Think it’s hot now? The next five years will smash records, UN says
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🗞️ Driving the news: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) projects that the next five years are likely to exceed the 1.5°C warming threshold set by the Paris Agreement, with a 75% probability for the global average temperature to surpass pre-industrial levels
• Individual years could also break the record for the hottest year, with 2027 expected to exceed 2024’s record
🔭 The context: The projections combine around 200 computer simulations from 13 climate models worldwide, highlighting accelerating warming trends
• A strong El Niño is expected to amplify global temperatures through 2028, while the Arctic is warming 3.5 times faster than the global average due to ice and snow loss
🌍 Why it matters for the planet: Exceeding 1.5°C will intensify extreme weather events, including heatwaves, droughts, floods, and wildfires
• Amazon drying could reduce its carbon absorption and increase fire risks, while global food systems and water resources face mounting stress
• Warming of the Arctic further amplifies climate feedback loops, accelerating ice melt and sea-level rise
⏭️ What’s next: The report underscores the urgent need for deep emissions reductions
• Policymakers, city planners, and agricultural systems are urged to prepare for more extreme conditions, while global climate mitigation efforts remain insufficient to prevent these near-term impacts
💬 One quote: “Despite progress, global heating is still outpacing global efforts to contain it… every nation is already paying a huge price from this global climate crisis.” — UN Climate Chief Simon Stiell
📈 One stat: Arctic winters from 2026–2030 are projected to average 2.8°C (5.1°F) warmer than the 2020–2025 period
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