An agreement on the Strait of Hormuz is taking shape – but not one Trump wants

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🗞️ Driving the news: A potential agreement over the Strait of Hormuz is emerging between Iran and Oman, but the shape of the deal appears to differ significantly from what the US administration is seeking
• President Donald Trump said a deal could be reached within days
• However, Iranian officials have stressed that negotiations are focused on a temporary arrangement giving Tehran a central role in managing security and shipping routes through the strategic waterway

🔭 The context: The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints, carrying around 20% of global oil and gas supplies
• The conflict between Iran and the US has disrupted shipping through the strait, contributing to higher energy prices and tighter fuel markets
• Iran and Oman are reportedly discussing a “middle corridor” combining existing northern and southern routes, with Iran retaining responsibility for maritime security, de-mining and shipping services

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: The crisis highlights the continued vulnerability of the global energy system to geopolitical shocks and reinforces the importance of energy diversification
• Disruptions in major fossil fuel corridors can rapidly increase oil prices, raise transportation costs and slow economic activity
• A faster transition toward renewable energy, storage and electrification could reduce exposure to geopolitical risks linked to fossil fuel supply chains

At the same time, higher fossil fuel revenues during crises can strengthen incentives for continued oil and gas production, complicating efforts to accelerate decarbonisation

⏭️ What’s next: The main unresolved questions include Iran’s Revolutionary Guard acceptance of the terms of any agreement, how much control Tehran would retain over shipping, and a deal to reopen oil exports or ease wider US sanctions
• Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that even if the strait reopened immediately, rebuilding depleted oil inventories could take up to 18 months

💬 One quote: “By embedding a lasting role in the governance of Hormuz, Iran could preserve much of the influence it gained during the war without relying on continual military coercion.” — Trita Parsi, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft

📈 One stat: Around 15 million barrels of crude oil per day are currently affected by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz

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