Scientists predict 2026 hottest year on record as climate talks begin

🔦 Navigate COP31 unmissable events with our Insider's Guide

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🗞️ Driving the news: Scientists warn that 2026 is on course to become the hottest year on record, as climate change and a powerful El Niño combine to push global temperatures higher
• Berkeley Earth estimates a 95% probability that the year will surpass the previous record set in 2024
• The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) offers a more cautious forecast, placing 2026 among the four warmest years recorded
• The warning comes as world leaders gather in Antalya, Türkiye, for COP31, where negotiations must address both emissions reductions and adaptation to increasingly severe climate impacts

🔭 The context: October 2026 was confirmed as the hottest October on record
• An unusually strong El Niño is expected to continue into 2027, further raising temperatures
• It does not create additional heat, but releases heat stored in an already exceptionally warm ocean
• The consequences are becoming increasingly visible, from wildfires across Europe and Indonesia to glacier collapse in Nepal
• The world remains on a trajectory towards approximately 2.8°C of warming by the end of the century, well beyond the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C ambition

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: Record temperatures intensify pressure on ecosystems, water supplies, food systems and human safety
• Governments increasingly face a dual challenge: cutting the fossil-fuel emissions driving global warming while preparing communities for heatwaves, droughts, wildfires and floods

⏭️ What’s next: COP31 negotiations will test whether countries can turn existing climate commitments into practical action
• Türkiye is pushing for a new electrification goal and reductions in waste, but disagreement is expected over whether gas can count towards electrification targets
• The EU insists that progress must rely on clean energy, while some countries continue to advocate gas as a transition fuel
• The UK, meanwhile, is reluctant to introduce new targets, favouring implementation of existing agreements
• Delegates are also expected to discuss adaptation funding, fossil-fuel transition commitments and the growing energy and water demands of AI data centres. 

💬 One quote: “We're designed for a climate of the 20th century that we don't live in any longer, so it's going to change all aspects of our lives.” — Stephen Belcher, Chief Scientist at the UK Met Office

📈 One stat: 95% — Berkeley Earth's estimated probability that 2026 will surpass the previous global temperature record set in 2024.

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