Qatar is not just an LNG powerhouse; it produces roughly 25% of the global helium supply — almost exclusively out of the Ras Laffan complex. Helium is a non-renewable byproduct of natural gas processing and, in the semiconductor world, is non-substitutable, making it critical to the production of high-end AI chips. 

Conclusion

When the 2026 conflict shuttered Ras Laffan’s CCS and LNG lines, it also impacted the global helium supply chain. This reinforces that the AI revolution does not run solely on code; it depends on a cryogenic supply chain spanning LNG and helium. The 2026 disruption at the Strait of Hormuz signals the entry of Paris Agreement-aligned infrastructure into the domain of kinetic conflict. This vulnerability now extends directly to compute. The conflict has forced a re-evaluation of the food versus fuel versus compute trilemma.

As a system anchor, the Strait represents a single point of failure where disruption triggers a simultaneous collapse across carbon capture infrastructure, hydrocarbon flows, industrial gases, and the data centers driving AI’s ascent. This crisis provides the definitive "big picture" case for the risks inherent in coupling CCS with natural gas.

illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of leading Sustainability & Energy writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.

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