The map that predicts agricultural decline from climate change

illuminem summarises for you the essential news of the day, reviewed by our editorial team. Read the full piece on Euronews or enjoy below:

🗞️ Driving the news: A research team from Spain’s National Research Council (CSIC) has developed CADI (Climate-Induced Agricultural Decline Index), an interactive platform that maps how climate change could reduce agricultural productivity worldwide by 2100
• The tool forecasts impacts at a 9.3 km grid resolution, showing where farmland is most vulnerable

🔭 The context: CADI compares agricultural yields under different climate scenarios while keeping current crops and farming patterns unchanged, isolating the effect of climate change alone
• The model uses historical agricultural data from the FAO, climate records from the Copernicus programme and IPCC climate scenarios to project future productivity changes

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: Food systems are among the sectors most exposed to climate disruption
• Declining agricultural productivity could increase food insecurity, intensify pressure on land and water resources, and disproportionately affect countries that have contributed least to historical greenhouse gas emissions

⏭️ What’s next: The researchers say CADI can help governments identify vulnerable regions early and target adaptation measures, including crop changes, technology investments, relocation of production and financial support for affected communities

💬 One quote: “CADI makes it possible to identify in advance which areas will need support to adapt.”

📈 One stat: One in six of the world’s croplands has already lost more than 10% of its potential productivity over the past two decades compared with the previous two.

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