America and China are shielding the world from an oil catastrophe

illuminem summarises for you the essential news of the day. Read the full piece on The Economist or enjoy below:

🗞️ Driving the news: Despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed during the Iran war, oil prices have stayed lower than many analysts expected, partly because the U.S. and China are helping cushion the global market.

🔭 The context: The closure is disrupting nearly 14 million barrels of oil per day, around 14% of global output
• However, Brent crude is trading near $107 a barrel, below the spike seen after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine
• The unexpected resilience suggests strategic reserves, redirected supply flows and demand management by major economies are helping prevent a full oil shock

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: The crisis exposes the fragility of fossil fuel dependence and global reliance on narrow energy chokepoints
• Even when prices are contained, supply disruptions reinforce the environmental and security case for accelerating renewables, electrification, storage and lower-oil transport systems

⏭️ What’s next: Markets will watch whether Washington and Beijing continue absorbing the shock if Hormuz remains closed
• If either country changes course, oil prices could rise sharply, intensifying pressure on households, industry and governments

💬 One quote: “The great oil-market mystery is deepening.” — The Economist

📈 One stat: Nearly 14 million barrels of oil per day are being lost while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

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