Who are the economic winners and losers of the US-Israel war on Iran?

illuminem summarises for you the essential news of the day, reviewed by our editorial team. Read the full piece on Al Jazeera or enjoy below:

🗞️ Driving the news: Six months into the US-Israel war on Iran, disruption to global energy markets is creating stark economic winners and losers, boosting profits for oil majors, banks and defence companies while raising costs for airlines, carmakers, governments and vulnerable households

🔭 The context: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure have pushed oil prices higher, lifting second-quarter profits to $14.5bn at ExxonMobil, $12bn at Chevron and $33.4bn at Saudi Aramco
• Defence spending has also surged, including a $22.9bn Pentagon agreement with RTX for Tomahawk missiles and a $59bn deal with Lockheed Martin to expand Patriot interceptor production
• Meanwhile, higher fuel, fertiliser and transport costs are feeding through to food prices, aviation losses and manufacturing expenses

🌍 Why it matters: The conflict is reshaping the economics of the energy transition in contradictory ways, strengthening the case for renewables while simultaneously increasing coal use as countries seek cheaper alternatives to constrained oil and gas supplies
• At least 26 countries and regions have announced new clean-energy measures in response to the crisis, while the IEA expects electric vehicles to reach a record 29% of global vehicle sales in 2026
• Yet rising coal demand shows that energy-security pressures can also slow decarbonisation when governments prioritise affordability and supply

⏭️ What’s next: The longer disruption through the Strait of Hormuz persists, the greater the pressure on governments to balance energy security, inflation and food affordability against climate goals, while industries exposed to fuel and raw-material costs face continued volatility

📈 One stat: The US Defense Secretary estimated the direct cost of the war at $37.5bn by late July, while one Harvard expert argues total long-term budgetary costs could eventually approach $1tn

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