New EU draft rules could disqualify almost all existing CORSIA Phase 1 credits

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🗞️ Driving the news: The European Commission is considering draft rules that could disqualify nearly all existing carbon credits eligible under CORSIA Phase 1, triggering concerns of a major supply shock in aviation carbon markets

🔭 The context: The proposal would exclude credits from high forest, low deforestation (HFLD) projects and tighten rules on biomass-based methodologies
• Critics argue they lack sufficient “additional” climate impact
• As a result, none of the current ~33 million eligible credits would comply, with only about 10% potentially recoverable through adjustments
• The move aligns with stricter integrity standards under the Paris Agreement Article 6.4, but comes amid already weak demand and procurement delays by airlines

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: The shift signals a decisive move toward higher-quality carbon credits, prioritizing real emissions reductions over avoided emissions or baseline preservation
• While this could strengthen environmental integrity, it risks short-term market disruption and may accelerate reliance on carbon removal technologies like biochar and direct air capture to meet aviation decarbonization goals

⏭️ What’s next: If adopted, airlines may face immediate credit shortages, pushing prices higher and reshaping procurement strategies
• Future phases of CORSIA (2027–2035) could further restrict eligibility to Article 6.4 credits, accelerating the transition toward high-integrity and durable carbon removal markets

💬 One quote: “Crediting the mere existence of stocks does not contribute to addressing climate change.” — European Commission

📈 One stat: Only ~10% of existing CORSIA Phase 1 credits could remain eligible under the proposed rules

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