How can Europe decarbonise without sacrificing economic development? New study offers roadmap

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🗞️ Driving the news: Researchers from the CMCC Foundation, Politecnico di Milano and TU Berlin modelled European steel, cement and chemical production through 2050
• They found the cheapest route to deep decarbonisation involves importing the most energy-intensive materials — ammonia, methanol and hot-briquetted iron — while keeping later manufacturing stages in existing European factories

🔭 The context: Under a 90% emissions cut by 2040, most steel, ammonia and methanol would be made with green hydrogen, with steelmakers also using recycled scrap and electrification
• Cement is harder, since the process emits CO2 regardless of energy source; capture could reduce that, though critics say it remains unproven at scale
• Importing would cut Europe's green hydrogen needs by around 25% by 2050

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: Producing every energy-intensive material at home would cost governments around €235 billion a year in subsidy, spending that secures domestic capacity, not lower emissions
• Importing green iron and ammonia from regions with cheap renewables cuts that bill
• Unlike oil and gas arriving through fixed pipelines from a few suppliers, these supply chains can be decarbonised progressively as production cleans up

⏭️ What's next: Costs peak around 2040, when industry needs major infrastructure and equipment investment, falling by 2050 though Europe would remain disadvantaged against regions with cheaper renewables
• The model excludes the cost of relocating factories, building infrastructure and untangling supply chains, and does not account for wars or pandemics disrupting trade

💬 One quote: "Europe should be practical about its capacity to expand its heavy industry. It should prioritise decarbonisation and the retention of existing industrial capacity, supported by targeted, time-limited public support and smart use of green imports" — Massimo Tavoni, co-author and institute director, CMCC Foundation

📈 One stat: Around €235 billion a year in subsidy required to keep all energy-intensive production in Europe

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