Prepare for El Niño, UN warns - it could be the strongest in decades

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🗞️ Driving the news: The UN’s World Meteorological Organization has warned that a new El Niño event is likely to develop within weeks and could become one of the strongest on record, potentially amplifying extreme weather worldwide on top of ongoing human-driven climate change.

🔭 The context: El Niño occurs when unusually warm waters spread across the tropical Pacific Ocean, altering global weather patterns
• Ocean temperatures in the key Niño monitoring region have risen rapidly since early 2026, with a large subsurface pool of exceptionally warm water moving eastward across the Pacific
• Forecast models suggest the event could reach “super El Niño” strength, a category only seen a handful of times since 1950, including the major events of 1982–83 and 2015–16
• Strong El Niño events have historically been associated with droughts, wildfires, floods, crop failures, and major economic disruptions across multiple continents

🌍 Why it matters: The combination of a powerful El Niño and climate change could intensify weather extremes and push global temperatures to new records
• Drier conditions are expected in regions including Australia, parts of Southeast Asia, India, and the Amazon, increasing wildfire and drought risks
• Agricultural disruptions could contribute to food insecurity, higher food prices, and economic losses across global supply chains
• Climate scientists warn that 2027 is now increasingly likely to become the warmest year ever recorded globally

⏭️ What’s next: Scientists will closely monitor Pacific Ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions through the remainder of 2026
• The event is expected to strengthen toward a likely peak around late 2026
• Governments and humanitarian agencies are preparing for potential impacts on agriculture, water supplies, disaster response, and public health
• Researchers emphasize that while El Niño temporarily boosts temperatures, the underlying driver of long-term warming remains greenhouse gas emissions

📈 One stat: Current forecast models project El Niño conditions could peak at roughly 2.7°C above average in the central Pacific, with some forecasts reaching 3.3°C, levels associated with the strongest events ever observed.

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