Evidence builds showing climate change could be intensifying El Niño events

illuminem summarises for you the essential news of the day, reviewed by our editorial team. Read the full piece on Mongabay or enjoy below:

🗞️ Driving the news: A growing body of evidence suggests climate change may be making El Niño events more intense, although scientists stress that the link is not yet settled
• A new analysis of Galápagos coral records found El Niño intensity was 36.5% higher over the past four decades than during the pre-industrial period

🔭 The context: Researchers are combining coral, tree-ring and climate-model evidence to understand how warming affects El Niño
• Some models project stronger and more frequent extreme events, while others show limited effects or even future weakening
• Scientists therefore caution against attributing any single El Niño directly to climate change

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: Stronger El Niños can amplify drought, flooding, heat, wildfires and ecosystem disruption around the world
• A warmer atmosphere can also intensify the hydrological swings associated with El Niño, potentially increasing both extreme rainfall and drought risks

⏭️ What’s next: The El Niño developing in 2026 is forecast to peak between October and December and could rank among the strongest recorded
• Scientists are prepared to closely monitor the event while continuing to test whether recent intensification represents a climate-driven trend or natural variability

💬 One quote: Climate scientist Mark Cane told Mongabay: “The evidence is accumulating that climate change makes for more powerful El Niños”

📈 One stat: 36.5% — the increase in El Niño intensity identified in the Galápagos coral record over the last 40 years

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