What to know about the predictions for a potentially record-breaking El Nino

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🗞️ Driving the news: Scientists are warning that a potentially record-breaking El Niño could develop this year, raising the risk of unprecedented heatwaves, floods, droughts and other extreme weather events worldwide

🔭 The context: El Niño is a natural warming cycle in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that disrupts global weather patterns every two to seven years
• Current models show unusually intense subsurface heat building in the Pacific, leading some scientists to warn of a possible “super El Niño”
• The World Meteorological Organization says confidence is high that the event will intensify over the coming months

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: A powerful El Niño on top of human-driven climate change could amplify global warming, worsen droughts in vulnerable regions like the Amazon, intensify wildfires and marine heatwaves, and push global temperatures to new records
• Scientists warn it may expose ecosystems and societies to climate extremes beyond modern historical experience

⏭️ What’s next: Researchers are poised to closely monitor Pacific Ocean temperatures through 2026 as governments prepare for possible disruptions to agriculture, water systems, disaster response and public health

💬 One quote: “All indicators are, at this point, that the next year is going to be a pretty wild year from a global climate perspective.” — Daniel Swain, California Institute for Water Resources

📈 One stat: El Niño events typically occur every 2 to 7 years and usually last between 9 and 12 months

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