UN climate talks start in the year of disasters, energy price shocks and fast rising temperatures

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🗞️ Driving the news: COP31 opens in Antalya, Türkiye, against a backdrop of escalating climate disasters, energy price shocks and accelerating global warming
• Nearly 200 countries are expected to discuss how to turn previous climate pledges into action, but geopolitical tensions, fossil fuel dependence and disagreements over climate finance are clouding prospects for progress

🔭 The context: Global warming has reached approximately 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, with the world projected to reach around 2.6°C by the end of the century under current trajectories
• October 2026 was the hottest October on record, and the year is expected to become the second to exceed the 1.5°C threshold
• Meanwhile, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have intensified energy insecurity, while the US absence from negotiations creates a significant gap in climate finance and diplomatic leadership
• Fossil fuel subsidies are estimated to reach $1.1 trillion globally this year

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: The summit comes as extreme heat, floods, droughts and wildfires demonstrate the growing costs of climate change
• Despite the rapid expansion of cheaper renewable energy, continued investment in fossil fuels and rising energy demand are slowing the transition
• Progress will depend on translating existing commitments into emissions cuts while financing adaptation in vulnerable countries

⏭️ What’s next: Negotiators are expected to focus on implementing previous commitments, transitioning away from fossil fuels and mobilising finance for developing economies
• Türkiye is promoting a target to increase electricity's share of global energy use from 21% to 35% by 2035, preferably through renewable power
• Brazil's voluntary fossil fuel transition roadmap could also provide a framework for national action, while debates over subsidies and climate finance are expected to remain contentious

💬 One quote: “The science has become more alarming, but yet politically we seem to be negotiating how much failure we are prepared to tolerate,” - Barbados youth climate activist Ashley Lashley

📈 One stat: The estimated value of global fossil fuel subsidies in 2026 is $1.1 trillion, highlighting the scale of public support still flowing to the main source of human-driven climate change

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