How El Niño will drive up the cost of foods you love — and some critical staples

illuminem summarises for you the essential news of the day, reviewed by our editorial team. Read the full piece on CNN or enjoy below:

🗞️ Driving the news: A near-record-strong El Niño is expected to push up prices for coffee, chocolate, palm oil and other tropical commodities as it disrupts harvests in key producing regions
• The effects are arriving alongside existing pressures from geopolitical tensions, trade barriers, fuel costs and fertilizer shortages

🔭 The context: Brazil and Vietnam’s coffee sectors, Indonesia’s palm-oil production and crops across Africa are particularly exposed
• India’s rice harvest and Australia’s wheat crop are already facing weaker forecasts, while El Niño-related drought and flooding could create localized food-supply crises, especially in eastern and southern Africa

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: The event shows how climate variability can translate into food insecurity and higher costs, with poorer countries often having fewer resources to absorb agricultural shocks
• Climate change is also increasing the risks associated with extreme heat and weather, although the specific contribution of climate change to this El Niño event remains an active area of research

⏭️ What’s next: El Niño is forecast to peak in autumn and winter, meaning some price effects could persist into 2027 and beyond
• How severe they become will depend not only on weather conditions but also on trade policies, export restrictions and the continuation of geopolitical disruptions

💬 One quote: “Food prices almost always go up a bit with El Niño events, and they go up more the more serious the El Niño and the worse the timing,” - Cornell food economist Christopher Barrett.

📈 One stat: ~20% — the potential increase in maize prices in eastern and southern Africa cited by Kansas State agricultural economist Nelson Villoria under severe El Niño impacts

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