The research study seeks to propose novel policies for developing future sustainable green H2 hubs in Kazakhstan. In January 2023, this study’s author wrote a chapter about Kazakhstan’s hydrogen potential for the book Touching Hydrogen Future, which presents a series of 38 short stories about various countries where hydrogen is the norm. The main goal of the publication is to inspire and educate the future generation, encouraging them to welcome and actively contribute to the development of H2 technology (EGM, 2024).  The chapter “Hydrogen Silk Roads and Hubs” is based on current research, including the author’s research on coastal green H2 hubs (Anderson, 2022) and a childhood camel trekking memory. This memory extends into the future caravan travel experience throughout future coastal green H2 hubs in Kazakhstan in September 2049 (illuminem, 2023).  Since the book’s chapter described only a general vision for Kazakhstani green H2 hubs, this study specifically focuses on the green H2-water-food nexus to propose novel policies for the country’s future sustainable green H2 hubs. Specifically, the policy recommendations are informed by the author's concepts of the quasi-revolutionary transition governance model for developing US coastal green H2 hubs (Anderson, 2022) and nexus-integrated policies for Japan (Anderson, 2023).  

Quasi-revolutionary transition

Regarding the quasi-revolutionary transition governance model, its five components and recommendations anchor the vision for developing Kazakhstani coastal green H2 hubs:

1. Systemic: Engage with emerging dynamics across societal levels

The present concerns about climate change and energy security, affordability, and access dominate societal dynamics. Thus, Kazakhstani green H2 hub developers and proponents need to capitalize on these dynamics by generating momentum and gaining support through the government and industry to focus on the future energy transition involving green H2. As mentioned in Section 4, although blue H2 (SMR-CCUS) is Kazakhstan's most affordable short-mid-term clean H2 option, green might be a better mid-long-term (2030s and beyond) alternative when considering broader sustainability goals and water resource conservation. Additionally, Kazakhstani green H2 hub developers might benefit from executing an authentic stakeholder engagement about the green H2's costs, uses, and benefits. Overall, since the Kazakhstani dominant governance framework is based on the fossil fuels energy system, its energy transition will be a systemic, non-linear, and structural change over the decades.

2. Back-casting: taking the desired transition as a starting point

Creating future sustainable green H2 hubs represents the starting point for Kazakhstan. While revising the national H2 strategy, Kazakhstan should establish it as a part of national decarbonization and holistic sustainability strategies, integrating the concerns of green H2-water-food-nexus. IRENA (2024) warns that if an H2 strategy is developed in isolation and not aligned with programmatic documents, it may lead to duplication of efforts, fragmented decision-making, and missed opportunities in collaboration and synergy. Moreover, a lack of alignment with the overall government programs related to the green H2-water-food nexus may hinder policy coordination and coherence, causing difficulties in securing regulatory frameworks, vital investments, and stakeholder investments needed for successful implementation. Focusing resources on green H2 priority end-uses may also accelerate the integration of green H2 into sectors with the highest impact, reducing the resources and the overall time needed to achieve results. Moreover, Liebreich's (2023a) model "The Clean Hydrogen Ladder, Version 5.0" (Appendix, Figure 11) might help identify the prime uses for clean H2 deployment in the Kazakhstani economy. Since the clean H2 supply would be limited for decades, the analyst warns that the world should primarily invest in the sectors on the top rows of the clean H2 ladder, such as refining, steel, and chemicals (Liebreich, 2023a). Additional uses for clean H2 and its derivatives include shipping (ammonia or methanol), long-duration grid balancing, jet aviation (as e-fuel or power and bio to liquid, which uses green or pink H2 integrated with biological carbon (Liebreich, 2023a). 

3. Selective: focus on a transformative agency already engaging with the transition 

The Kazakhstani green H2 hub developers need to focus on all levels of government associated with the green H2-water-food nexus, such as the Ministry of Energy, Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation; Ministry of Agriculture, and, especially, its fisheries committee, and others, as transformative agencies engaged in Kazakhstani sustainable development. Despite the government's present attention to clean H2, the playing field for green H2 still must be developed to encourage the expansion of sustainable green H2 hubs. Close government coordination will also be vital in winning government funding and solving challenges related to the green H2-water-nexus. Lastly, the green H2 hub developers will benefit from building relationships with their counterparts abroad, especially the ones that consider green H2-water-food challenges.

4. Adaptive: experimenting toward multiple goals and transition pathways

Using van den Bergh's evolutionary-technical perspective in the quasi-revolutionary transition might prove helpful for Kazakhstani green H2 hub developers who seek the tradeoffs and synergies of multiple transition pathways and goals to react to uncertainties. For example, the current draft of Kazakhstani national H2 roadmap envisions export-oriented clean H2 hubs. UNECE (2023) describes logistical transportation and distance barriers to Europe compared to similar MENA projects and H2 export opportunities to China by road, rail, and pipeline transport. In contrast, instead of transporting green H2, the major RE producer CWP Global advises producing green H2-derived commodities, such as ammonia, sustainable aviation fuel, or green hot briquetted iron directly in regions with significant RE potential, since it is easier to transport H2-derived commodities than green H2 itself (Lim, 2024). Van den Bergh's theoretical perspective also stresses the economic diversity of sectors, actors, and technologies. For instance, US green H2 hub developers endorse the formation of a "broad-based regional ecosystem," enabling sustainable regional and social development (Anderson, 2022, p. 10). 

5. Learning-by-doing and doing-by-learning: ensure monitoring and reflexivity.          

Kazakhstani green H2 hub developers must swiftly address any challenges related to the green H2-water-food-nexus. Developing such a sustainable hub right the first time is cheaper and easier than fixing it later. Transition management can enable co-evolutionary processes by using specific visions, cycles of learning and adaptation, and transition trials (Anderson, 2022). For instance, UNIDO (2023) provides sustainable and adaptive strategies for various phases of developing green H2 industrial hubs, which can be helpful for Kazakhstani green H2 hub developers. Furthermore, US green H2 developers in California and Texas divide their projects into multiple phases to ensure monitoring and reflexivity of their efforts (Anderson, 2022). 

Nexus-integrated policies 

Concerning the usage of the concept of nexus-integrated policies for Japan, the author proposes the co-location of coastal green H2 hubs on the Caspian Sea and unused tertiary effluents from future modern wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) as a circular economy opportunity (Liu et al., 2024), which can also produce value-added products as by-products of electrolysis beneficial for the water industry, and, thus, the green H2-water-food nexus. However, as discussed in Section 4, the current consensus focuses on using desalinated water from the Caspian Sea water for Central Asian green H2 production. Nonetheless, this study's sustainability analysis proves that desalination needs to be only a potential bridge solution for water production in the Kazakhstani green H2-water-food nexus, even if new technologies might make desalination more efficient (Chandler, 2019). However, the current backlash, based on the green H2-water-food nexus challenges, in the proposed US green H2 hub (Corpus Christi, Texas) against desalination (Volcovici, 2024) underscores the necessity of seeking other water solutions for Kazakhstani sustainable green H2 hubs. 

Therefore, instead of investing in expensive (UQ-MQ, 2024) new desalination facilities specifically for Kazakhstani green H2 production, a more practical and sustainable strategy in the context of green H2-water-food-nexus should involve endorsing water reuse and adopting a circular economy model. From an economic standpoint, wastewater also uses less power than desalination. For instance, wastewater reuse uses 8,300 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of power for every million gallons of freshwater. Nearly twice as much power, about 15,000 kWh, is used by desalination for the same amount of freshwater (WEF, 2022). According to Australian experts, recycled water for green H2 production has the potential for cost advantages compared to freshwater ($2.75 kL-1) and desalinated water ($5.0 kL-1) with an estimated cost of ~ $0.70 kL-1 (UQ-MQ, 2024). Lastly, pure oxygen, ozone, and hydrogen peroxide, as co-products of green H2 production, possess significant potential in wastewater treatment. Namely, pure oxygen can substantially reinforce the efficiency of secondary wastewater treatment. Simultaneously, hydrogen peroxide and ozone can be utilized as potent oxidizing agents in tertiary water treatment, increasing the removal of contaminants (UQ-MQ, 2024). Simply put, the utilization of these by-products of electrolysis not only creates additional value for green H2 production but, ultimately, enhances the value of applying green H2-water-food nexus in Kazakhstani green H2 hubs investment considerations.