UN-backed forest carbon program may reward the wrong countries, study finds

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🗞️ Driving the news: A new study from Yale University warns that a major UN-backed forest carbon mechanism could reward countries that were already reducing deforestation, while discouraging participation from regions where forest loss is still rising

🔭 The context: The research, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, examines jurisdictional REDD+ programs, which issue carbon credits to governments that reduce deforestation across entire regions
• These programs were designed as a more credible alternative to project-based forest credits, but researchers argue their baseline calculations may create unintended incentives

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: Forest protection is one of the most powerful tools for climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation
• If carbon credit systems misallocate incentives, billions of dollars intended to protect forests could flow to areas where deforestation was already declining, leaving the most threatened ecosystems without adequate support

⏭️ What’s next: Researchers suggest introducing dynamic baselines that are calculated after the crediting period using deforestation trends in comparable regions
• This approach could reduce manipulation risks and strengthen credibility as jurisdictional programs expand through initiatives such as the LEAF Coalition

💬 One quote: “There’s billions of dollars of commitments, but there hasn’t been that much evaluation of what those credits are going to look like,” - Luke Sanford

📈 One stat: The jurisdictional forest credit registry ART TREES already has more than $3 billion in committed credit purchases from companies including Amazon, Walmart and Salesforce

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