· 7 min read
Introduction
This introduction and overview is the first of a seven part series exploring the Global ESGT (environment, society, governance and technology) Megatrends for 2025-2026. This first article explores the meaning, reason and actionable nature of understanding the 5 ESGT Megatrends — underscoring the need for decision-makers to gain situational awareness of multiyear, global phenomena in tech disruption, geopolitical tectonics, leadership trust, socioecological risk and the future of capitalism. The next 5 articles in this series will explore each of these megatrends in greater detail with a forward-looking view to prepare us for the next 1-2 years. The final and seventh article will provide a Global ESGT Leadership Blueprint — a summary of key actionable take-aways from the exploration of the 5 megatrends to prepare decision-makers to be focused, resilient and successful in navigating the coming turbulence and opportunity.
Background
As some of my readers know, I have been analysing multi-year Global Megatrends around the topics of environment, society, governance and technology (what I coined “ESGT” in my 2020 book Gloom to Boom and summarised in this World Economic Forum Agenda piece) for a few years, memorialised in the ESGT Megatrends Manuals published with Diplomatic Courier between 2021-2024.
The purpose of these annual analyses is to provide decision makers, leaders and other concerned global citizens with a succinct framework to understand and adopt situational awareness to navigate our super complex, information heavy and disinformation ridden world and to make more contextualised decisions. The Global ESGT Megatrends are focused on where we are on five dimensions with an emphasis on preparing for what’s next. The Global ESGT Megatrends take a forward-looking view — the next 1-2 years — not so much for purposes of predicting but for purposes of becoming more ready and more resilient.
Last year, I took a hiatus from writing an annual ESGT Megatrends report for 2024-2025 because I was writing a new book – Governing Pandora: Leading in the Age of Generative AI and Exponential Technology for Georgetown University Press (due in early 2026). However, I didn’t take a complete vacation from deploying my framework. Indeed, in the first Chapter of the book titled “The Global Tech Megascape: The Situational Awareness Imperative” I apply a tech lens to the Global ESGT Megatrends framework. See Table 1 from the as yet unpublished book below for a sneak preview.
Table 1 - The Global Tech Megascape
Source: A. Bonime-Blanc. Governing Pandora: Leading in the Age of Generative AI and Exponential Technology. Georgetown University Press. Forthcoming February 2026
What are the “Global ESGT Megatrends” and why should we care?
Before I introduce the specific Global ESGT Megatrends for 2025-2026, let’s look at what they are and why they’re important to understand. In today’s super complex world it is critically important for decision-makers, board members, managers, functional experts and other operators in any sector – business, government, NGO, international institutions – to become situationally aware of the larger scale ESGT Megatrends taking place. In essence, it’s about knowing what the key big-picture, multi-year trends that surround us and may be pertinent to our specific organisational footprint and outlook are, and then translating the larger multi-year megatrends into actionable takeaways, tactics and strategic imperatives.
While the Global ESGT Megatrends are about multiyear developments and scoping out what might happen over the coming 1-2 years, I am not in the prediction game – I’m in the preparation game. No one can really predict what will happen but we can make educated guesses about trends and megatrends sufficient to sensitise us to what we need to do to be prepared – what we need for situational awareness to move forward with confidence, humility and resilience.
The Global ESGT Megatrends have always been about three things:
• Situational Awareness. The megatrends analysis provides a big picture snapshot of five of the biggest multi-year transformations taking place in real time. Whether you work globally, nationally, or locally, understanding the megatrends provides critical situational awareness to help you make smarter decisions in our fast-moving, complex, interconnected world
• Sustainability and resilience. Under each megatrend, several ESGT “trends” are identified designed to help leaders and their organisations maintain or achieve more sustainable and resilient solutions
• Futureproofing. Each megatrend and the overall analysis culminate in Leadership “To Do’s” and a “Leadership ESGT Futureproofing Blueprint”—suggesting actionable solutions leaders should consider for futureproofing their organisations
Table 2 below summarises what each category of megatrend focuses on, why it is important for leaders to think about and act on and what the possible stakes are for key stakeholders.
Table 2 - Defining the ESGT Megatrends
Source: A. Bonime-Blanc, The ESGT Megatrends Manual 2023-2024, Diplomatic Courier 2023
Evolution of the “Global ESGT Megatrends” since 2020 and introduction of the megatrend landscape for 2025-2026
In today’s rapidly changing, increasingly daunting, sometimes exhilarating world, gaining situational awareness of the big multiyear megatrends is absolutely central to decision-making success — whether you are a businessperson, policymaker, board member, running an NGO or a government official. We need leaders, deciders and influencers to be situationally aware. We need our leaders to understand global megatrends. Table 3 shows the names of the 2025-2026 megatrends which we will explore in great detail in each of the next 5 articles of this series.
Source: Author
For context, let’s now look at the backdrop of the evolution of the 5 Global ESGT Megatrends over the past 5 years (see Table 4):
Table 4
• On geopolitical tectonics: we had lived through a relatively balanced international geopolitical era pre-Russian invasion of Ukraine (2022) to one that has recently become increasingly fraught with multiple global tensions and one that now, with the advent of the Trump Administration, has become outright perilous and deeply dangerous. These larger geopolitical tectonic shifts have deep implications and interconnection with the continuing decline of democracy worldwide and the rise of an even more complex world in which organisations - including businesses- must navigate. I will explore the implications of this coming year’s “Geopolitical Tectonic Shifts Rupturing” megatrend in the next article of this series
• On leadership trust: Trust by stakeholders worldwide in their principal leaders and institutions has not been high since we started looking at these megatrends. However, the trajectory is not hopeful as trust in political, business, NGO and media leaders and institutions has continued to decline especially in advanced democracies where seriously malignant developments are taking place in some (most notably the US). However, there are signs of hope so we’re calling it a leadership trust “recession” and not a depression… for now. We will explore the meaning of “Leadership Trust in Recession” in the second part of this series
• On tech disruption: We have gone from a super productive, creative, exponential set of developments and changes to what I am characterising for the coming year not only as the “ungovernability of exponential technologies” (generative AI, advanced automation, advanced material, biotech), but their unfettered continuing development as guardrails — internationally — are becoming less apparent and potentially less effective despite the multitude of efforts underway. I will explore the implications of this third megatrend “Exponential Technology Unfettered” in the third article in this series
• On socioecological risk: I have been examining the complex poly-crises and poly-risks surrounding life on earth — meaning climate, biodiversity and society — as a grouping since these three legs of the stool represent life on earth. The risks and polyrisks as well as the crises and polycrises we are experiencing that threaten life on earth may be heading in a very dangerous and uncontrollable place. For instance, consider the tipping points climate scientists have begun to ring the alarm bells on. This megatrend “Socioecological Polyrisk & Tipping Points Rising” will be explored in the fifth article in this series
• On the future of capitalism: The primary form of economics globally is undergoing some massive shifts from what we were considering the rise of ESG and stakeholder capitalism only 5 years ago to a much more confusing, polarised and politicised debate today. Because of the weaponisation of ESG in some major markets (notably the US), we find ourselves at a turning point of sorts where ESG and sustainability aren’t going away but they are going underground. We explore that phenomenon in “Stakeholder Capitalism Metamorphosing” — the 6th article of this series
I hope this overview is helpful to understanding the context of the 5 Global ESGT Megatrends for 2025-2026. In the second article in this series, I will cover the first Global ESGT Megatrend for 2025-2026 — Geopolitical Tectonic Shifts Rupturing — in greater detail.
illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of leading Sustainability & Energy writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.
