Considering Kazakhstani energy, water, and food situations, this research study presents innovative policies for developing its future sustainable green hydrogen (H2) hubs in the context of the global energy transition. Energy transitions have continued since 1709, from wood and other biomass to coal, oil, natural gas, and renewables. The current energy transition is vastly different from the previous ones since it faces the dilemma of reducing emissions during growing global energy consumption in the short timeframe of a quarter century. It is also complex since climate “net-zero” goals need to coexist with the priorities around energy security, affordability, and energy access (IEF, 2022). Furthermore, while achieving current human needs, energy transition must sustain those of future generations and preserve the environment, ensuring sustainable development (Compin, 2023). 

Energy, water, and food are vital for sustainable development, poverty reduction, and human well-being. The demand for energy, freshwater, and food is projected to increase substantially based on economic development, population growth, climate change, urbanization, resource degradation and scarcity, and growing demand for food and diversified diets. Agriculture is currently the most significant water user, accounting for 70% of global freshwater withdrawals. Water is used along the entire agro-food supply chain and for agricultural production, and it is utilized to produce, transport, and use different forms of energy. At the same time, energy is required for extracting, pumping, lifting, collecting, transporting, and treating water along with producing, transporting, and distributing food. The food production and supply chain absorb nearly 30% of global energy. Since there are clear interactions between energy, water, and food that may result in trade-offs or synergies between different sectors, the Water-Energy-Food Nexus framework (Figure 1, Appendix) is a valuable attempt to balance various uses of ecosystem resources (UN, 2014), primarily as related to devising strategies for Kazakhstan during its sustainable energy transition.  

The energy transition is vital to decarbonizing Kazakhstan's economy. The country also needs this transition to help its economic diversification and economic diplomacy. More importantly, Kazakhstan may pay for the energy transition with its fossil fuels revenues (Narayanan, 2024). Historically, Kazakhstan has been known as Central Asia's largest energy producer and fossil fuels exporter. Nearly 70% of its electricity is generated from aging coal-fired power plants (Figure 2, Appendix), making the country a significant greenhouse gas emitter (CT, 2023).  In 2020, Kazakhstani oil and gas industries and related sectors represented 17% of gross domestic product (GDP), with oil providing most of the export earnings and serving as the primary source of government revenue (IEA, 2022). The country also has vast renewable energy (RE) potential, although the current share of the total energy supply is low, varying between 1% and 2%. As of 2020, the RE share in electricity generation was as follows: hydropower (8.7%), wind (1.3%), and solar (0.9%) (IEA, 2022). The country has no operating nuclear power plants, although the National Nuclear Center was established in the 1990s, and research reactors have been built since the mid-1970s (UNECE, 2023a). As a uranium-producing and exporting country, Kazakhstan now considers nuclear energy, especially small modular reactors (SMRs), an essential decarbonization tool (WNN, 2024). Lastly, clean H2 is emerging as a significant opportunity for Kazakhstan in the energy transition. Clean H2 consists of blue, green, and pink H2 (Lazard, 2023), shown in Figure 3 (Appendix). BP Outlook 2024 notes that while blue H2 starts with a cost advantage relative to green H2, by 2050, around 60% of clean hydrogen in its Net-Zero scenario will take the form of green H2 (Figure 4, Appendix). While the low-carbon H2 is not a panacea for energy transition, it can enable and complement other decarbonization pathways, namely, electrification, energy efficiency measures, and biomass-based fuels (Hydrogen Council, 2021). This study specifically focuses on the green H2-water-food-nexus to propose novel policies for future sustainable green H2 hubs in Kazakhstan.

The country must also consider its water and food situations during its energy transition.

Kazakhstan ranks eighth regarding water scarcity among Asian countries (ITA, 2022). Global climate change has made its water resources even scarcer. The country’s current total water resources are estimated at 549 km3, coming from lakes (35%), rivers (18%), reservoirs (18%), glaciers (18%), and groundwater (11%). The primary demand sectors are agriculture (65%), industry and the energy sector (24%), additional economic activities (10%), and household needs (6%) (Figures 5-6, Appendix). The efficiency in the water sector is low, with losses accounting for 45% of total water use. Urbanization, future population, and fast GDP growth likely increase energy, water, and food demand (Mussaev et al., 2024; Karatayev et al., 2017). President Tokaev, in his September 2022 State of the Nation address, warned about the lack of water resources as a crucial barrier to sustainable development and tasked its government with devising a three-year project to improve the water sector (World Bank, 2023). On July 30, 2024, President Tokayev signed a decree approving Kazakhstan’s National Development Plan until 2029, aiming to accelerate progress toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (Astana Times, 2024).

 Food production is one of Kazakhstan's most important economic sectors and depends on water availability. Due to high water inefficiencies, nearly two-thirds of water withdrawals for the agricultural sector are lost during transport. Following its independence in 1991, the country experienced a significant decrease in agricultural output and a decline in the households' food security. However, since 2000, its agricultural production has steadily grown, with an overall increase of nearly 62%. Kazakhstan is one of the largest global wheat producers and exporters, with significant exports of barley flax seeds, sunflower oil, and cotton fiber (Karatayev et al., 2017; Lo, 2024). Lastly, fishing in Kazakhstan is carried in the coastal zone of the Caspian Sea, inland waters (lakes and reservoirs), and the rivers Ural and Kigach. Although in the 1990s, commercial fish farming dropped to almost zero, Kazakhstan is currently paying great attention to the development of its aquaculture. For example, the state supports reproductive fish farming to stock natural water bodies such as the Ural River and the Caspian Sea (Kulikov & Assylbekova, 2020). 

The paper is organized into six primary sections. After an introduction in Section 1, Section 2 describes the qualitative methods used in the study. Section 3 briefly evaluates Kazakhstani clean H2 development. Section 4 examines the current state of Kazakhstan’s transboundary water issues and internal wastewater opportunities. Section 5 proposes the innovative policies for its future sustainable green H2 hubs. Section 6 concludes and emphasizes the importance of considering green H2-water-nexus in Kazakhstani sustainable energy transition. The following section describes the methodology used in the research study.