The meaning of energy security: Why be beholden to foreign suppliers?

Trump seems absolutely convinced that he has other nations — friends and foes — over the proverbial barrel when it comes to tariff negotiations. Notwithstanding the flawed nature of his assumptions and methodologies, the tit-for-tat tariffs he keeps announcing (delaying and starting again) have seemingly brought other nations to the bargaining table. However, it doesn’t appear that any final agreements are in the offing.

Where Trump sees himself as a crack negotiator, leaders of other nations — particularly America’s closest allies — see him much the same way a New York shopkeeper might see a Mafioso trying to sell them “protection.” The president’s treatment of universities and law firms is in much the same vein.

Trump’s ham-handed thuggery shouldn’t be confused with skill. With the full weight of the federal government behind him, he’s in the driver’s seat. Even in the past, his “successful negotiations” generally happened because he beat down small business people with threats of ruining them, whether by not paying or taking them to court.

Being chased by the Trump administration and his MAGA-minded supporters in and out of Congress is hardly a walk in the park. Even the normally stoic Alaska senator Lisa Murkowski (R) has expressed fear.

“We are all afraid. We are in a time and a place where I certainly have not been here before. And I’ll tell ya, I’m oftentimes very anxious myself about using my voice because retaliation is real. And that’s not right.” Senator Lisa Murkowski

Trump seems to have built his empire through the bankruptcy court. He’s long understood that the refusal to pay is a robust negotiating scheme. Not much has changed with how he does business — in a most Trump-centric manner.

As part of tariff negotiations, Trump is looking to increase US oil and gas (LNG) exports. Based on his recent promises and executive order, he’s also committed to bringing back the coal industry — despite its higher economic and environmental costs compared to gas and renewables (in most cases).

Something that the administration seems unwilling to accept is that renewables contributed almost 90 percent of new electrical power in 2024 — with solar being the primary source. Trump forces continue to imply that solar, wind, geothermal, and battery storage are Rube Goldberg inventions rather than as increasingly used and economically competitive power sources.

These technologies are major contributors to reliable electric service in the US and around the world. There are hundreds of billions of dollars being invested. Renewables provided thirty percent of Texas’ 2023 electrical needs. The reality is much different than the Lone Star State’s governor, attorney general, and Republican legislative leaders would have you believe.

If ever one doubted the economic and security implications of reliance on foreign energy sources, those doubts have been put to rest in the case of Russia’s unprovoked aggression against Ukraine.

I continue to be amazed that throughout the entirety of Putin’s war on Ukraine, supplies of Russian oil and gas are being purchased by its enemies. I can’t imagine that the US or the UK would have bought steel from Hitler during WWII.

Economic, legal, and moral reasons exist for not trading with an enemy. Ukraine’s allies have been funding both the aggrieved and the aggressor since Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Yet, they have to have it. It’s the same as any pusher-junkie relationship.

Backed against the wall and ill-prepared for a cutoff in oil and gas supplies, Ukrainian allies are continuing to pay for both sides of the war. The situation is both absurd and understandable.

“Other countries will buy LNG from the US if they want to curry my favor and realize a reduction in the tariffs I’m charging them.”

Rather than a good faith negotiation between partners, Trump’s proffered price of $350 billion is more like an initial tithe. It’s at odds with what the European Union has proposed.

“We have offered zero-for-zero tariffs for industrial goods as we have successfully done with many other trading partners. Because Europe is always ready for a good deal.”

EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič has gone a step further, suggesting that the zero-for-zero deal could cover cars and all other industrial goods, such as chemicals, pharmaceuticals, rubber, and plastic machinery.

Trump views things through a real estate agent’s eyes. For him, everything is transactional, which means everything is for sale. The only thing the parties need to decide is at what price. Being transactional by nature and teaching, the reality for Trump is binary — something much of MAGA America seems also to suffer from.

A two-dimensional president in a multi-dimensional world is likely to misjudge things.

It’s telling that Trump doesn’t seem to understand why Greenlanders aren’t amenable to selling their country or why Gazans wouldn’t want their land made into a Trump-branded resort — or why EU leaders would prefer not to be beholden to Trump’s America.

When it comes to others buying US LNG, Trump’s gaseous notions have several flaws. There’s the question of alternatives. Although the US is already the world’s largest LNG exporter, it’s not the only supplier. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), “the United States exported 11.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d).”

Also, according to EIA, “Australia and Qatar — the world’s two next-largest LNG exporters — have remained relatively stable over the last five years (2020–24); their exports have ranged from 10.2 Bcf/d to 10.7 Bcf/d” Russia and Malaysia are the fourth- and fifth-largest LNG exporters.

Europe’s LNG demand fell by 19 percent in 2024. Demand for US supplies dropped by nearly 18 percent. According to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), the decline was a combination of more renewables and demand reduction, including through increased efficiency. The possibility that Trump’s trade war will lead to a global economic slowdown — if not outright recession — will further dampen demand.

Interestingly, EU imports of LNG sourced from Russia increased by 18 percent. According to the Institute, France, Spain, and Belgium sourced the most.

In addition to other suppliers, the EU, Japan, and other nations, including the US, are deploying alternate technologies — especially solar, wind, and batteries. Although not a major purchaser, China has already canceled its orders for American LNG, preferring to get it from Russia.

Other national leaders — whether on the right or left — include renewables in their “all of the above” energy strategies. Although supporting fossil fuels and clean alternatives appears contradictory, it reflects the march towards more secure and less environmentally hazardous energy supplies. For most of the non-MAGA world, the desire is for a sustainable environment powered by clean energy sources.

Trump’s refusal to recognize the role of renewables is America’s loss — both environmentally and economically. Why the president and the MAGA-minded are so willing to let others lead the inevitable energy transition and reap its profits is for Trump to answer.

According to Ira Joseph, an analyst with Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy: “European countries do not want to sign long-term LNG contracts. There is now political risk associated with signing long-term deals with the US that maybe we didn’t have before.”

Joseph isn’t the only analyst questioning the willingness of EU countries to trade the US for Russia, given the growing mistrust of America’s friendship. Arne Lohman, head of research at Denmark’s Global Risk Management, states clearly that:

“We are going from one problematic dependency — on Russian pipeline gas — to another, on US LNG.”

Trump’s recent actions have called into question the meaning of friendship and trust. Governments and economies need both to flourish.

Much like the relationship between an addict and supplier, the only way out is ending the dependence. Real energy security comes with reducing reliance on foreign fossil fuels through efficiency, solar, wind, ground source heat pumps, and etc., which are available to all countries.

This article is also published on Civil Notion. illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of leading Sustainability & Energy writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.