· 3 min read
The numbers don’t stack up
The newly announced EU–US trade agreement includes a striking figure: 250 billion dollars per year in energy purchases from the United States, over three years. On the surface, this appears to be a significant reorientation of European energy policy. In reality, it simply does not add up.
In 2024, total EU imports of U.S. crude oil, liquefied natural gas, and other fuels hovered between 64 and 76 billion dollars. Total U.S. energy exports to the world were around 318 billion dollars. For the EU alone to purchase 250 billion annually would mean absorbing nearly the entire U.S. export capacity. Not only is this economically unrealistic, but it is also physically impossible. Most U.S. exports are already tied up in multi-year contracts with countries in Asia and Latin America. Expanding LNG terminals and shipping capacity on both sides of the Atlantic would take years, not months.
What it really means
More importantly, the agreement is not a binding procurement contract. The European Commission cannot purchase energy itself, it can only coordinate national and corporate behavior. Voluntary mechanisms such as AggregateEU, which seeks to pool demand across EU member states, remain limited in scope and largely untested at the required scale.
In other words, this is not a pipeline of guaranteed trade. It is a message.
A clever political play
That message, however, may serve a strategic purpose. With the U.S. administration threatening steep import tariffs on key EU exports, this promise of large-scale energy purchases provides a symbolic counteroffer. It appeases American producers and politicians without requiring immediate financial outlay or structural reform on the European side.
It also avoids open confrontation. Rather than fighting tariffs with tariffs, the EU offers energy dollars, real or imagined, as a peace offering. It is, in many ways, a smart maneuver: it buys time, calms transatlantic tensions, and limits the economic damage that could arise from an escalating trade dispute.
The real opportunity cost
But the longer-term picture is less flattering. If taken seriously, and if ever implemented, this deal would signal a doubling down on fossil fuel imports at a time when Europe should be accelerating its transition away from them. It underscores the EU’s reliance on a narrow set of exporting countries for energy security, when the real challenge is to reduce that dependence altogether.
Massive investments are needed in renewables, in grid modernization, in energy storage, and in cross-border infrastructure that enables a clean and resilient energy system. The capital hypothetically committed to fossil imports would be far better spent building the conditions for lasting independence and decarbonization.
Conclusion
The EU–US energy purchase deal may look like a bold geopolitical realignment, but in practice it is symbolic at best and misleading at worst. The numbers are unworkable, the mechanisms are toothless, and the strategic direction is backward-looking. Still, as a short-term gesture to manage a difficult diplomatic moment, it is tactically effective.
Yet Europe cannot afford to keep playing short-term games with long-term stakes. Energy independence will not come from clever trade diplomacy, but from focused, strategic investment at home. That is where the real work lies.
illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of leading Sustainability & Energy writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.
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