As El Niño develops, this city is seeing beach weather — during winter

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🗞️ Driving the news: Peru is experiencing unusually warm winter conditions along its Pacific coast as a strong El Niño develops
• Sea surface temperatures in Lima are nearly 10°F above average, while Paita has seen a 14.2°F increase, disrupting local weather and coastal ecosystems

🔭 The context: This wave of warmth is linked to a subsurface Kelvin wave that began in December and accelerated in April, echoing patterns observed in past super El Niños, including 1997
• The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) projects central Pacific temperatures could rise 3.5°C by November, potentially surpassing previous records from 2015 and 1877

🌍 Why it matters for the planet and people: The unusually warm waters are already stressing marine ecosystems, threatening fish populations like industrial anchovy stocks, altering oceanic nutrient cycles, and increasing coastal flooding risk
• Globally, El Niño’s intensification could disrupt precipitation patterns, enhance droughts in South America, northern Africa, India, Indonesia, and Australia, and increase extreme heat events in oceans and land surfaces, affecting biodiversity, soil moisture, and water resources

⏭️ What’s next: Authorities and communities in Peru are urged to prepare for potential catastrophic rainfall during the rainy season from December to April
• Long-term monitoring, early warning systems, and climate adaptation planning are critical to minimize socio-economic impacts

💬 One quote: “A strong or very strong El Niño Costero is a matter of major importance for national security [for Peru].” – Abraham Levy, meteorological consultant

📈 One stat: Central Pacific sea temperatures could rise 3.5°C (6.3°F) above average by November 2026, according to ECMWF forecasts

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